CFA Institute Investment Series
CONTENTS
Foreword xi
Acknowledgments xv
Introduction xvii
CHAPTER 1
The Equity Valuation Process 1
Learning Outcomes 1
1 Introduction 2
2 The Scope of Equity Valuation 3
2.1 Valuation and Portfolio Management 5
3 Valuation Concepts and Models 6
3.1 The Valuation Process 6
3.2 Understanding the Business 7
3.3 Forecasting Company Performance 9
3.4 Selecting the Appropriate Valuation Model 15
4 Performing Valuations: The Analyst’s Role and Responsibilities 23
5 Communicating Valuation Results: The Research Report 26
5.1 Contents of a Research Report 26
5.2 Format of a Research Report 28
5.3 Research Reporting Responsibilities 30
6 Summary 30
Problems 33
CHAPTER 2
Discounted Dividend Valuation 37
Learning Outcomes 37
1 Introduction 38
2 Present Value Models 39
2.1 Valuation Based on the Present Value of Future
Cash Flows 39
2.2 Streams of Expected Cash Flows 42
2.3 Discount Rate Determination 47
3 The Dividend Discount Model 56
3.1 The Expression for a Single Holding Period 56
3.2 The Expression for Multiple Holding Periods 58
4 The Gordon Growth Model 61
4.1 The Gordon Growth Model Equation 61
4.2 The Implied Dividend Growth Rate 67
4.3 Estimating the Expected Rate of Return with the Gordon
Growth Model 68
4.4 The Present Value of Growth Opportunities 70
4.5 Gordon Growth Model and the Price–Earnings Ratio 71
4.6 Strengths and Weaknesses of the Gordon Growth Model 73
5 Multistage Dividend Discount Models 74
5.1 Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model 75
5.2 Valuing a Non-Dividend-Paying Company (First-Stage
Dividend = 0) 78
5.3 The H-Model 79
5.4 Three-Stage Dividend Discount Models 80
5.5 Spreadsheet Modeling 83
5.6 Finding Rates of Return for Any DDM 84
5.7 Strengths and Weaknesses of Multistage DDMs 86
6 The Financial Determinants of Growth Rates 87
6.1 Sustainable Growth Rate 87
6.2 Dividend Growth Rate, Retention Rate, and ROE Analysis 89
6.3 Financial Models and Dividends 92
6.4 Investment Management and DDMs 94
7 Summary 95
Problems 98
CHAPTER 3
Free Cash Flow Valuation 107
Learning Outcomes 107
1 Introduction to Free Cash Flows 108
2 FCFF and FCFE Valuation Approaches 109
2.1 Defining Free Cash Flow 109
2.2 Present Value of Free Cash Flow 110
2.3 Single-Stage FCFF and FCFE Growth Models 112
3 Forecasting Free Cash Flow 113
3.1 Computing FCFF from Net Income 113
3.2 Computing FCFF from the Statement of Cash Flows 117
3.3 Noncash Charges 118
3.4 Computing FCFE from FCFF 122
3.5 Finding FCFF and FCFE from EBIT or EBITDA 127
3.6 Forecasting FCFF and FCFE 130
3.7 Other Issues with Free Cash Flow Analysis 134
4 Free Cash Flow Model Variations 140
4.1 An International Application of the Single-Stage Model 140
4.2 Sensitivity Analysis of FCFF and FCFE Valuations 141
4.3 Two-Stage Free Cash Flow Models 143
4.4 Three-Stage Growth Models 149
5 Non-Operating Assets and Firm Value 151
6 Summary 152
Problems 154
CHAPTER 4
Market-Based Valuation: PriceMultiples 165
Learning Outcomes 165
1 Introduction 166
2 Price Multiples in Valuation 167
3 Price to Earnings 169
3.1 Determining Earnings 170
3.2 Valuation Based on Forecasted Fundamentals 178
3.3 Valuation Using Comparables 181
4 Price to Book Value 194
4.1 Determining Book Value 197
4.2 Valuation Based on Forecasted Fundamentals 201
4.3 Valuation Using Comparables 202
5 Price to Sales 204
5.1 Determining Sales 205
5.2 Valuation Based on Forecasted Fundamentals 207
5.3 Valuation Using Comparables 209
6 Price to Cash Flow 210
6.1 Determining Cash Flow 212
6.2 Valuation Based on Forecasted Fundamentals 217
6.3 Valuation Using Comparables 218
7 Enterprise Value to EBITDA 218
7.1 Determining EBITDA 219
7.2 Valuation Based on Forecasted Fundamentals 224
7.3 Valuation Using Comparables 224
8 Dividend Yield 224
8.1 Calculation of Dividend Yield 224
8.2 Valuation Based on Forecasted Fundamentals 225
8.3 Valuation Using Comparables 225
9 International Valuation Considerations 226
10 Momentum Valuation Indicators 227
11 Valuation Indicators and Investment Management 231
12 Summary 233
Problems 236
CHAPTER 5
Residual Income Valuation 243
Learning Outcomes 243
1 Introduction 243
2 Residual Income 244
2.1 Commercial Implementations 247
3 The Residual Income Valuation Model 248
3.1 The General Residual Income Model 253
3.2 Fundamental Determinants of Residual Income 257
3.3 Residual Income Valuation in Relation to Other Approaches 258
4 Accounting and International Considerations 259
4.1 Violations of the Clean Surplus Relationship 261
4.2 Balance Sheet Adjustments for Fair Value 262
4.3 Intangible Assets 263
4.4 Nonrecurring Items 265
4.5 Other Aggressive Accounting Practices 266
4.6 International Considerations 266
5 Single-Stage Residual Income Valuation 267
6 Multistage Residual Income Valuation 269
7 Summary 274
Problems 276
References 281
Glossary 287
About the CFA Program 293
About the Authors 295
Index 297
智者不惑,仁者不忧,勇者不惧。