20190210【充实计划】第978期

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读174小时。

今日阅读一小时，Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness，7%->10%,累积阅读时间23小时。

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读403小时.

昨天阅读2个小时，累积26个小时

在现代宏观经济学框架下，关于金融变量和实体经济之间的关系，主流宏观经济学是通过总供给线和总需求曲线进行分析的。从模型演变的基本路径来看，最初的模型仅仅是关于利率、通胀和产出之间的关系，之后又加入了汇率等因素。早起研究认为，由于货币需求函数的不确定性，使用货币供给量来判断货币政策和未来的通胀压力在一些国家是不合适的。因此，很多的央行纷纷采取的是通胀目标制。Rudebusch和Svensson的模型表明，短期利率影响产出缺口，产出缺口对未来的通胀膨胀形成压力，而加入汇率则可将这一分析拓展到开放经济道中。在Ball（1998）和Svensson（2000）的模型中，由于实际汇率会影响净出口，开放经济中的总需求同时受到短期实际利率和实际汇率的影响，如果利率平价条件成立，那么汇率就可以通过传导对通胀和产出产生影响。
Smets（1997）认为，除了汇率之外，研究者必须考虑更为广泛的金融变量。从财富效应的角度来看，房地产和股票价格会影响私人部门财富，进而影响消费需求。从资产负债表角度而言，家庭或公司净资产的下降就意味着可抵押资产的减少，逆向选择和道德风险问题变得严重，而资产价格上涨会让家庭或公司的净资产升值，从而提高其借贷能力，而这些额外增加的信用又可以进一步转化为消费和产出增长。

昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读334小时。
昨天继续学习经济思想，了解了经济学中凯恩斯学派的思维，1933年，美国失业人口达1300万人，相当于工人总数的四分之一。在一些城市失业人口达到了50%。当美国在经济危机的泥淖中苦苦挣扎时，英国经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）试图找寻问题的答案。凯恩斯相信19世纪经济学家们创立的传统经济学已无法解释20世纪30年代的经济危机，也无法解释富裕国家破产的原因。凯恩斯认为，经济衰退并非是因为笨手笨脚的ZF，也不能怪虐待工人的商人。没有人做错任何事，但是出于某种原因，经济整体可能出现了差错，它会因为自身的问题最终停滞不前。传统经济学理论致力于如何使用稀缺资源，传统经济学理论认为国民收入仅仅等于工厂和工人生产的价值。它假设所有的工厂都满负荷运转，所有工人都有工作。凯恩斯观察到问题的症结不在于资源的稀缺性，而是如何使用已经存在的资源。人们需要靴子、帽子和车，生产它们的工人和工厂随处可见。但不知为何，人们的需求和经济生产之间的联系被切断了。在凯恩斯看来，利息并不能有助于将多余的储蓄转为投资。事实上，储蓄和投资之间并没有关联。凯恩斯认为，当流出量（储蓄）大于流入量（投资）时便会发生经济衰退，也就是说衰退的原因是人们选择储蓄，而不是支出。古典经济学家们觉得如果商人停止投资，经济便会自行调整，就像不倒翁一样，凯恩斯则认为，一旦经济陷入衰退就无路可逃。正是由于凯恩斯，经济学家们不久便在一件事上达成了一致：大萧条时期以及此后数次衰退期间出现的百万失业人口是支出变少的牺牲品。他的理论还有一个重要的意义：在他之后，经济学被划分为“宏观经济学” 行研究，比如他帮助改善的就业水平）和“微观经济学”（microeconomics，研究个体消费者和企业如何做出选择）。

今天阅读1小时，持续每天阅读累计121小时。

充实每一天 发表于 2019-2-10 06:12
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昨日学习和阅读共2个小时，累计6个小时

昨日阅读1小时。 总阅读时间112小时
Invest Like a Guru – How to generate higher returns at reduced risk with value investing 2017(Charlie Tian)
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6755810-1-1.html (Page 168-180)
Market Cycles and Valuations

阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
To value investors, there is no stock market. There is just a market of stocks in which investors can trade. Stock market moves are the collective movements of individual stocks. Yet, many players are guided by what others do in the market, and their movements form a tide resembling a stock market. Also, as more investors trade market index ETFs and care little about the individual stocks within the ETFs, the stocks tend to move together in one direction. That is probably the stock market that people talk about. Though I don’t know where the market will go in the short term, I have learned a few things about the stock market that I consider important even for value investors who don’t pay too much attention to the overall market: (1) over the long term, the stock market always goes up; (2) the stock market has cycles; and (3) higher current market valuation results in lower returns in the future and vice versa. Having a good understanding of these principles can be useful during extreme times.
Over the long term, the stock market as a whole always goes up. This seems obvious. But investors tend to forget it when things get scary; it is during these tough times that investors most need conviction and optimism. The direction of the stock market is nothing but ups and
downs of the total market value of the companies that supply us with what we need in life, directly or indirectly. Over time, these companies will produce more products and provide more services due to the growth of the population and the improvement of living standards. The average prices of their products will go up due to inflation. The overall revenue and profit will increase, and they will be worth more over time. At times, the market value has gone down, sometimes by a lot, or has hovered around certain levels for a long while. Market crashes can be painful. The media make it sound like the world will end and everything will go to zero. But if we look back, every one of these crashes posed opportunities to put money in stocks for great returns. Undoubtedly, the market will crash again, but over the long term, humans will consume more products and services than they do today. The economy will generate more profit and become more valuable. Investment return is inversely proportional to the price you pay. The lower the price you pay, the higher return you get. A stock market crash is nothing but a time when others are willing to sell their shares that will be worth more on the cheap, presenting you with opportunities for hefty returns. Buying when the mass is selling makes a significant difference on your investment returns.
Though the market will assuredly be higher in the future, the ride won’t be smooth. It will always go through cycles of extreme rollercoaster ups and downs, except this ride will end at gradually higher levels. People tend to forget that the sun will come out again during times that seem endlessly dark; they also forget that bright daylight doesn’t last forever during good times. It is cyclical.
Just like a physical pendulum, the market spends the least amount of time in the middle. Since the end of World War II, there have been ten bear markets—defined as declines of 20 percent or more in the S&P 500 Index. Additionally, the market has had 24 corrections—defined as declines of 10 percent or more in the S&P 500 Index. It has gone through just as many bull markets, with periods during which the S&P 500 doubled without correction.

阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
As a group, company insiders such as corporate executives and those on the board of directors act much more rationally during market crashes. This may not be surprising; they are more business savvy and are better able to use public information to analyze businesses. More importantly, they are now dealing with their own money. An earlier study found that insiders are mostly value investors. They are net buyers of relatively low P/E stocks and net sellers of relatively high P/E stocks, and they tend to sell more when market valuation is high and buy more during market selloffs. Immediately after Black Monday on October 19, 1987, when the Dow lost 22.6 percent, insiders were heavy buyers (90% being buyers). October 20, 1987, had more insiders buying than any other day during the study period from 1975 to 1989. Given the insiders’ knowledge of their companies, this buying suggests that the collapse was an irrational reaction to the stock price declines over the previous two weeks. Insiders acted quickly and grasped the opportunity. The data over the past decade demonstrates that the behavior of insiders has not changed from 30 years ago. Insiders don’t join the crowd in market selloffs. Only the open market sells of insiders are counted. No weight was given in the data to the numbers of shares sold or the dollar amount.
Understanding the economic cycles and market valuation will not help anyone predict the direction of the market in the short term or even in midterms like a year or two. But it keeps investors from looking in the rearview mirror. They will have a clearer view of the future and be able to stay rational when the market gets euphoric or sinks into fear again. For analyzing individual companies, having a good knowledge of business cycles and the likely future market returns can be  useful in evaluating management’s capital allocation decisions, their aggressiveness in accounting, and the quality of earnings related to pension-fund return assumptions. Buffett calls himself a bottom-up value investor and rarely talks about the general market. But he has a tremendous understanding of business cycles, the role of interest rates, market valuations, and the likely future returns and risks. A good book to read about this topic is Marks’s The Most Important Thing, which I strongly recommend. Over the long term, we should always be optimistic. At the current late stage of the business cycle, investors should stay defensive and be prepared for the next downcycle. They should focus their investments on the quality companies that not only can pass the test of bad times, but also can come out stronger. Now, more than any other time in the past decade, it is vital to invest only in good companies.

充实每一天 发表于 2019-2-10 06:12
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阅读1小时，累积阅读138小时

昨日阅读1小时，2019年累计阅读43小时。继续分享《薛兆丰经济学讲义》
寻租概念的特定含义
上一讲我们解释了，只要能够带来收入的资源都叫资产，而对资产的付费就叫租。照理说，寻找能够带来收入的资产，是人类共同的行为。但图洛克指出，这些行为可以明显地分为两类。其中一类，是类似医生研制出治疗癌症的药物、歌星迈克尔·杰克逊改善自己舞姿的行为；而另外一类，是好像某个年轻人花了十年青春在官僚机构里谋取了一份正式的闲职的行为，或者像某家公司通过公关手段拿下垄断经营权的行为。
这两种行为，表面上看都是在努力工作，但实际上它们对社会财富有不同的意义。前者增加了社会财富，而后者消耗了社会财富。
在经济学界，“寻租”这个词则专指后者的行为，即那些向政府争取优惠政策，让自己得到好处，同时导致社会总资源发生耗散的行为。在很多国家，由于制度设计不当，寻租行为非常普通。这解释了为什么在这些国家里，人们虽然每天都很忙，但整个国家却非常穷。
我的感悟：
1、以前我的概念里面只有占有和共享的概念，经过这章学习，我有一个租的概念，从很多方面来讲，和沉没成本联系起来，你所拥有的东西，也可能产生成本，例如我们的手机号，我们其实并不占有手机号，一直付钱在租；
2、寻租，在传统意义里面，我们说，努力了就能产生回报，其实有些动作是负动作，产生资源的浪费和内耗；
3、站在社会总资源上看，有些我们认为合理的事情，实际是在消耗资源。