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20190212【充实计划】第980期   [推广有奖]

jinshun 发表于 2019-2-12 15:11:57 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
昨日阅读1小时,累积阅读31小时
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confused_ddk 发表于 2019-2-12 15:13:14 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
今日阅读一小时,Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness,12%->14%,累积阅读时间25小时。
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不四 发表于 2019-2-12 15:33:03 来自手机 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
充实每一天 发表于 2019-2-12 05:19
【加入充实计划】【了解充实计划】
|新充实挑战|    |每日计划清单|
| 【充实积累】| |【充实挑战项目】| ...
<span style=\"font-size:1.00em;\">昨天阅读0.5小时,累计阅读117小时</span>
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edmcheng 发表于 2019-2-12 15:34:25 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
昨日阅读1小时。 总阅读时间115小时
The business of value investing – Six essential elements to buying companies like Warren Buffett- Charlie Tian 2009
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-695143-1-1.html(Page 19-26)
Introduction & Invest in the Business, buy the stock; Stock Prices are more noise than information
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
How to think about investing intelligently? Due to the unrivalled success of investor Warren Buffett, value investing has become the only intelligent manner in which to approach investing. The philosophies of value investing emphasize an approach that focuses on preservation of capital, risk aversion, discipline, and avoidance of crowd psychology. Contrary to the academic belief that greater return can only be achieved by taking on greater risk, value investing confirms that returns can be maximized by taking on very little relative risk. Reciting the value investing rhetoric is one thing, but doing it is something else entirely. Value investor Seth Klarman of the Baupost Group suggests that the philosophies of value investing may very well be genetically determined: “When you first learn of the value approach, it either resonates with you or it doesn’t.” My interpretation of Klarman’s assessment is that the foundations of value investing — patience, discipline, and risk aversion —aren’t subjects that are taught in school. You either possess them or you don’t. Business schools can teach how to analyze a business and how to value a business, but they can’t teach your patience or discipline to say no to a popular security. More so, business schools can’t teach you to have the courage to make a significant investment during the maximum point of pessimism. Education is invaluable and certainly aids in investment success, but it’s not the sole determinant of investing acumen.
To define and examine the essential framework that encompasses the foundation of value investing, like a golf swing, value investing is most effective when mastery of the essential elements come together to produce a consistently reliable result. It centers on the concept that successful value investors have an ingrained mental framework through which all investment decisions are contemplated. This framework stems from Benjamin Graham, who told us in The Intelligent Investor that “investment is most intelligent when it is most business like.” When examining the performance and method of operation for today ’ s most successful investors — Warren Buffett, Mason Hawkins, Seth Klarman, Bruce Berkowitz, and others — their results stem from their ability to consistently apply the same fundamental approach to investing time and time again. In analyzing such an approach, the central concepts of value investing come down to six fundamental elements. For value investing to be intelligent and successful, six essential elements are required. Analyze the investment approach of any successful value - oriented investor and you will observe that, like water, the basic elements exist. While these elements can be identified individually, it’s critical to understand that all six elements come together to form a complete mental framework. Of even greater value, they can serve to spot any faults or mistakes that were made in making an investment. Find an investment mistake that you made and odds are that one of these elements was compromised.
These six elements in order are:
1. Develop a sound investment philosophy.
2. Have a good search strategy.
3. Know how to value a business and assess the quality of management.
4. Have the discipline to say no.
5. Practice the art of patience.
6. Have the courage to make a significant investment at the point of maximum pessimism.
Successful investors take the above six elements and incorporate them in their investment decision making. The order is significant. Potential investors should not even attempt to seriously invest without first developing a sound investment philosophy. Developing such a sound philosophy — loss avoidance, risk aversion, avoidance of crowd psychology, and staying within one ’ s circle of competence — is the fundamental building block for everything going forward. A successful and fruitful search strategy won’t succeed unless it incorporates a sound investment philosophy. Going down the list, it becomes apparent that one element cannot be successfully applied without the one preceding it. But as a whole, these elements come together to create the essential mental framework that is found inside the most successful minds in investing.
