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Purpose – Drawing on the literature that has shown the prevalence of short-lived trade relationships, the
purpose of this paper is to provide further understanding about this issue by exploring the impact of
engaging in Global Value Chains (GVCs) on the chance of export survival at product-country level, paying
special attention to the differences between advanced and developing countries. The authors also investigate
whether the type of GVC participation (backward or forward) matters for export survival.
Design/methodology/approach – To capture to what extent a country’s exports are integrated in GVCs,
the authors use the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output database to estimate value added incorporated in
exports. Through the estimation of a discrete-time duration model, the authors explore the impact of engaging
in GVCs on export survival using highly disaggregated trade data from the CEPII’s BACI database.
Findings – The findings endorse the hypothesis that deeper participation in GVCs is a key factor in
explaining stability in trade relationships, mainly for developing countries where the trade flows are
especially fragile. The authors also find different effects depending on the type of GVC involvement and on
whether the value chain partners are advanced or developing.
Originality/value – The paper contributes to the literature by extending the understanding on the factors
that promote the stability of exports, including among them, involvement on GVCs (and its forms) which is
one of the most relevant factors to explain recent behavior of trade.
Keywords Developing countries, Global value chains, Backward and forward GVC participation,
Discrete-time duration models, Export survival
JES-04-2017-0106 Strengthening the stability of exports through GVC participation.pdf
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