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英文文献：Risk, Overconfidence and Production in a Competitive Equilibrium-竞争均衡下的风险、过度自信和生产
英文文献作者：Just, David R.,Cao, Ying,Zilberman, David
英文文献摘要：
Previous studies have found underestimation of risk, or overconfidence, to be pervasive. In this paper, we model overconfidence as a reduction in perceived variance. We generalize the analysis of Sandmo and examine the effects of competition on firms displaying overconfidence. Cases for both competitive equilibrium and imperfect competition are investigated. We show that overconfidence may strictly dominate rationality in a competitive market by leading risk averse producers to invest greater amounts and produce more. This leads to a higher average profit, and greater variance of profits, leaving the producer a greater probability of surviving competitive pressures. Despite the greater variance of profits, if enough producers underestimate their risk, they should collectively drive more rational decision makers from the market. Our results suggest that overconfidence may be as important a determinant of market behavior as diminishing marginal utility of wealth.
之前的研究发现，低估风险或过度自信是普遍存在的。在本文中，我们将过度自信建模为感知方差的减少。我们对Sandmo的分析进行了推广，并考察了竞争对企业过度自信表现的影响。研究了竞争均衡和不完全竞争的情形。我们表明，在竞争市场中，过度自信可能会导致风险厌恶者投资更多、生产更多，从而严格控制理性。这导致更高的平均利润和更大的利润差异，使生产者更有可能生存竞争压力。尽管利润差异更大，但如果有足够多的生产商低估了自己的风险，它们应该会共同把更理性的决策者赶出市场。我们的结果表明，过度自信可能与财富边际效用递减一样，是市场行为的重要决定因素。
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