To start with the initial focus is on the two ways to approach any investment opportunity. First, investors should look at stocks as a fractional interest in an entire business. The stock is the instrument that is bought; the business is the entity you own and will determine your long-term investment outcome. Investors often confuse this distinction, the result of which leads to expensive and unnecessary investment mistakes. Later an overview of the six elements, with and then crystallizes the thesis of this book by examining three investment case studies, and then concludes with reasons for why many investors stumble time and time again. Finally, will elaborate how to create an investment partnership. I thought long and hard about adding this  but decided to write it after remembering the wonderful help I received that enabled me to go into business for myself. For the new student of value investing, this book aims to provide a clear and concise illustration of the fundamental tenets of value investing, which are ingrained in the mind and psyche of every successful value investor. For the more advanced student and the active professional, The Business of Value Investing endeavors to add to the never-ending process of constant learning and application. In the investment management business, eating one’s own cooking should be the standard not the exception. The investment manager who has his own capital invested alongside his clients is a powerful sign of alignment of interests. There is no reason why this viewpoint should not spill over to an author who is recommending an investment approach.
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Charlie (the author) realized that while I was buying good businesses that he understood, he let the moving stock price instruct him as to when to buy and sell. One specific deal that crystallized these thoughts was Charlie’s 2002 investment in a company called Meridian Medical Technologies. It was a good profitable business, but unfortunately, he was not around to reap the benefits of those profits. Rather, he gave in to Mr. Market at the first sign of trouble. I wrote about this experience in one of my first letters to my limited partners. This experience taught me two very important lessons immediately. The first was to accept the fact that investment decisions should be made based on the value of the underlying business, not according to the short - term movements in the stock price. Investors have to learn to come to terms with their decisions. If you can, then assuming you understand and have properly valued the business, you aren’t swayed when the stock price of your investment declines 20 percent. Business valuation is both art and skill; I go over valuing a business in greater detail later in this book. Financial markets constantly quote prices others are willing to pay on any given day for a business, usually to the detriment of most investors. Ninety percent of the time, market prices are useless. They serve to distract investors from looking at the whole business and instead lead them to focus on the day - to - day price movements of a ticker symbol. As a result, investors often confuse market value with business value, leading to poor decision making and expensive mistakes. All too often, the terms “luck” and “skill” are tossed around the investment field inaccurately. The truth is that investment skill will always lead to certain moments of luck, but in the long term, luck alone simply cannot last long enough to produce a consistent, profitable result. The second important lesson I learned is to think independently
and rely on your own data. My mistake in Meridian was very fundamental: I let the crowd dictate my decision making. My mistake was not that I was wrong but that I decided that the stock price decline implied that I was wrong. I thought I had invested in the business, but I was really invested in the stock. My analysis was sound: a good business with a good product and a market leader with a strong operating performance. But my approach toward the business was far from sound; I let the noise from the market weaken my conviction of the business value.
Warren Buffett has often said that “investing is simple, but not easy to do.” It is believed that one of the things he was referring to was the difficulty many people have separating the value of the business from the price of the stock. You should not equate the value of businesses with the daily volatility of stock prices. For the most part, the market gets it right and generally values businesses fairly. As a value investor, you are not interested in buying fairly valued businesses; you are focused only on selecting undervalued businesses. The stock market should exist only for you to buy an undervalued business and to sell a fairly valued business.
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botenent 在职认证  发表于 2019-2-12 15:52:53 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
大家新年快乐!
