20190223【充实计划】第989期

任正非连续签发三个电邮：华为这么大，博士怎么就呆不下？

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EouZFOgdkbKOEgLDyWuY0g

43万起的特斯拉国内交付！600公里续航会让蔚来们瑟瑟发抖吗

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3RuvwgMmRXxf8TeORHeKyw

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《思想的力量：哲学导论》


405. 奥古斯丁和阿奎那
在这些基督教哲学家眼中，自然法就是上帝的永恒道德律法，人通过自己良知和理性的命令来理解、接受它。

他们提出了两个关键问题：世俗法律和上帝的自然法之间的关系，以及相应地，国家和教会之间的关系。都认为国家的法律必须是正义的，必须符合上帝的自然法。
否则就不是真正的法律，是不正当的。教会为人的灵魂需求服务。国家是隶属于教会的。
eterna law, divine law, natural law, human law. 阿奎那的最根本四种法。

406. 霍布斯：认为自然法既不属于上帝也不是神道德法，其自然法概念是对旧的宗教概念的抛弃。
其自然法是复数的。无非是合乎理性的、小心谨慎的行动准则，为的是最好地保存自己的生命。（合乎理性的自身利益）
第一条自然法：当你有希望获得安宁的时候，就去追求安宁，若没有希望获得安宁，那就尽你所能地保护自己。
第二条：为自身的安宁和自我保护，能够允许别人对你有何种程度的自由，你就得满足于你“对他人”也仅拥有这种程度的自由（前提是别人都满足于这样的自由）
第三条：人必须信守盟约（承诺、契约、合同）

Social Contract让人脱离了自然状态的恶，进入到文明社会与和平状态。（在利维坦之下才能存在）

407. 权力政治：尼可洛-马基雅维利（1469-1527）的《君主论》（The Prince）1532，是有史以来最著名的政治论著之一。论述了一个君主如何能够最佳地获取权力和维护权力，它通常被认为是现代政治科学的奠基之作。----冷酷无情的权力政治倡导者。

他还有一部更为广博的早期政治学著作《论李维》（Discourse on Livy）（1531），书中就保护自由、秩序、稳定和所有人的利益而言，共和制好于君主制。
他认为是基督教导致了人的改变，基督教强调谦卑、温顺，蔑视世俗的目标，这使人变得软弱，变得需要君主的绝对权力来统治自己。
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Blockchain:
33.

Here is a clear breakdown of the global state. The truth was that the camera was already on a truck, but neither I nor the shipper had that information stored properly. If the camera equipment had been stolen from my porch, it would have been very hard to discover what had happened.
If the seller, the logistics company, and I were all writing and reading data from a blockchain, this would have been impossible. When the logistics company registered the shipment, the state of the object would have changed, and both the seller and I would have known as soon as the next block was finalized.

Block time and block size

As discussed before, each blockchain has a block time and a block size . Each network can have very different values and ways of handling block time. In Bitcoin, for instance, the block time is 10 minutes, while with Ethereum the block time is 20 seconds. In Stellar, the block time is about 4 seconds. These block times are determined by the code that runs the network.

For networks such as Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ethereum, the block time is actually an average. Because these are PoW networks, the block is finished once a miner solves the mining puzzle, which allows them to certify the block. In these networks, the difficulty of the puzzle is automatically adjusted so that on average the desired block time is reached.


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The business of value investing – Six essential elements to buying companies like Warren Buffett- Charlie Tian 2009
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-695143-1-1.html (Page 94-95)
Imitation Is the Sincerest Form of Flattery,
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
Unlike most other professions, where copying someone’s work or using another’s data could be illegal, in investing there are no penalties for copying others’ ideas. In fact, seeing what other investors are buying is the greatest and most effective starting point for an effective search strategy. With thousands of publicly traded securities in the United States alone, it is an intelligent move to take that large pool of stocks and shrink it down to those owned by the most experienced and talented investors in the world. As far as I am concerned, there is no new secret formula waiting to be discovered in value investing, only the discovery of bargain investment opportunities. Fortunately, our search is aided by the existence of many highly regarded value investors who have produced the long-term numbers to back up their reputations. These investors have been tried and tested over years and have demonstrated an ability to outperform the markets over meaningful periods of time. In 2007, two professors published a study that analyzed the investment moves made by Warren Buffett between 1976 and 2000.What they found was remarkable, not for the returns that Buffett has produced for what those returns meant to the individual investor.
If investors had simply bought the same stocks that Buffett was buying for Berkshire over the same period, they would have earned average returns of 24 percent during the 1976 to 2006 period. And this means buying the stocks after Buffett had disclosed them in Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulatory filings. You simply had to wait until his investments became public information and then make the same investments on your own. What phenomenal here is the wide margin of outperformance. An average return of 24 percent versus 11 percent implies that you could have spent some time performing your own due diligence, and odds are you still would have done better than the index. Even more impressive, you would have done better than a vast majority of professional investors. A monkey could have beaten the socks off the market by copying Buffett! Interestingly, the study concluded that Buffett’s performance was confined to a very small number of carefully chosen investments. In fact, the study found that Berkshire’s five top equity holdings averaged 73 percent of the portfolio’s value. Buffett is obviously a unique individual and a brilliant investor without equal. But he is certainly not alone is delivering incredible performance numbers year in and year out. Aside from the names just mentioned, do some digging, and you will find some excellent candidates worthy of imitation.  Many investment firms have various funds or different legal names for the funds and the investment management company. Also, some companies share similar names, so do some research on the specific company and where it’s based to be certain you are looking at the right one. You can use this search process over and over for numerous investors. Sometimes you might see similar investments across various investment managers. These common holdings should really grab your attention. For example, many value managers hold sizable positions in Berkshire Hathaway. Even more so, Buffett still keeps on increasing intrinsic value by an average of 10 percent a year, so even at its current size, Berkshire still represents a solid investment coupled with very little risk. Aside from Berkshire and Buffett, value investors occasionally jump on the same wagon, whether it is for the same stock or a general industry that has been battered and offers value. The filings of several value investors will provide you with at least 100 ideas to research. It is difficult to find a better search filter than first to see what other smart successful investors are buying.

阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Researching what the smart money is buying is just the beginning. The next step in developing a good search strategy is to filter out the best resources and rely heavily on them. In no particular order of importance, the next resources offer valuable investment ideas for any value investor.
Greenblatt began as a value investor in the mold of Ben Graham and Christopher Dodd. Ben Graham was Buffett’s mentor; Graham and Dodd co-authored Security Analysis, a book regarded without equal in value investing. Not much is known about Greenblatt’s hedge fund Gotham Capital, as it operated very privately. What we do know is that the investment partnership began in 1985 and achieved annualized returns exceeding 40 percent until it shut down in 1995. Greenblatt’s investment philosophy is deeply value based, and he applied the approach rigorously in his investment fund. Like Buffett, Greenblatt focused on good-quality businesses that were selling for cheap in the market.  He looked at the earnings yield of the business. The earnings yield is simply the stock price divided by the annual earnings per share of the business. And, like Buffett, Greenblatt defined “good businesses” as those that earn the highest returns on invested capital (ROIC). To keep it simple, think of ROIC as how much a business earns pretax for each dollar invested in the business. The concept is simple. If a business generates more than a dollar in pretax income from each dollar invested in the business, then it is creating value. The company is taking a dollar and earning more than a dollar. For example, a company is said to have a 20 percent ROIC if for every dollar it invests in the business, it earns 20 cents above that dollar. Over time, businesses that continue to generate strong returns on invested capital increase the value of the company and, ultimately, the stock price. So Greenblatt took these two valuable pieces of data and created the Magic Formula list of stocks. The site is merely a list of stocks based on a minimum company market value that you choose. The list gives you the business name, its stock symbol, the earnings yield, and the return on capital. The intuitive concept behind the Magic Formula is brilliant; value investors should research and analyse its list of stocks. The site is updated daily so it remains a very useful tool for stock searches.

succumb
*[sә'kʌm]
vi. 屈从, 屈服, 死
intransitive verb
1 : to yield to superior strength or force or overpowering appeal or desire

2 : to be brought to an end (as death) by the effect of destructive or disruptive forces

Duplicated and is deleted.

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昨天继续学习了经济学中的时间不一致理论。20世纪五六十年代的凯恩斯主义经济政策，以ZF可以通过调整ZF开支来影响经济的观点作为基础。（凯恩斯主义者不那么赞同的另一种政策选择是ZF让更多的货币进入流通领域。）根据菲利普斯曲线，低失业率伴随着高通胀，ZF可以利用这些政策，以较高的通胀为代价，降低失业率。理性预期理论家认为，这是不可能实现的。他们认为，如果ZF刺激经济，理性的人通常会预见到更高的工资会被同样上涨的物价所抵消。人们的真实工资（能够实际购买的商品）不会改变，当意识到这一点，人们就不会更多地工作。ZF政策的唯一效果就是推高了通胀。以这种眼光看待经济，ZF能够做的最好的事情是不要印太多钞票，不要有太多ZF开支，从而将通胀保持在较低的水平。基德兰德（Finn Kydland）和普雷斯科特（Edward Prescott）说，与其ZF使用自由裁量权任意增加ZF支出已刺激景气，ZF不如按照事先确定的原则行事，比如“不论在什么时候都保证低通胀”。 在基德兰德和普雷斯科特提出他们的理论之后，经济学家开始寻找解决方案，让ZF能够履行自己设定的规则，并解决时间不一致的问题。许多方案都是要求改变中央银行的运作方式。时间不一致问题的一种解决办法是ZF放弃对中央银行的控制。让中央银行独立，这样货币政策就不再有被政治人物操弄的风险。到了20世纪90年代，许多ZF让自己的中央银行独立起来。他们为通胀设定了目标，保持在2%—3%之间。中央银行的工作就是利用货币政策的工具来达到这一目标。许多经济学家认为中央银行的独立会带来低通胀和稳定的增长。这将是从20世纪70年代开始的滞涨时代（高通胀和高失业），的一次大反转。这里说的是“大缓和”，一个不再剧烈波动的稳定的经济时代。那么，央行的独立有效果吗？央行独立的国家其通胀确实下降了，这是事实，但是硬将这两件事关联在一起却是牵强的。20世纪八九十年代的低通胀可能是运气使然，而不是聪明地解决时间不一致问题的经济理论的结果。在20世纪70年代，经济学家受到了那些导致高通胀的事件的突然打击，比如中东地区的政治危机导致了油价暴涨。20世纪八九十年代的经济稳定可能是由于没有出现这样的打击。更重要的，“大缓和”并没有持续下去，2008年全球经济崩溃，它突然中止了，经济波动又重新回来了。

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