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Do changes in U.S. dollar interest rates have a material impact on financial conditions elsewhere in the world? The answer is a resounding yes. When the Federal Reserve eases, the result is a dramatic increase in financial system leverage in other countries. Not only that, but the impact is larger than that of domestic policy changes.
The outsized cross-border impact of U.S. monetary policy creates obvious challenges for policymakers abroad aiming to maintain financial stability. Governments in the countries most affected have few options to limit the risks created by cyclical changes in dollar interest rates. The available mix of prudential measures includes more stringent capital requirements, limits on foreign currency liabilities, and restrictions on cross-border capital flows. The alternative of trying to counter U.S. monetary stimulus through higher policy interest rates abroad may backfire.
Why does U.S. policy have such an outsized external impact? Part of the answer lies in the role of the dollar in the global financial system. First, roughly 40 percent of all trade is invoiced in dollars. Since the United States accounts for roughly 10 percent of world trade, this means that roughly 30 percent of world trade involves non-American entities pricing their products in dollars. The dollar’s role as the primary invoicing currency leads firms—both financial and nonfinancial—to maintain a significant quantity of U.S. dollar assets and liabilities on their balance sheets.
Put differently, dollar dominance gives rise to (and is reinforced by) a large “Global Dollar system” outside the United States (see our earlier post). The BIS reports that U.S. dollar liabilities of non-U.S. banks are on the order of $15 trillion. Foreign exchange swaps lead to additional U.S. dollar exposures that suggest doubling this already large number. And, the U.S. Treasury reports that foreigners hold more than $6 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities. To put these numbers into perspective, total assets of U.S. depository institutions are currently $17 trillion. In other words, the U.S. dollar financial system outside of the United States is larger than the American banking system.
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