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Expect positive earnings and BV growth.We expect insurers to record relativelyflat earnings growth（ranging from -8% to +10% y-y）for 1H17 with stronginsurance sales and positive A-share performance（+3% in 1H17）offset bycontinued reserve top-up（Exhibit 4），improving from last year when earningswere down materially for most life insurers due to amounting reservingpressures from dropping yield.With help from rising market rates and a changein reserve valuation standards introduced by CIRC in early 2017，we see relievingpressure on insurers＇earnings for the next few quarters.While some investorsmay worry about short term losses from falling bond prices，our analysis showsthe impact is not material（mitigated by HTM accounting and reserve shadowadjustment for Par funds）and we still expect moderate book value growth forChinese insurers（at 0-9% in Exhibit 5）.
20170817-MORGAN_STANLEY-HONG_KONGCHINA_INSURANCE：HONG_KONGCHINA_INSURANCE-853166.pdf
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