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20180622【充实计划】第746期   [推广有奖]

61
myJGw 发表于 2018-6-22 18:22:49
昨日阅读1小时,累计阅读312小时

1. 今天阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接:
IBM PM Center of Excellence — Staying Relevant
https://www.pmi.org/learning/tra ... rojectified-podcast

2. 今天阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录:

Jim Boland
Yes, I think back 21 years ago, when as we were transforming and operating at scale, there was a lot of time and investment put in place to develop, I would call large industrialised methods and tooling, that would be able to scale to the size of IBM and to the volume of projects we're doing. I think now, the challenge is more around pace and is more around the rate of change that's happening in the marketplace. So I think one of our biggest challenges now is that perhaps 21 years ago, when we might have said, look, it's gonna take 18 months to develop a methodology, a common methodology, instead of process and work practices that we can roll out across all IBM. Now, we need to do something similar in a matter of weeks, or at the most months. So we're adopting much of an agile type way of working, we're moving from a transformation phase into an acceleration phase. So we are, the biggest challenge I see is that we have to change with the organisation and of course, with the world and how do we stay relevant? So the solutions of 21 years ago, some of them are absolutely still relevant today. So if you were running a project and you need help on how to manage stakeholders or financial planning, or scope, etc., of course, those work practices, they still remain relevant, but we need to build in much more agile ways of working. We need to enable our project managers who are entering the marketplace today, how do we make them successful, so how do we give them, and sometimes it's instead of selling them for example, historically you could say, let's take all our project managers and put them on a five day classroom course, that's just one example around education. Now you deliver that in 15, 30 minute soundbites. At the same time and parallel to continually helping them to learn and to develop and improve, but I think it's the rate and pace of change and then, of course, IBM is front and centre in this new world of digital transformation and digital disruption. Again, some of the projects we're working on today, our project managers are change agents, so they're in front of the customer and they're trying to help the customer understand their own journeys, so quite often customers are coming to us and saying, look, we need to adopt, we need to change, we need to very much bring new offerings to our customers and they're looking to IBM for help, of course and quite often, the project managers are there at the forefront and they're helping design those solutions, so they're being those change agents as well. So it's trying to balance in today's world, it's trying to balance and get the right balance between some of the traditional skills and expertise with what I call the new learnings and the new age skills, etc. So, and doing that at a pace that is very different to what it was 20 years ago.
Yes, it sure is and we need to bring the tools and the techniques and the work practices, we need to enable our project managers to succeed in that everyone and I think that's one of our biggest challenges. If I give you another one of the other things we're grappling with in IBM and I think in society at large, particularly in the more mature markets, so the likes of North America and Europe and Japan and a place like that, we're losing a lot of experience, so you have a lot of people who are coming to retirement age in the project management profession, who have 30, 40 years' experience. How do we make project management sexy? How do we make it cool and relevant to b who's leaving college today, who's 21 and wants to get into digital design, or IX or cloud or cognitive? How do we help them to, A, make project management successful, but even if they want to dedicate their careers to project management, they will still be able to manage projects. So we still need to develop their skills and learnings, etc. So I think part of the challenge we have is that if we fail, I think at some stage in the future is where it would actually come home to roost and that's the challenge, I think, we always have, is that tomorrow, or Monday or Tuesday, the company and the organisation will continue to work, but in five years' time, or ten years' time, when you look at some of the percentages of retirement age of our most experienced people, together with the challenges we have about attracting new entrants in the marketplace, to me it would turn into a ticking time bomb and so I think it's more of, you know, and the great thing about IBM and the senior executives in the organisation, they recognise that, so even though my success factors and my time frames are not measure in days, they're measure in months and years, it's great that that the organisation has the foresight to actually look that far ahead and make sure we avoid that Armageddon.
Yes, I think you need to sense check pretty frequently right, and there's balance and counterbalance, so we would have a number of different professions that operate within the IBM corporation and one of those, for example, would be the agile academy and quite often I look at the agile academy and it's a little bit of ying and yang going on, where they continually challenge and say, we need to do things faster, we need to do things quicker. What I do is go across those different academies and professions and try and go out and talk to the executives across the different brands and ensure that are we continuing to remain relevant. For example, our certification levels, are we actually making the profession attractive for people to enter? Are we actually making it attractive and incentivising people to actually invest in their careers, to learn the tooling, to adopt the methods and practices? Are we seeing a drop off in the structures around the tooling and the practices, etc? So you continually measure and monitor and it is about that relevancy, are the tools we use, are the methods and practices, is there something cooler and newer and fresher in the marketplace that we're seeing people migrate to? How do we arrest that before it gets too late? It's not about stopping people, it's about making sure that we offer the best products, the best methodologies, that the certification is attractive for people, that people see value in what we're doing. A lot of that, you just do by continually sense checking across the organisation.
