The Timing of Rapid Farmland Conversion Events: Evidence from California's ...

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英文文献：The Timing of Rapid Farmland Conversion Events: Evidence from California's Differential Assessment Program-农田迅速转变的时机:来自加州差异评估计划的证据
英文文献作者：Kovacs, Kent F.
英文文献摘要：
Using county-level panel data, we estimate duration models to study the timing of rapid farmland conversion events. Results suggest that income and the proximity to major highways are the principal determinants of rapid conversion events (and also responsible for prolonging these events). In particular, an increase in income of 1% is found to hasten the time to a rapid conversion event by 111% and to extend the time back to a slow state of conversion by 76%. On the other hand, valuable agricultural land and high property taxes extend the time to a rapid conversion event (and also hasten the time back to a slow state of conversion). An increase in the value of agricultural production per acre extends the time to a rapid conversion event by 14% and hastens the time to a slow state of conversion by 106%. Knowledge about the timing of rapid farmland conversion will help counties to better predict infrastructure needs and take steps to mitigate the traffic and environmental impacts.

利用县级面板数据，通过估计持续时间模型，研究了农田快速转换事件发生的时间。结果显示，收入和靠近主要高速公路是快速转换事件的主要决定因素(也导致了这些事件的延长)。特别地，收入增加1%会使快速转换事件的时间加快111%，并将时间延长到缓慢转换状态76%。另一方面，宝贵的农地和高财产税延长了快速转换的时间(也加速了转换的缓慢状态)。每英亩农业生产价值的增加使快速转化时间延长14%，使缓慢转化时间加快106%。了解快速农田转用的时机，将有助于各县更好地预测基础设施需求，并采取措施减轻交通和环境影响。

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