20190227【充实计划】第993期

2019，风口、赛道 与 硬核投资 | 42章经

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zRddelRm59Lfrj1dJiCPIA

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充实每一天 发表于 2019-2-27 05:16
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《思想的力量：哲学导论》

417. 自由主义（liberalism）在约翰-斯图亚特-穆勒《论自由》（On Liberty）中得到了成熟的表达（1806-1873）：无论对于个人还是对于集体而言，使得人类能够正当地干涉他人自由行动的唯一合理动机只有一个，那就是----保护他人不受伤害。人自身的善，无论是身体上的还是道德上的，都不足以构成干涉他人的正当理由。

418. 亚当-斯密（Adam Smith， 1723-1790）古典自由主义经济学理论家最重要的一位，大卫-休谟的同时代人。其理论的原则就是：在一个自由放任的经济体制中，即ZF不插手干预，每一个追逐着自身利益的个人都”被一只看不见的巨手“操纵着，因此他们最终都会促进共同的善，尽管这不是他们的本意。

他解说了资本主义（capitalism，即财产和生产资料私有制）和自由市场经济（free-market economy，即个人可以遵循自身的经济利益来行动，ZF不会约束他们的个人自由）给每个人带来的利益，他的立场和许多当代美国保守派人士的立场颇为相近。
《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》（An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Nations, 1776）是美国政治保守派心目中的经典。

419. 功利主义和自然权利
功利主义的理论：行为的正确性取决于它所带来的幸福或快乐。（杰米-边沁， 1748-1832）一位著名的功力主义者：他认为，谈论自然权利等于说废话。
只要能够增加幸福，功利主义者可以破坏任何所谓的自然权利。
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Blockchain:

Summary
    Now you should understand the basic components of a blockchain. Blocks are groups of transactions grouped together and act as the fundamental unit of a blockchain. Miners are computers that create new blocks on PoW blockchains. Validators, also called witnesses and other names, are computers that create blocks on PoS blockchains. Digital signatures are composed of public and private keys and use mathematics to prove the author of the data.
    The key ideas of hashing is to use a mathematical function that maps arbitrary data to a single, simple to deal with value. Any change to the data will make the end value very different It's essentially impossible to construct the original data from the hash, but it's easy to create the hash from the original data You can use these properties to prove that data has not been changed In the next chapter, we will learn what these systems are and how blockchain counts as both. We will learn how to differentiate between the two systems and why these concepts are so important to blockchain.

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bear in mind   记住  
== remember and take into account bear oneself
= carry or conduct oneself in a specified manner

She bore herself with  dignity.    她表现得很有尊严

take responsibility for

No one likes to bear the responsibility for such decisions.   没有人喜欢为这样的决定承担责任。

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Enter the 2019 USMPF report, which focuses on the possibility that inflation may indeed respond differently when the unemployment rate is very low and projected to remain low for several years (see, for example the FOMC’s latest Summary of Economic Projections). These recent authors do note the reduced impact of unemployment on inflation in recent decades, as well as the reduced impact of inflation shocks on the trend of inflation. However, as they observe, these estimates do not exclude the possibility that prolonged periods of low unemployment could have a disproportionate impact on inflation.

The logic is straightforward: if labor is persistently very scarce, employers will bid up wages and (unless they are prepared to accept declining profits) pass on those cost increases in the form of higher prices. Put differently, the authors of the 2019 USMPF report hypothesize that, when demand for labor exceeds supply markedly and for a long time, the result will be disproportionately larger wage and price inflation. So, if you focus on the 30 years starting in the mid-1980s, the Phillips curve appears relatively flat. In reality, however, it is just dormant. It is important that policymakers remain vigilant, as conditions could change rapidly with several years of very tight labor markets.

This concern leads the latest USMPF authors to examine state and local data for instances of persistent excess labor demand. For example, since 1980, more than 15% of annual state-level observations exhibit an unemployment rate less than 4%. Interestingly, local data for metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) provide the most compelling statistical results. One might think that excess labor demand in even relatively large cities would attract inward migration, rather than lead employers to boost wages. However, the data confirm the authors’ hypothesis that the impact of unemployment on inflation is disproportionately larger when the unemployment rate is unusually low.

1、文章链接：https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3484545

2、文章摘录：据此，可以类比分析一下A股的个阶层：

外资：类似帝国主义，属于纸老虎。

虽然强大和先进，但中国并不是他们的核心利益，占比很小，只是来捞便宜，捞到就走，没有决战到底的决心。在他们认可的估值区间下沿，买入；在估值区间上沿，卖出。

理念稳定的价值投资机构：市场上少数的几家大型私募基金，类似买办大资产阶级。

他们有长期稳定的资金来源，跟外资方法论一致，现在也都是全球配置，存量资产高，海外联系多，如果A股没有机会，一般很自然的就去买美股和港股。

以上两类，从长期来看，都是能赚钱有超额收益的。但缺乏广泛的群众基础，缺乏决战到底的决心，涨多了反而会卖而不是买。如果A股出现一轮波澜壮阔的牛市，牛到泡沫那种，最大的受益者不会是他们。好比中国历经险阻GM取得胜利，站在天安门城楼上的群体，不是外国人也不是买办。

其它机构和散户（大部分的保险、公募、私募）：类似中产阶级和小资产阶级，天生具有两面性。

他们没有稳定的长期资金，也没有稳定的框架和理念，三根阳线就追，三根阴线就砍。天生具有两面性，无论其它任何市场主体打出趋势，他们都可跟随，特别容易摇摆。

产业资本：类似农民阶级，才是A股的主体。

他们有最多的存量筹码，大于50%，在占比上有绝对压倒性优势。他们对上市公司有最深刻最真实的认知，大部分身价都跟A股挂钩，跟A股有最本质最天然的利益联系。只有民企老板，才可以比肩在伟大的中国革命中取得最后胜利的无产阶级。

在历史上，每一次A股阶段性的大底部，后续产生了50%以上级别行情的，无一例外出现了产业资的积极参与和配合。

3、感悟：年后，股票大涨，牛市的到来又成为了大家热议的话题，争相开户导致券商APP崩溃的景象出现了，赚钱效应也出现了。股市不能预测，牛市前期都是大家讨论这次是反弹还是牛市的声音。我们可以听取不同方面的声音，在这次牛市过程中，很诡异的事情是产业资本都在减持，而大众热情高涨，带来了交易量、交易价格的上升。如何在不踏空的情况下控制住风险，使我们都应该注意到的。

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https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Xkh0v4g_jksECcqilnHMlg

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