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Invest Like a Guru – How to generate higher returns at reduced risk with value investing 2017(Charlie Tian)
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6755810-1-1.html (Page 60-83)
Buy only Good Companies- where to find them part 2
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
Charlie Munger said: “You don’t have to know everything. A few really big ideas carry most of the freight.” Peter Lynch can make money anywhere; he knows about every industry and how to succeed in every investing situation, and he owns thousands of stocks. But you don’t have to be like Lynch or you are not as rich as Lynch (at least now). An asset play is the situation that occurs when a company is sitting on something valuable, but this is not reflected in its stock price. These days, the valuable assets are often understated real estate. This refers to the deep-bargain investing where the stock price is much lower compared to the asset value, net current asset value, or net-net working capital of the business. Unless the situation is extremely liquid and takes a short time to liquidate, or the business itself is decent and generates enough cash flow to be self-sustaining, investors should avoid investing in asset plays altogether.
Investors should also distinguish a market manipulation from a true turnaround, as both can result in the collapse of stock prices. This happened to Fairfax Financial, a Canadian insurance
company founded by value investor Prem Watsa, who got into the insurance business under the influence of Buffett. Watsa became a successful value investor after studying Benjamin Graham and John Templeton.
The cyclicity of businesses deserves further consideration. It is one of the first things Yacktman looks at in a business. He prefers businesses with a long product cycle and short consumer purchase cycle, which means businesses that are not cyclical. As pointed out by Marks, most things are cyclical, as illustrated in the net income of different sectors in the following. At the bottoms of the cycles, demand for the products slows. A small decline in sales can translate into huge drops in the profits of the business because the cost cannot be reduced as quickly as the demand, and the reduction of the cost itself costs money. Because of the nature of business, some industries can never produce consistently good returns for their shareholders. Buying good companies means avoiding these industries altogether. I have mentioned cyclical industries such as autos, airlines, chemicals, steel, and energy. I now want to examine in further detail the cyclicity of certain businesses. Munger mentioned in the 2016 shareholder meeting of Daily Journal Inc., for which he serves as chairman: I don’t think anybody could ever buy a bank who doesn’t have a feeling for how really shrewd the management is. Banking is a field where it’s easy to delude yourself into reporting big numbers that aren’t really being earned. It’s a very dangerous place for an investor. Without deep insight into banking, you should avoid it.
Warren Buffett calls it “foolish.” Yacktman likens it to a factory that is idle but the machines can be cheaply bought. Remember Sears? As this writing progresses, Sears is still unlocking value.” But, “It’s taking much longer than we thought,” as Bruce Berkowitz admitted in his 2016 semi-annual shareholder letter, published July 28, 2016, and which can be translated into “It is eroding more value than we thought.” Avoid asset plays.
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Investors should avoid the companies in the highly cyclical sectors such as basic materials, computer hardware, telecom, and semiconductor companies, no matter how attractive the opportunities appear. The nature of these businesses is simply prohibitive for anyone to build consistently profitable companies. The sectors of consumer defensive and healthcare are almost noncyclical. They represent better places to find great companies with high returns and consistent profitability.
If betting on picking the best performers is like shooting for the stars, buying good companies at fair prices is like shooting fish in a barrel. You may not get the star performers, but you get a lot of decent ones such as retail chain Dollar Tree and baking soda and condom maker Church & Dwight. More importantly, you avoid a lot of deep losses. By buying only good companies, we are focusing on a much better neighborhood of the investing universe. We are trying to eliminate the chance of losing money by buying those that have already proven themselves. We have a much smaller universe than Lynch in picking stocks. We want to stay in the proximity of good companies. We don’t want to get into situations where we have high odds of losing money.
What counts for most people in investing is not how much they know, but rather how realistically they define what they don’t know. An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he or she avoids mistakes, or commit any big mistakes.
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