20181016【充实计划】第861期

昨日阅读1小时，累积阅读515小时

昨日阅读时间1小时，累计阅读时间364小时

昨日阅读时间1小时，累计阅读时间364小时

昨天阅读3小时，累计阅读301小时。

Greene Robert的新书The Law of Human nature将在10月23日发售，期待早日阅读。
整理部分阅读摘要如下：
There are no principles; there are only events. There is no good and bad, there are only circumstances. The superior man espouses events and circumstances in order to guide them. If there were principles and fixed laws, nations would not change them as we change our shirts and a man cannot be expected to be wiser than an entire nation.
I thought to myself with what means, with what deceptions, with how many varied arts, with what industry a man sharpens his wits to deceive another, and through these variations the world is made more beautiful.
The most important of these skills, and power’s crucial foundation, is the ability to master your emotions. Anger is the most destructive of emotional responses, for it clouds your vision the most. Love and affection are also potentially destructive, in that they blind you to the often self-serving interests of those whom you least suspect of playing a power game.
Related to mastering your emotions is the ability to distance yourself from the present moment and think objectively about the past and future. Like Janus, the double-faced Roman deity and guardian of all gates and doorways, you must be able to look in both directions at once, the better to handle danger from wherever it comes. Such is the face you must create for yourself—one face looking continuously to the future and the other to the past.
Power requires the ability to play with appearance. To this end you must learn to wear many masks and keep a bag full of deceptive tricks. Deception is a developed art of civilization and the most potent weapon in the game of power.
  Power is essentially amoral and one of the most important skills to acquire is the ability to see circumstances rather than good or evil. Power is a game—this cannot be repeated too often—and in games you do not judge your opponents by their intentions but by the effect of their actions. You measure their strategy and their power by what you can see and feel.
What does it matter if another player, your friend or rival, intended good things and had only your interests at heart, if the effects of his action lead to so much ruin and confusion? It is only natural for people to cover up their actions with all kinds of justifications, always assuming that they have acted out of goodness. You must learn to inwardly laugh each time you hear this and never get caught up in gauging someone’s intentions and actions through a set of moral judgments that are really an excuse for the accumulation of power.
It is a game. Your opponent sits opposite you. Both of you behave as gentleman or ladies, observing the rules of the game and taking nothing personally. You play with a strategy and you observe your opponent’s moves with as much calmness as you can muster. In the end, you will appreciate the politeness of those you are playing with more than their good and sweet intentions. Train your eye to follow the results of their moves, the outward circumstances, and do not be distracted by anything else.

昨日阅读0.5小时，累计阅读125.5小时。

昨天阅读3小时，累计15小时。

昨日阅读时间1小时，累计阅读时间143小时

今天学习和阅读约5小时，累计阅读约1110小时。
学习和投资心得：
调整投资心态：1. 不加杠杆不借钱。在熊市中，那些意志坚定，对未来充满信心的人，尽管他们的大局观是对的，当我们知道，熊市是特别磨人的，往往应针的是凯恩斯那句话，市场保持非理性状态的时间可能比你保持不破产的时间更长。每个月融资的利息，补仓会耗光你的盈利，甚至导致本金永久性亏损。也是巴菲特告诫大家：一个人一生只要富一次就好了，慢慢变富才是王道。如果因为加杠杆，可能你会一次性赚的盆满钵满，但也可能一次性让你输的倾家荡产，我们谨记，保护本金最重要，慢慢变富，一次就好。2. 选择好的生意。有些公司在做生意的时候，就是可以在相同净资产的条件下，赚取更多的钱（有更高的roe）。比如说白酒的生意，龙头茅台五粮液，游戏行业的网易腾讯，美国的菲利普莫里斯，可口可乐，就是能让人成瘾有些生意，想不赚钱都是很难的。反观那些完全竞争市场下的行业，纺织，印刷等等，同质化竞争要获得高的roe是非常困难的，这也就是为什么芒格提倡“经济商誉”在不同的行业里面很重要。我对行业没有偏见，只是相信所有企业赚的钱都是一样的，所以买入一家在良好赛道的公司是非常重要的。3. 选择你搞得清楚的公司。知之为知之，不知为不知，做自己有把握的事情，才是重要的。而且我们要对我们懂得企业有信心，正所谓时间是优秀公司的朋友，垃圾公司的敌人嘛。苹果的毛利率将近40%，小米的连10%都不到，哪个生意好不言而喻，没有提价权，是很难在行业长期生存下来的。有些人懂茅台，茅台的护城河是他的品牌影响力和提价权。有人懂腾讯，腾讯拥有中国最低成本的流量，而流量数据是未来最值钱的东西。有人懂阿里巴巴，亚马逊，他们是最具战略领先思维，未来新零售的代表。每个人都有自己的能力圈，每个人的能力圈都是不一样的。很多人说老巴错过了科技股，但是你想想，如果他如果没有错过科技股，可能连前面的成就都没有，别说能在资本市场活到现在。真正的伟大就在于不懂不做，坚守在自己的能力范围之内。只有认识到这一点，你才会不以涨喜，不以跌忧，真正的理性看待投资，才能不再恐慌的时候割肉，心态才会好。4. 追求一个正常的收益。很多人会想，来股市投资动不动就说要一年翻倍，但是你这样想，如果人人都有这种本领，那其他生意都不用做了，都来炒股好了。而且，我们可以对比世界最优秀的投资家，长期的业绩也就是在20%，尽管考虑了资金体量的不同，但我认为，个人可以做到每年15%到25%收益是很不错的了。只有你想明白了市场在少数的时间内完成大部分的上涨的道理，你才会心态平和，宠辱不惊。5. 买在低估值，拥抱安全边际。没有一个人可以准确的预估到一个企业的真正内在价值，所以你买的时候要打折扣，像现在，很多优秀的公司已经出现了罕见的投资价值。宏观，市场变的因素很多，美债又涨了，gdp增长率又跌了，cpi，pmi，ppi又到荣枯线下了等等，我们很难去把握，也很难去做预测，所以买在低估值也可以说是投资诺亚方舟的一个坚固底板吧。而且，你的心态也会好很多。6. 你对未来要有信心。也许你会对市场急剧下跌会恐惧，但你要想想，未来国家的发展是不是越来越好，行业是不是越来越广阔，企业的盈利是不是越来越多，关注大局，别捡了芝麻，对了西瓜。这些关于未来的东西想清楚了，你也许就会有好的心态。7. 与同行的朋友多交流。交流可以抒发你的悲观情绪，更加关注本质的东西。雪球是一个好的平台，有很多牛人，有很多价值派，有优秀抗压能力，深谋远虑的优秀投资者，向他们学习，关注投资本质，远离市场喧嚣。相信如果你信奉“牛市赚钱，熊市赚股”的投资哲学，相信你在熊市你的心态也不会差到哪里去。

昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读60小时
小目标甩腿200下完成

昨日阅读时间1小时，累计阅读时间218小时