高盛:理解美国经济数据 第六版

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Understanding US Economic Statistics Sixth Edition February, 2008
高盛:理解美国经济数据 第六版

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关键词：经济数据 美国经济 Statistics Understand statistic 数据 高盛 美国经济

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Table of Contents
I. Introduction to the Sixth Edition 1
II. Economic Data—Their Special Quirks 2-9
Revisions: Why They Occur; How to Deal With Them 2
A Primer on Seasonal Adjustment 3
Exhibit A: Seasonal Factors for Housing Have Moderated 5
Exhibit B: Retail Sales Correlated With Heating Days 6
Growth Rates—Sequential versus Year-to-Year Change 8
Exhibit C: How Sequential Growth Rates Affect Annual Averages 9
III. Which Economic Data Have the Biggest Impact
on Financial Asset Prices? 10-14
Exhibit A: Equity Market Movers 12
Exhibit B: Fixed-Income Market Movers 13
Exhibit C: Exchange Rate Movers 14
IV. GS Proprietary Economic Indexes 15-24
The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index (GSFCISM) 15
Exhibit A: Lots of Ways to Move the GSFCISM 100 Basis Points 17
The Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) 18
Exhibit B: The GSAI and GDP Growth—Reasonably Correlated 20
Exhibit C: The GSAI vs. ISM Mfg—Correlated but Noisier 20
The Goldman Sachs Surprise Index (GSSI) 21
Exhibit D: GSSI Components—Payrolls, GDP, ISM Top the List 22
Exhibit E: The GSSI Correlates Well With 2-Year Yields 23
V. GS US Economic Publications and Forecasts 25-26
Publications 25
Forecasts 26
VI. National Output and Income 27-32
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 27
Personal Income 29
Corporate Profits 30
Exhibit A: From NIPA Profits to S&P 500 Earnings Per Share 32
Goldman Sachs US Economic Research
Understanding US Economic Statistics February 2008
Table of Contents (continued)
VII. Sectoral Production, Orders, and Inventories 33-48
ISM Report on Business—Manufacturing 33
ISM Report on Business—Nonmanufacturing 34
ISM Semiannual Reports 35
Chicago Business BarometerTM 36
Federal Reserve Surveys of Business Conditions 36
Exhibit A: A Cook’s Tour of Regional Fed Surveys 37
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey 38
Empire State Manufacturing Survey 38
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Survey 39
Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank Manufacturing Survey 40
Current Economic Conditions (“Beige Book”) 40
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 41
Durable Goods Orders (Advance Report) 42
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 43
Industrial Production 44
Capacity Utilization 45
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales 46
Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators 47
VIII. Consumer Spending and Confidence 49-58
Retail Sales 49
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) 51
Unit Auto and Truck Sales 52
ICSC/UBS Warburg Retail Sales Index 52
Johnson Redbook Report 53
Goldman Sachs Retail Index (GSRI) 54
Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) 54
Consumer Sentiment (Reuters/University of Michigan) 55
ABC News Consumer Comfort Index 57
Other Measures of Consumer/Investor Confidence 57
IX. Housing and Construction 58-67
Housing Starts and Building Permits 58
New Single-Family Home Sales 59
Existing Home Sales 60
Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) 61
Construction Spending 62
Housing Market Index 63
Mortgage Applications Indexes 64
Goldman Sachs US Economic Research
Understanding US Economic Statistics February 2008
Table of Contents (continued)
IX. Housing and Construction (continued)
Mortgage Delinquencies and Foreclosures 65
OFHEO Home Price Index 65
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes 66
Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Rate 67
X. Foreign Trade and International Capital Flows 68-71
International Trade Balance 68
Current Account Balance 69
Treasury International Capital System (TICS) 70
XI. Employment 72-80
The Employment Situation 72
ADP National Employment Report 75
Unemployment Insurance Claims 76
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 77
Challenger, Gray and Christmas Layoff Announcements 78
Help-Wanted Advertising Index 78
Monster Employment Index 79
Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) 80
Business Employment Dynamics (BED) 80
XII. Prices, Wages, and Productivity 81-94
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 81
Exhibit A: CPI Relative Importance Weights 82
PCE Price Indexes 84
Exhibit B: CPI vs. PCE Price Indexes 85
GDP-Based Price Indexes 86
Employment Cost Index (ECI) 87
Productivity and Costs 88
Producer Price Index (PPI) 89
Exhibit C: PPI Finished Goods Relative Importance Weights 90
Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (S&P GSCITM) 91
Exhibit D: S&P GSCITM Components and Dollar Weights 92
Reuters/Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Indexes 92
Import and Export Prices 93
Goldman Sachs US Economic Research
Understanding US Economic Statistics February 2008
Table of Contents (continued)
XIII. Monetary and Financial Data 95-101
Monetary Aggregates 95
Monetary Base 96
Senior Loan Officers’ Survey 97
Flow of Funds 98
Consumer Credit 99
Household Debt and Financial Obligations Ratios 100
XIV. Federal Reserve Policy 102-110
Federal Open Market Committee 102
FOMC Policy Statements 102
FOMC Minutes and Transcripts 103
Monetary Policy Testimony and FOMC Forecasts 104
Open Market Operations 105
Discount Rate 107
Term Auction Facility (TAF) 108
Reserve Requirements 110
XV. Federal Government Finances 111-115
Federal Budget Balance 111
US Treasury Borrowing Schedule 111
Exhibit A: Treasury Securities Auction Cycle 112
Federal Debt Limit 113
Auction Techniques 114
Index 116-121

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http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ide ... -statistics-pdf.pdf