20190214【充实计划】第982期

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昨天学习经济成长理论，经济体如何以及为何增长，是经济学的核心问题，第二次世界大战结束之后，经济学家开始以新的思路思考经济增长的问题，美国经济学家罗伯特·索洛（Robert Solow）利用数学和统计学对原有的经济学问题进行了现代化的转变。随着时间的推移，提升人们生活质量的经济增长的动力是什么？为什么一些国家比另一些国家增长得更快？索洛解释正常状态下，当经济体的全部资源被用来生产产品时，经济如何增长。设想一个简化的世界，在那里商品通过使用资金（设备和工厂）和劳动力来生产：少量挖掘机和上百带着铁铲的工人挖掘火车隧道，或者也可以用大量挖掘机和少数驾驶员来完成同样的工作。富裕的国家相比自身的人口拥有大量的资金，这意味着这些国家里每个人的产出更高。人均产出可以很好地衡量一个社会的富裕程度。一个由10个人组成并生产100英镑价值商品的社会，其富裕程度是生产同样价值产品但人口为20人的社会的一倍。10个人构成的社会能够为每个人平均提供双倍的商品：它的人民的生活水平比20人的社会的更高。索洛的理论可以用于解释人均收入的增长。根据索洛的理论，当你向同样数量的工人投入更多资本时，你能够获取的额外产出会越来越少。这一效果被称为“资本收益递减”（diminishing returns to capital）。资本收益递减意味着，当一个经济体增加资本储备并增加生产时，其增长率会逐渐减少，因此人均收入不再增长， 从长期来看，还是有实现人均收入增长的因素，那就是技术的进步。从经济的角度来看，技术是让投入变成产出的处方，技术进步允许以一国所拥有的资本和人力实现更多的产出，同样也可以生产出新的商品。索洛认为，社会更高的生产率来源于技术进步，这才是增长的真正引擎。但是索洛的理论并没有解释新技术究竟来自何方。这令技术变成“外生的”：来自经济体的外部，因此无法控制。20世纪90年代，美国的经济学家保罗·罗默（Paul Romer）开创了新的增长理论，这个理论认为，技术是“内生的”，可以在经济体内部被创造出来。罗默在有关技术和增长的理论认为，ZF可以通过资助研究和开发来发挥作用，从而带来相比单独的私有市场来说更多的创新。在索洛理论里认为发展会减速的地方，罗默却认为发展还会继续，因为新的知识会扩散到整个经济体。这意味着那些善于创新知识的大体量经济体能够在不减速的状态下继续增长。而那些小体量的经济体并不能自动地追赶上来。

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The business of value investing – Six essential elements to buying companies like Warren Buffett- Charlie Tian 2009
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-695143-1-1.html(Page 37-45)
The only three types of investments you need to know & Stocks prices Aren’t Always Rational

阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
The beauty of investing is that there is enough room for many participants to succeed. Many investors fail to outperform the average indexes. John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group of mutual funds, once observed that nearly 85 percent of active money managers fail to outperform the broad market indexes. Part of this result can be explained by elementary statistics. With a sample size (market participants) so large, it is impossible for everyone to beat the average. For one, investing is a zero - sum game: Someone is buying what you’re selling and selling what you’re buying. When someone is realizing a gain, someone is taking a loss somewhere down the line.
When it comes to stocks, this zero - sum characteristic might not happen immediately. Consider the Internet boom. For years, it seemed that stock prices would only go up. Someone could buy shares in
a dot-com business, sell them after they doubled (or even tripled) in price, and the new buyer would experience the same pleasure. When the euphoria ended, the losses were just as severe on the way down as the joy was on the way up. Buy shares at a $ 100 and sell them at $ 50. The new buyer would see the purchase price halved, and on the cycle went. While some people made out with fortunes, the proportion is very small when compared with the overall participant pool. Make no mistake: There is a winner and a loser on every side of the trade. However, there are scores of successful long - term investors who have found themselves more on the winning side of the transaction. Besides Buffett, these include guys like Bill Miller at Legg Mason who beat the Standard & Poor ’ s (S & P) index for 15 consecutive years; Bruce Berkowitz at the Fairholme Funds; and Mason Hawkins at the Longleaf Funds. Their long - term success rate is a result of more than just mere luck. In 1982, Warren Buffett wrote a wonderful essay titled “The Super Investors of Graham and Doddsville,” where he defended the success of a value investing approach over long periods of time. Rebuttals were posited that Buffett’s performance was a six sigma type of event (an event so rare that it could probabilistically occur only once every 2.5 million days).
Yet all the recent market slumps, including the 1987 stock market crash, the Asian currency crisis, and the Internet bubble, have been six sigma types of events. All have occurred in the past two decades. To those who considered Buffett’s results a six sigma event and that “looking for value [investments] with a significant margin of safety” was an outdated method, Buffett delivered this powerful argument: In this group of successful investors . . . there has been a common intellectual patriarch, Ben Graham. But the children who left the house of this intellectual patriarch have called their “flip” in very different ways. They have gone to different places and bought and sold different stocks and companies, yet they have had a combined record that simply can’t be explained by random chance. Benjamin Graham is considered the father of the value investing approach. His two great works, The Intelligent Investor and Security Analysis created the foundation for investing in businesses that were selling for less than their true value. The general idea behind Graham’s approach was to look at the fundamental, concrete variables in the business, namely profits and cash generation. Find those businesses that were selling in the market for less than total value of the discounted future cash flows and invest in them. Graham defined his approach to investing as “an operation . . . which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”

阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
As shares buy and sell don’t create actual value it is only a zero sum game that only through you have better price discovery skills that you can have better returns then the others or less loss when the market crash. Value investors look at businesses through a very simple construct. Businesses come in only three flavors: undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued. Every single business will fall into one of these three buckets. Let me first start with an important caveat. In determining which bucket of valuation a business falls into, we must first be able to value the business. And to be able to value it, we must first understand the business. And to understand a business, we should really know it. Simply reading the annual report is the beginning. In order to understand the business, you should also be familiar with the industry the business operates in, the competitive forces within the industry, and how any external business threats could affect the business going forward. If you can ’ t understand the business, you can ’ t make intelligent assumptions about its future cash flows or anything else that might be meaningful to assessing the value of the business. Realize that you do not need to understand every industry in the business world; it ’ s far better and more rewarding in the long run if you can understand a few industries exceptionally well. Develop a core competency in a few areas, and you will fi nd plenty of opportunities to make money. Buffett’s core competency is the insurance industry; he understands all the ins and outs of the insurance business and has used his expertise to great success. Also remember that Buffett has been investing for over 50 years, so developing an investment acumen does take time and it ’ s an ongoing process. Focus on what you can understand, and read as much as you can. Over time, the competency will develop and serve as building blocks for different investment opportunities. What exactly do I mean when I call a business undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued? As the goal of investment success hinges on finding discrepancies between market value and business value, it is more precise to refer to an investment as under-priced, over-priced, or fairly priced. An undervalued business is one in which the underlying stock price is under-priced. Why get so technical with the wording? Just because a stock price is cheap does not mean that the underlying business is undervalued. Conversely, an undervalued business does not have to be a cheap stock. When seeking to define value - oriented investments, many academics and professional investors focus on two valuation metrics: the price-to earnings ratio (P/E) and the price-to-book ratio (P/B). The P/E ratio is simply a number that shows the relationship between a stock price and the earnings per share of the business.

昨日累计阅读1小时，2019年累计阅读47小时。继续分享《薛兆丰经济学讲义》
人口集聚提高大城市的经济效率
现在有一个说法，说在北上广深这样的大城市，要留下高端的人口，而把中低端的人迁走。这种说法有问题。如果一个城市只剩下高端人口，那这些高端人口中就自然会变出中低端人口来，否则谁来打扫卫生、修车、送快递、看孩子呢？
在美国，一个钢琴老师的收入不一定比一个修车师傅高，开垃圾车的清洁工，收入很可能比大学老师还要高。谁赚得多，谁赚得少，讲的不是职业的贵贱，而是互相依赖的程度。
在大城市里，重要的不是你是谁，而是你跟谁在一起。不要以为非得有天大的本事，才能够在大城市里立足。人与人之间讲究的，不是你个人的本事有多大，而是你的本事跟别人的本事能不能相匹配，你们之间能不能够互相服务。
大城市的人口集聚，是一个全世界都存在的大趋势。2009年世界银行发布了一个报告，报告中提到了日本和美国这两个国家不同地区的GDP所占的比例。日本有三个地方GDP特别高：东京、名古屋和大阪，这三个地方的GDP加起来，超过日本GDP总量的80%。换句话说，即使整个国家中别的地方都没有产出，日本的GDP总产出也没有太大变化。
这就是美国和日本多年城市化、人口自然集聚产生的结果。当年世界银行的这份报告没有发布跟中国相关的数据，但是我们可以想想，要是讲中国GDP产出占比最高的城市，有北京、上海、广州、深圳，可能还有成都、重庆，接下来可能就要算上香港和台北了。
从这个角度看，中国的人口集聚、中国的城市化还没有完成，这些大城市对房屋的需求还在增长。
如果房价上升是因为人口集聚造成的，那么这种集聚就是正面的，我们不应该抑制它。如果非要把人赶走，或者剥夺那些已经来了的人脱贫致富的机会，其实对这些城市的繁荣发展是不利的，对公民的自立自强也不利。
简而言之，人口集聚和城市繁荣，都是使房价上升的正面因素。
关于房价的一点观点：
1、靠政府手段是没有办法做到实际控制房价的，就是价格管控了，人们会用其他资源来获取房子；
2、时间是一个很柔和的变量，随着时间的迁移，社会的房子的需求会发生变化，房价自然也会变化；
3、聚集说明资源稀缺，在大城市会有更多的机会，享受更多的资源，所以房屋价格更高，这个是必然；

充实每一天 发表于 2019-2-14 06:02
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充实每一天 发表于 2019-2-14 06:02
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昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读32.5小时，昨天读了《从“ZF干预”到“ZF参与”的经济学探讨》一文，https: //bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6707780-1-1.html,文中提到"但事实已经摆在面前，西方经济并没有因“自由市场理论”而摆脱困境，反而越陷越深。”对此深表认同，市场并不是万能的，这可以从西方一直出现的经济危机得到解释，经济学界盲目推崇市场的力量，误导了宏观经济管理，也影响了经济理论的完善和发展。