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Part I: The Shenzhen Market 7
Q1: The Shenzhen Market: How is it different? 8
Welcome to Shenzhen: the new China 8
Shenzhen vs Shanghai: A tale of two cities 11
Q2: What about stocks in new economy sectors? 13
New economy sectors with high growth, earnings visibility and scarcity value 13
50 Representative stocks in the Shenzhen market 15
Q3: What are HSBC’s Top 5
Shenzhen stock picks? 17
Stock picks 17
Stock screens: Valuation, growth and liquidity 21
Q4: Are Shenzhen-listed stocks’ valuations justified? 25
How expensive are Shenzhen Ashares? 25
What explains Shenzhen’s high valuation 27
Q5: Why invest in Shenzhen, given the high valuation? 31
Low correlation 31
High dispersion 32
New economy exposure 32
Strong return 33
Opening the door for foreign
participation 34
Q6: Who are you trading against? 35
A market of retail investors 35
Domestic mutual funds 37
The “national team” 41
National Social Security Fund 43
Q7: What can we learn from QFII investors? 45
A change in investment style 45
QFII funds to find value in Shenzhen stocks 46
Q8: How will the SZHKSC impact MSCI A-share inclusion? 51
MSCI delays A-share inclusion in June 51
SZHKSC: A catalyst for the inclusion 51
Recent progresses from China’s authorities 52
Q9: What’s the long-term impact of global investors’ participation in the A-share market? 54
Correcting a mismatch 54
Foreign fund flows could reach USD500bn in 5-10 years 56
Changes in investor composition and investment style expected 56
Q10: What are the major risks of investing in A-shares? 59
Widespread share suspension 59
Selling pressure from corporate insiders 60
Corporate governance 60
Consensus ratings too aggressive and bullish 61
Part II: The Hong Kong Market 63
Q11: Why do we expect strong southbound flows? 64
Hong Kong market rally fuelled by strong southbound inflows 64
Southbound inflows less prefer financials in October 66
Headwinds in the near term, yet new round of inflows expected from beginning of 2017 69
Q12: Will the SZHKSC narrow or widen the A- and H-share price gap? 70
A-share and H-share price gap to narrow in the medium term 70
Parity expected in the long term 73
Q13: Why do we expect a style rotation from large-cap stocks to small/mid-caps in the Hong Kong market? 74
Style rotation from large-caps to midand small-cap expected 74
Southbound inflows’ interest on large-caps decreased in October 74
Q14: What’s the long-term impact of mainland investors’ participation in the Hong Kong market? 77
Change in investor mix may lead to re-rating of Hong Kong stocks 77
Southbound annual inflows of at least RMB200bn expected in the next five years 79
Q15: How do we play the launch of the SZHKSC? 80
Searching for vibrant mid-/smallcaps, attractive valuation and solid fundamentals 80
Our analysts’ preferred H-share plays from five key sectors 80
Stock screens: Valuation and fundamentals in small-caps space 84
Appendix 89
Appendix 1: Key features of the SZHKSC 90
Appendix 2: Whether SHHKSC northbound/southbound trading is profitable 91
Methodology 91
Southbound return still negative yet improving 91
Northbound investment has generated solid year-to-date returns 92
Appendix 3: A-share foreign ownership restrictions and general disclosures 93
Appendix 4: Corporate governance and information disclosure in SZSE 94
Appendix 5: HSBC Shenzhen Ashare coverage list 95
Appendix 6: HSBC HK small- and mid-cap coverage list 96
Disclosure appendix 101
Disclaimer 104
Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect-An essential guide.PDF
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