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botenent 在职认证  发表于 2019-2-12 15:53:37 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
昨日阅读1.5小时,累计阅读178小时。
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hifinecon 发表于 2019-2-12 16:01:57 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
昨天阅读1小时,累计阅读336小时。
昨天继续学习经济思想,了解了博弈论(game theory)的思维,军备竞赛是博弈论的一个例子,这个理论诞生于20世纪40—50年代的数学和经济学领域。博弈论研究国家、公司和个人在某种情况下的行为,即一方的行为会影响到另一方获得的结果。博弈理论家认为我们互相影响(我们互动),因此我们会根据敌人的行为决定自己的行动(我们有“策略”)。博弈论研究无处不在的战略性的互相影响(strategic interaction)。博弈论的提出者之一,匈牙利籍数学家冯·诺依曼(John von Neumann)为美国兰德公司工作,后来也成了艾森豪威尔威尔总统的防御战略顾问。后来美国数学家约翰·纳什(John Nash)提出了更进一步的博弈论,纳什的观点后来成为了博弈论中最重要的部分,并在今天被广泛应用。他认为博弈结果的“均衡”状态为每个参与者的策略是对其他参与者策略的最佳反映。当每个人都这样做时,没有人有理由改变自己采取的行动,这便是博弈中的均衡,纳什证明大多数博弈都有均衡。在商业、政治和日常生活中,人们有时竞争有时合作。博弈论提供了一种帮助我们思考这种复杂性的方法。什么时候人们会倾向于一起合作,什么时候又会激烈竞争?一些博弈考虑到了更特殊复杂的策略,特别是当接二连三地做出决定时,你可以在做决定的时候先看清楚其他人都做了什么。你可以说,如果你的竞争对手采取了不受欢迎的行动,你会对他们做出惩罚。博弈论的一个基本策略:关键在于影响对手对你的想法。一家企业威胁要报复竞争对手,需要让自己显得好勇斗狠,而不是软弱无力。经济中的战略互动频繁发生,但是在博弈论诞生之前,这部分一直被经济学家们所忽视。博弈论使经济学家可以对更复杂、现实的,存在着人和人、企业和企业较量的情境做出分析。后来,纳什因其提出的具有开创意义的观点于1944年获得诺贝尔经济学奖。今天,该理论应用在几乎所有的经济学领域。
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arthur_gao 在职认证  发表于 2019-2-12 16:03:19 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
昨天阅读5小时,累计阅读125小时
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yunnandlg 在职认证  学生认证  发表于 2019-2-12 16:06:56 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
昨日阅读5小时,累积阅读442小时

市场哲学的数学原理

缠师心法荟萃
一、心态
一定不要追高买股票,一定要有这样的心态,它爱长多少是多少,权当这股票不存在。
股票只有两种,买点上的股票都是好股票,否则就是垃圾股票;大级别买点的就是最好的绩优股,耐心等待股票成为真正的绩优股,这才是真正的心态。
本ID反复强调过,心态最重要。很多人明明知道不是买点,就是手痒忍不住,这就是心态问题,不解决这个,任何理论都没用。
心态要稳,对股票、点位都不要有感情,只看市场的信号。应该对买卖点有感情。技术好,如果资金又不大,例如可以按30分钟操作,那什么时间都不存在晚的问题。
失误的原因永远与市场无关,找原因,只能找自己的原因,任何一次失误都要马上总结。
没有技术保证的心态是傻子心态,傻子心态最好,见什么都没反应。智慧指引下的洞察才是心态好的唯一保证。
为什么不能把自己变成狼,这和资金大小无关。只要你能买点买、卖点卖,就是最凶猛的狼。
操作,一定要冷静,有钱,什么都有,还怕没有好股票?
