英文文献:The Impact of the Crude Oil Price on the Livestock Sector under a Regime of Integrated Energy and Grain Markets-在能源和粮食市场一体化的体制下,原油价格对畜牧业部门的影响
英文文献作者:Fabiosa, Jacinto F.
英文文献摘要:
The study finds that the emergence and expansion of the ethanol sector was associated with a fundamental transformation of the integration of the energy and agricultural sectors. In particular, the correlation structure between crude oil and grain prices increased dramatically, becoming more statistically significant, and with all anomalous signs corrected. Before the ethanol boom, the correlation of the crude oil price and corn was -0.117. It increased to 0.876 in the ethanol boom period. Soymeal correlation increased from 0.182 to 0.909, and distillers dried grains with solubles increased from -0.252 to 0.834. As a result, the energy market is also now impacting the livestock sector through feed costs, which account for more than half of total costs. From a weak correlation of the crude oil price and feed cost of 0.02, correlation increased to 0.89 during the ethanol boom period. Hence, any variability originating from the energy sector will also now have stronger ripple effects in the livestock sector.
研究发现,乙醇部门的出现和扩大与能源和农业部门一体化的根本转变有关。特别是,原油和粮食价格之间的相关结构显著增加,在统计上更加显著,所有异常迹象都得到纠正。在乙醇市场繁荣之前,原油价格和玉米价格的相关性为-0.117。在乙醇繁荣时期增加到0.876。豆粕的相关性从0.182增加到0.909,干酒糟与可溶性的相关性从-0.252增加到0.834。因此,能源市场目前还通过饲料成本影响了畜牧业,饲料成本占总成本的一半以上。原油价格与饲料成本的弱相关性从0.02上升到乙醇繁荣时期的0.89。因此,能源部门产生的任何变化现在也将在畜牧业部门产生更强的涟漪效应。


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