Yes, I think we need to, with the people entering the workforce today, we need to look at it differently, and we need to come up with new thinking. So if you look at a linear career path, where you join a company in a particular role and you invest in your career over 20 years, that day is gone, so what we need to is we need to make it interesting and attractive for people entering the workforce today. IBM as a corporation is very good at doing this. For example, I can look at myself in the mirror and I've gone through this, where the role you might start doing is very different to the role you're going to end up doing in three or four years. So what you want to do, that linear part, I think is nearly over and if you look at an analogy, like if you look at something like Google Maps and you want to get from A to B. B, there are many different routes you can get there. So you don't have to say, well, here's my career path and it's mapped out and I see where I'm going for the next ten, 15 years, we need to give people the opportunity to move around, gain different experiences. We need to make sure they're learning those life skills, those business skills, those project management skills as they move around. So I see my remit, not just focus on bringing people into project management profession and keeping them there, my remit is how do I ensure that everybody entering IBM gets those project management skills and disciplines. Then in five or ten years, you're hoping and you're seeing that many of those folks say, well, you know what, I've tried this and I've tried that, I love project, management, I think I've gained the skills I want to invest, so I can now move around the different brands, but my career is in project management. So I'm looking in as much as giving people the skills and the expertise and recognising those, even if they don't call themselves a project manager today. So it's a slightly different way of thinking of it and a less linear approach.
I think what our project managers today need to have a much broader set of skills than the traditional project management skills of, for example, managing scope, managing budget, managing resources. Quite often and quite frequently, our project managers are now front and centre of the customer and they're talking across multiple different customer organisations, so they could be going in and they'd be talking with the marketing department, with the finance department, with the IT department, they have need to have skills in industry domains, so they need to be very comfortable talking about the financial sector and about banking, insurance, the healthcare sector, etc. Also, they need to be very comfortable in technologies as well and understanding what are the IBM offerings and how the IBM offerings can differentiate themselves in a customer environment. So that much more consultant type approach, much more change agent. So it's a much broader set of skills. Of course, we need to make sure those project managers continue to have those project management skills and techniques in their kit bag that they can take out and use, so they still need to be able manage scope, manage the finance and budget, but they need to be much more comfortable in a broader environment, broader context and be that trusted advisor and that change agent in front of the customer.
It is definitely a high bar and I think a challenge that we have is in a world that's moving so fast and where our customers are looking for that, looking for that expertise, looking for everybody to have a point of view and an opinion, one of the challenges to counteract that, or to help bring that balance, is for those people entering the workforce, we need to continue to provide a safe environment and give them the space and time to learn those skills and not expose them to something that they will drown in. I think that's a challenge that we have, not just my challenge or IBM's challenge, but I think it's a much broader challenge, where everything is going so fast now and our customers need solutions tomorrow. They need their partners, such as IBM to be very clear in their point of view and help them on that journey. At the same time, we need to provide a safe environment to give those people an opportunity to learn those skills and get comfortable in those environments and I think that's a challenge everyone has.
I think that's definitely one aspect, another aspect is around our agility, so we're on a journey and I'm very much, and this is the personal Jim Boland view, that some of the traditional waterfall methods of delivering projects, they're not going to go away, because we're talking to our customers and quite often, our customers are saying, I have a fixed budget, I need to get this done at this time, so we can't lose that set of skills and disciplines that have served us so well, but we are operating in this agile environment at the same time. So how do we balance some of the traditional ways of working with agile and with agility and things like, for example, all of our project managers now, in order to get certified, they all have to first get certified in design thinking, so that in itself, might sound like a small change, but that's pretty fundamental, so we're saying, you as a project manager needs to be able to demonstrate that you understand the design thinking concepts, you can run a design thinking workshop with our customer, so adopting agile of course as well, but adopting some of these new techniques and bringing them into the profession and forcing our project managers to think differently, to learn new skills, on top of their project management skills. So that idea of the agility, design thinking, all these new skills is a key change as well and that's a journey we're on. Then I think the third aspect, which goes back to an earlier conversation that we had was around, people entering the workforce today, who may put their hands up and say, you know what? I don't want to be a project manager and what I'll be saying is, that's fine, if you want to be a designer, software developer, architect, we will still develop your project management skills and techniques, we will continue to bring those offerings to you, you will need them. Then, at stage in the future, those people will turn around and say, you know what? Of all the jobs I've enjoyed over the last five years, this is the piece I enjoyed most, running a project and that'll be job well done for me.
I would say, be comfortable with change, so understand who to manage change, both you personally and within your environment, find a really good mentor, so find somebody who has been there, done that and help support you and then start building out your toolkit, start making sure you have the right tools and techniques and tips and tricks to help you be successful, or at least, to help you waffle through your first project, like I did.