二、市场、节奏与参与者
市场里,任何的侥幸都只能是暂时的,而且会被市场所加倍索还,面对市场,不经过一番洗心革面,是不可能战胜市场的。
急着挣钱的心理是市场参与者的大忌,连自己的心都控制不住,对自己的贪婪、欲望都不能控制,是不能在市场中长久成功的。注定绝大多数投资者都是被市场愚弄的,而所有被愚弄的,都是陷在市场中,被自己所迷糊。这些人,所有的行为都被分类为多空两种形式,当自己拿着股票时,思维就被多头所控制,反之,就是空头的奴隶。而市场的情绪,就是由此而积聚、被引导。脱离不了这种状态的,永远成了不真正的市场参与者
市场里,好习惯是第一重要的。一个坏习惯可能可以让你一度赢利,但最终都是坟墓。别怕机会都没了,市场中永远有机会,关键是有没有发现和把握机会的能力,而这种能力的基础是一套好的操作习惯。
市场考验的是长期的赢利能力,而不是一次爆发的能力,关键是长期有效的交易策略。买入时要把各种情况想好,持有要坚决,卖更要坚决,这才能逐步提高。是你炒股票,不是股票炒你,先从自己下手。
市场只会给耐心者以回报;股票是需要养大的,天天要新股票的,肯定永远是小资金,小打小闹。专一点吧,每天跑来跑去的,一定挣不了大钱。
本ID只知道跟着市场的节奏舞蹈,只要跟着市场的节奏,在刀锋上一样可以凌波微步。节奏,永远是市场的节奏,一个没有节奏感的市场参与者,等待他的永远都是折磨,抛开你的贪婪、恐惧,去倾听市场的节奏。只要你能按照节奏来,没有人能阻击你。市场是有节奏的,把握当下节奏,没有人能战胜你。
在市场中,只能存天理,灭人欲。买卖点是合力的结果,买点出来,涨就是天经地义,一切事情要按节奏来,先干什么后干什么,是规矩的。
在市场里,复利的力量是最大的,只要有好的心态与技术,复利是必然的,这就可以战胜一切。
市场不是慈善机构。该涨的时候要凶,该跌的时候一样要凶,关键是你的技术。有卖点不卖就是最大的错误,比有买点不买还要严重。
所有情况都逃不过高位背驰卖,低位背驰买,不预测,有股票的,在短线买点进入,短线卖点出来,这样就可以降低成本.市场中,成本是最关键的,只要成本不断降低,你将战无不胜.
在最顺利时,也必须谨慎,市场永远是风险市场,股票永远是废纸,任何追高杀跌的行为都是自寻死路。
每次大跌,都有人被严重摧残甚至淘汰,这只是市场中最正常的事情,市场不是慈善场所,从来都是铁血游戏。
三、节奏、级别与买卖点
节奏是一个永远的主题,高手还是低手,最终考验的就是节奏,轮动只是节奏的一种方式,而最重要的节奏,还是买卖点,一切的节奏都必须以此为基础,当然轮动也不例外。
操作的节奏是最重要的,操作,归根结底就是买点买、卖点卖。能否做到,那是技术精确度问题,这个通过实践,一定会不断提高,所谓熟能生巧。而节奏来源自对级别的清楚认识,没有级别,任何的买卖点都是白搭,更别谈什么节奏了。
用小级别操作的,节奏更重要。你抛了不买回,那还不如不抛,等大级别的卖点再说。买了就要想着卖点,卖了就要想着买点。如果时间不够,操作不方便,就要选择大级别的操作。不要玩小级别的,否则买卖点很容易错过,开个会,干件事就没了。小级别只适合职业、或至少是半职业看盘的。
为什么要看买卖点,为什么要强调节奏,最终都是为了资金的安全与利用率,这对大资金同样的,而对小资金,掌握了节奏,你的效率更高。要有效率,必须有节奏,要有节奏,就首先要把握好买卖点。
大跌,就把眼睛放大,去找会形成第三类买点的股票,这才是股票操作真正的节奏与思维。最好就是找有大级别第三类买点的强势股票(次级别不跌回中枢里面就是,但能不跌回最高点那自然是最强的)。选股票一定要按技术来找,找有第三类买点的,或至少是刚从第三类买点起来的。
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eryuel 发表于 2019-2-12 16:28:40 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
今日阅读0.5小时,累计阅读1小时。
今日听会计实务中级课程投资性房地产三小节。
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