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英文文献：Policy Implications of Crop Yield and Revenue Variability at Differing Levels of Disaggregation-不同分类水平下作物产量和收入变化的政策含义
英文文献作者：Coble, Keith H.,Dismukes, Robert,Thomas, Sarah E.
英文文献摘要：
Revenue variability at different levels of aggregation has been the focus of several proposals to reform U.S. commodity programs with the 2007 farm bill. In this paper, we estimate revenue variabilityyear-to-year deviations from expected revenue for corn, soybeans, and cotton at four levels of aggregation: national, state, county and farm. We examine the factors that cause revenue variability and how differences across crops and regions would affect producers risks. We find that national-level revenue variability is nearly double national-level yield variability. Spatial disaggregation increases price and yield variability, but yield variability increases more rapidly than price and revenue variability. A hypothetical national-level revenue program would reduce risk at the average farm-level by slightly more than 8 percent for corn, about 7 percent for soybeans and about 21 percent for cotton. If one integrates farm-level revenue coverage with the national-level program the percent risk reduction more than doubles for both corn and soybeans. Although the increase in risk reduction between the simple national and the integrated program is proportionately less for cotton, the total risk reduction for cotton is the greatest among the three crops.
不同综合水平上的收入差异一直是2007年农业法案中几个改革美国大宗商品项目的建议的重点。在本文中，我们估计了玉米、大豆和棉花在国家、州、县和农场四个综合水平上的收入方差与预期收入的年度偏差。我们研究了导致收入差异的因素，以及不同作物和地区之间的差异如何影响生产者风险。我们发现，国家层面的收入变异性几乎是国家层面收益变异性的两倍。空间分解增加价格和收益变异性，但收益变异性比价格和收益变异性增长更快。一个假设的国家层面的收入计划将使玉米的平均风险降低略高于8%，大豆约为7%，棉花约为21%。如果将农业层面的收入覆盖范围与国家层面的项目相结合，玉米和大豆的风险降低比例将增加一倍以上。尽管对棉花而言，单一国家计划和综合计划降低风险的增加比例较小，但在三种作物中，棉花的总风险降低幅度最大。
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