3. 今天阅读的自我思考点评感想

1) 21 years ago challenge: transforming and operating at scale –to scale to the size of your business and to the volume of projects we're doing.
Now challenge: more around pace and the rate of change that's happening in the marketplace.
2) Continually measure and monitor the relevancy: e.g. what are the methods, what are the tools, what are the costs, what are the disciplines that they need to put in place.
3) Be a sexy project manager:  need to look at workforce differently, and need to come up with new thinking.
4) Shifting in the talent pool:  the project managers today need to have a much broader set of skills than the traditional project management skills. Quite often and quite frequently, project managers are now front and centre of the customer and they're talking across multiple different customer organisations.
5) Best piece of advice: be comfortable with change, so understand who to manage change, both you personally and within your environment, find a really good mentor.
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62
pdwno1 发表于 2018-6-22 19:25:39
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63
jjxm20060807 发表于 2018-6-22 19:39:08
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64
luojscd 发表于 2018-6-22 20:00:18
昨日阅读1小时,累计阅读174小时。
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65
rdatamgc 发表于 2018-6-22 20:59:49
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66
守候烟雨 发表于 2018-6-22 21:14:18
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67
chengli 发表于 2018-6-22 21:18:14
昨日阅读3小时,累计阅读363小时      
挑战第一百一十六天   读11页书,完成当日目标
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68
sunhui7108 发表于 2018-6-22 21:20:19
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69
sulight 学生认证  发表于 2018-6-22 21:47:20
今天学习和阅读约5小时,累计阅读约530小时。
学习和投资心得:
关于成长股和价值股的量化回测:
第一步是确定两个投资组合,首先我们从美国上市的中大盘股中用价值指标来筛选最便宜和最贵的那10%的股票,分别作为成长股和价值股的选股池。在模拟中我们选用了息税前利润市值比 (EBIT/TEV)。用别的指标比如市盈率、市净率都可以,不影响结果。第二步就是从这成长股和价值股的选股池中分别随机选取30只股票组成成长股1号和价值股1号,分别平均配比到每个股票。这就是我们选股的过程,其实就是随机但系统地去选取30个成长股和价值股。第三步,我们从1963年开始每个月都重复这种选股的过程,直至2013年结束,这样我们就产生了成长股1号51年的每个月回报和价值股1号51年的每个月的回报,因此我们可以算出成长股1号和价值股1号这51年的年化收益、风险(波动性)及最大回撤等衡量表现的指标。大家可以视为这是两个基金公司,一个专注成长股投资,一个专注价值股投资。第四步,重复这种模拟1000次,最后我们将拥有成长股及价值股1号、2号、3号到1000号这1000个组合的51年的年化收益、风险及最大回撤。
这样我们就模拟了1000个成长股基金公司和1000个价值股基金公司51年的表现。我们来看看结果:成长股跑赢大盘的概率小于10%。
最后我们有以下几点发现:
1. 成长股年化收益率聚集在8%至9%之间,平均年化收益率8.82%。价值股年化收益率聚集在17%-18%之间,平均年化收益率17.04%。
2. 同期美国标普500的年化收益率是10.32%,只有少部分成长股组合比它表现好,而所有1000个价值股组合全部回报高于同期标普500表现。
3. 成长股和价值股的分布图之间没有任何交集
最惊人的是第三点发现,想必大家都听过田忌赛马的故事。我扬长避短,用我的上等马跟你的中等马比,争取战略上的胜利。但在成长股和价值股的较量中,这成长股中千里挑一的最上等马也没有价值股中的最下等马跑得快。而且这次我们可以很肯定的下一个结论,成长股跑赢大盘是一个小概率事件(大概在6%左右)成长股风险几乎是市场两倍。
看完了回报,我们再来看下成长股组合的风险。同期美国标普500的风险是14.92%,可以看到成长股和价值股的风险都比标普500要高。但至少价值股的高风险有高回报作为补偿。成长股组合的平均风险是27.88%,几乎是标普500风险的两倍,而平均回报却还不到年化9%。成长股最大回撤高达90%。
总结
系统地投资成长股,长期来看大幅低于市场回报,伴随着巨大的尾部风险,甚至有破产的可能。
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70
alfredbloggs 发表于 2018-6-22 21:54:22 来自手机
充实每一天 发表于 2018-6-22 04:38
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