发帖
雷达卡
英文文献：Changing Pattern in U.S. Apparel Trade Post-2008: Implications for U.S. Cotton-2008年后美国服装贸易格局的变化:对美国棉花的影响
英文文献作者：Mutuc, Maria Erlinda M.,Mohanty, Samarendu,Malaga, Jaime E.,Rejesus, Roderick M.
英文文献摘要：
In 1995, the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC) provided for the calculated liberalization of the textiles and apparel sectors over a 10-year period ending in 2005, except for some safeguard measures ending on December 31, 2008. These safeguard measures allowed for import restrictions by the U.S. on certain categories of cotton apparel from China. Using a 57-equation, annual econometric, price equilibrium simulation model of the U.S. cotton and cotton apparel markets, results point to lower cotton apparel prices in the U.S. by as much as $ 0.25 per kilogram while cotton prices decline by less than $ 0.01 per kilogram once these safeguards expire. In the baseline scenario, quotas are removed in 2009-2015 except for the safeguards. In the simulation, the safeguards are taken out beginning 2009. A number of empirical studies have been done to quantify and depict post-2008 trade patterns in the clothing sector but the implications for upstream sectors, particularly to the cotton industry, are still unclear. An overall increase in cotton apparel production post–2008 will increase demand for cotton. But with the shift of cotton clothing production from protected developed countries to previously constrained, developing countries, together with policies that favor domestic fiber producers with significant cotton production, the net effect of the safeguard measure removal becomes an empirical question. This study addresses this question in the context of the U.S. cotton industry. It provides a quantitative net impact of trade liberalization of cotton apparel on U.S. cotton production, consumption trade and prices. Couched in a partial equilibrium (PE) framework that (a) vertically links the downstream cotton apparel sector to the upstream cotton sector; and (b) horizontally links the U.S. with its representative trading partners in both the cotton and cotton apparel sectors, a four-region, two-market structural econometric model is developed. The regions include (1) China, (2) other quota-constrained exporters of cotton apparel to the U.S., (3) preferred partners of the U.S., and (4) the U.S. Each region is composed of two markets – cotton apparel and cotton. Markets are linked through cross-market price linkages. That is, resultant domestic prices for one market in a particular region determine the quantity supplied and demanded in the other market through cross-market prices. Each market across regions is linked through bilateral trade flows in the sense that a region’s exports in a particular market are equivalent to another region’s imports in the same market. For example, U.S. imports of apparel from China are equivalent to China’s exports of the same commodity to the U.S. In the baseline scenario, quotas are removed in 2005-2015 except for the safeguards. In the simulation, the safeguards are taken out beginning 2009. With the expiration of the safeguards in 2008, an influx of cheap apparel from China into the U.S. import market will lower domestic apparel prices by an annual average of $ 0.25 through 2015. Faced with cheaper imports, domestic apparel production is projected to contract by 2.28 million kilograms. With this cutback, domestic cotton mill use is likely to be reduced by 3.8 million kilograms. Meanwhile, 6.4 million kilograms of preferred countries’ exports to the U.S. is projected to be displaced which is likely to dampen these apparel suppliers’ demand for U.S. cotton by 310,000 kilograms. On average, however, this decline in U.S. mill use and export demand for U.S. cotton by preferred countries are estimated to be significantly offset by a net increase in the export demand for U.S. cotton traced to China and to other previously constrained countries. On the net, export demand for U.S. cotton will rise by about 3.27 million kilograms – 84 percent offset to the decline in domestic mill use. This is likely to lead to lower cotton prices by less than $0.01 per kilogram.
2008年后美国服装贸易格局的变化:对美国棉花的影响。1995年，《纺织品及成衣协定》订明，除截至2008年12月31日止的若干保障措施外，纺织品及成衣部门可在截至2005年的十年内按计算自由化。这些保障措施是美国对从中国进口的某些棉类服装实施进口限制的条件。通过对美国棉花和棉花服装市场的一个57方程、年度计量经济学、价格均衡模拟模型，结果显示，一旦这些保障措施到期，美国的棉花服装价格每公斤下降0.25美元，而棉花价格每公斤下降不到0.01美元。在基准情景下，除保障措施外，2009-2015年将取消配额。在模拟中，防护措施从2009年开始被取消。已经进行了大量的实证研究来量化和描述2008年后服装部门的贸易模式，但对上游部门，特别是对棉花行业的影响仍不清楚。2008年后棉花服装生产的全面增长将增加对棉花的需求。但是，随着棉花服装生产从受保护的发达国家转移到以前受到限制的发展中国家，再加上政策对国内棉花产量较大的纤维生产国的青睐，取消保障措施的净效果成为一个实证问题。本研究在美国棉花工业的背景下解决了这个问题。它提供了棉花服装贸易自由化对美国棉花生产、消费、贸易和价格的定量净影响。在部分均衡(PE)框架中提出(a)将下游棉花服装部门与上游棉花部门垂直连接;(b)将美国与其在棉花和棉花服装领域的代表性贸易伙伴横向联系起来，形成了一个四地区、两市场的结构性计量经济模型。这些地区包括(1)中国，(2)其他受配额限制的对美棉花服装出口商，(3)美国的首选合作伙伴，(4)美国。每个地区都由两个市场组成——棉花服装和棉花。市场通过市场间的价格联系而相互联系。也就是说，某一地区某一市场的国内价格通过跨市场价格决定了另一市场的供给量和需求量。各地区的每个市场都通过双边贸易流动联系在一起，即一个地区在某一特定市场的出口与另一地区在同一市场的进口是相等的。例如，美国从中国进口的服装相当于中国向美国出口的同一种商品。在基准情景下，除了保障措施外，2005-2015年取消了配额。在模拟中，防护措施从2009年开始被取消。随着2008年保障措施到期，从中国涌入美国进口市场的廉价服装，到2015年将使美国国内服装价格平均每年下降0.25美元。面对更便宜的进口，国内服装生产预计将收缩228万公斤。由于这一削减，国内棉纺厂的使用可能减少380万公斤。与此同时，出口大国对美国的640万公斤棉花预计将被取代，这可能会使这些服装供应商对美国棉花的需求减少31万公斤。不过，平均而言，美国棉纺厂使用量的下降以及优先国家对美国棉花出口需求的下降，预计将被中国和其他此前受到限制的国家对美国棉花出口需求的净增长所显著抵消。净而言之，美国棉花的出口需求将增加约327万公斤，抵消了国内棉纺厂使用量下降的84%。这可能导致棉花p值下降
京公网安备 11010802022788号
