Identification in Macroeconomics-JEP-2018

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Identification in Macroeconomics

• Emi Nakamura
• Jón Steinsson
  
• JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES
• VOL. 32, NO. 3, SUMMER 2018
• (pp. 59-86)
• AbstractThis paper discusses empirical approaches macroeconomists use to answer questions like: What does monetary policy do? How large are the effects of fiscal stimulus? What caused the Great Recession? Why do some countries grow faster than others? Identification of causal effects plays two roles in this process. In certain cases, progress can be made using the direct approach of identifying plausibly exogenous variation in a policy and using this variation to assess the effect of the policy. However, external validity concerns limit what can be learned in this way. Carefully identified causal effects estimates can also be used as moments in a structural moment matching exercise. We use the term "identified moments" as a short-hand for "estimates of responses to identified structural shocks," or what applied microeconomists would call "causal effects." We argue that such identified moments are often powerful diagnostic tools for distinguishing between important classes of models (and thereby learning about the effects of policy). To illustrate these notions we discuss the growing use of cross-sectional evidence in macroeconomics and consider what the best existing evidence is on the effects of monetary policy.
• Citation[size=1em]Nakamura, Emi, and Jón Steinsson. 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics." [size=1em]Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32 (3): 59-86.DOI: 10.1257/jep.32.3.59
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此文在最后总结时，非常有意思，把宏观经济学和气象学进行了类比。认为二者至少有两个方面的共同点：第一、两个学科里都处理高度复杂的一般均衡系统；宏观经济学往往处理多方程非线性随机系统，而气象学往往需要处理高维偏微分方程系统；第二、对于长期预测，二者都面临不少困难。或者说宏观经济学和气象学都不能很好的处理长期预测问题。这个非常容易理解，不论是对经济增长或波动，抑或是天气预报的长期提前预测，都会碰到很大困难，即预测的准确性问题。往往随着时间的增加，预测的准确性就越低。

文章最后还总结道：很不幸的是，如今宏观经济政策的讨论仍被意识形态左右。政治家、决策者甚至一些学者仍然坚持认为宏观经济政策如何施行是基于信念（faith），而非经验证据（evidence）。而这一可怜境地得以持久存在的唯一原因是：我们关于不同宏观经济政策的施行效果（Consequences）的经验证据仍就很不完美，并受到严肃的批评和质疑。但作者仍对这一领域充满信心和希望，认为有关宏观经济运行的更多可靠的经验证据以更快的速度被发现。假以时日，我们会对经济运行有更好、更深入的理解，此时宏观经济学中崇拜“雨神”（rain gods）的现象会越来越少，转而更多的依赖于令人信服的经验证据。
此处的雨神是类比。在很久以前，人们对于气象知识的掌握很少，因此会出现“拜神求雨”这一现在看起来令人匪夷所思的事情。因此此处提及“雨神”二字，言下之意在于宏观经济政策的讨论被意识形态左右是可以理解的，因为目前我们对宏观经济运行的可靠经验证据还不完美，还有待于深入探究。随着更多经验证据的掌握，不应该再出现崇拜“雨神”的荒唐事情。