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英文文献：Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage between Energy and Agricultural Markets-生物燃料时代的大宗商品价格波动:对能源和农业市场之间联系的考察
英文文献作者：Hertel, Thomas W.,Beckman, Jayson F.
英文文献摘要：
Agricultural and energy commodity prices have traditionally exhibited relatively low – even negative correlation. However, the recent increases in biofuel production have altered the agriculture-energy relationship in a fundamental way. The amount of corn utilized for ethanol production in the US has increased from 5% in 2001 to over one-third by the end of the decade. This increase has drawn corn previously sold to other uses (exports, food, feed), as well as acreage devoted to other crops (e.g., oilseeds and other grains). In addition, there has been an increase in the demand for production inputs, especially fertilizers, which are heavily energy-intensive. In short, the previous “biofuel decade” has led to significant changes in the US, and indeed the global economy. In the next five years, the U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) envisions a further boost of ethanol production to 15 billion gallons per year. This might be expected to further strengthen the linkage between energy prices and agricultural commodity markets. However, unless oil prices rise sharply, it is likely that the RFS will be binding in 2015 – that is, the amount of ethanol consumed will be determined by government mandates rather than by the relative price of oil vs. corn-based ethanol. Under such a scenario, with an even larger share of corn production going to ethanol, and with that source of demand potentially becoming unresponsive to price, there is potential for significant increases in commodity market volatility. Indeed, we estimate that, in the presence of a binding RFS, the inherent volatility in the US coarse grains market will rise by about one-quarter. And the volatility of the US coarse grains price to supply side shocks in that market will rise by nearly one-half. Under a high oil price scenario, we expect that, rather than the RFS binding, the binding constraint is likely to be the “blend wall”, i.e. the legal % content of ethanol in gasoline used by regular automobiles. (This is currently set at 10%.) With a binding blend wall, we see similar, although somewhat smaller, increases in market volatility. If both the RFS and the blend wall are simultaneously binding, then US coarse grains price volatility in response to corn supply shocks is 57% higher than in the non-binding case, and world price volatility is boosted by 25%. In short, we envision a future in which agricultural price volatility – particularly for biofuel feedstocks – will depend critically on renewable energy policies. Indeed, these may dominate the traditional importance of agricultural commodity policies in many markets.
传统上，农产品和能源大宗商品价格表现出相对较低的水平，甚至是负相关关系。然而，最近生物燃料生产的增加从根本上改变了农业和能源的关系。在美国，用于乙醇生产的玉米数量已经从2001年的5%增长到本世纪末的三分之一以上。这一增长吸引了以前出售给其他用途(出口、食品、饲料)的玉米，以及用于种植其他作物(如油籽和其他谷物)的面积。此外，对生产投入的需求有所增加，特别是对能源高度密集的肥料的需求。简而言之，上一个“生物燃料十年”给美国乃至全球经济带来了重大变化。根据美国可再生燃料标准(RFS)的设想，在未来五年内，乙醇产量将进一步提高到每年150亿加仑。这可能会进一步加强能源价格和农产品市场之间的联系。然而，除非石油价格大幅上涨，否则可再生燃料标准很可能在2015年生效——也就是说，乙醇的消耗量将由政府指令决定，而不是由石油与玉米乙醇的相对价格决定。在这种情况下，随着更大比例的玉米被用于生产乙醇，而这种需求来源可能对价格不再敏感，大宗商品市场的波动性有可能大幅增加。事实上，我们估计，在具有约束力的可再生燃料指标存在的情况下，美国粗粮市场的内在波动性将上升约四分之一。而美国粗粮价格的波动性对该市场的供给侧冲击将上升近一半。在高油价情景下，我们预计约束不是RFS约束，而是“混合墙”约束，即普通汽车使用的汽油中乙醇的法定含量%。(目前设置为10%。)在绑定混合墙的情况下，我们看到类似的市场波动加剧，尽管有所减小。如果RFS和混合墙同时绑定，则美国粗粮价格应对玉米供应冲击的波动性比未绑定时提高57%，而世界价格波动性提高25%。简而言之，我们设想的未来是，农业价格波动——尤其是生物燃料原料的价格波动——将主要取决于可再生能源政策。事实上，在许多市场上，这些因素可能主导着农业大宗商品政策的传统重要性。
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