nber2005年12月12日发布的行为经济学论文

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Investor Sentiment and Corporate Finance: Micro and Macro (182 K)

Owen A. Lamont, Jeremy C. Stein

NBER Working Paper No. 11882 Issued in December 2005 NBER Program(s): CF

---- Abstract -----

We document that net equity issuance is considerably more sensitive to aggregate stock returns and Q's than to firm-level stock returns and Q's. Very similar patterns also emerge when we look at merger activity. In light of earlier work (Campbell 1991, Vuolteenaho 2002) which finds that aggregate stock returns are less informative about future cashflows than are firm-level stock returns--and thus, potentially more strongly influenced by investor sentiment--these results suggest that both equity issuance and mergers are to a significant extent driven by market-timing considerations, as opposed to by purely fundamental factors.

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关键词：行为经济学论文 经济学论文 行为经济学 行为经济 NBER 论文 NBER 行为经济学

Thinking Ahead: The Decision Problem (352 K)

Patrick Bolton, Antoine Faure-Grimaud

NBER Working Paper No. 11867 Issued in December 2005 NBER Program(s): CF

---- Abstract -----

We propose a model of bounded rationality based on time-costs of deliberating current and future decisions. We model an individual decision maker’s thinking process as a thought-experiment that takes time and let the decision maker “think ahead” about future decision problems in yet unrealized states of nature. By formulating an intertemporal, state-contingent, planning problem, which may involve costly deliberation in every state of nature, and by letting the decision-maker deliberate ahead of the realization of a state, we attempt to capture the basic idea that individuals generally do not think through a complete action-plan. Instead, individuals prioritize their thinking and leave deliberations on less important decisions to the time or event when they arise.

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