2018 GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSFORMATION：A Roadmap to 2050

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2018 GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSFORMATION：A Roadmap to 2050 76页

CONTENTS
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  08
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Status of the energy transition: A mixed picture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions: Bridging the gap. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
A pathway for the transformation of the global energy system. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Country ambition for the energy transition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Analysis and insights in key sectors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  .31
Transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
Buildings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Costs, investments and reduced externalities of the energy transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
Socio-economic benefits of the energy transition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Global GDP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Employment in the global economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Global energy sector employment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51
Global welfare. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Regional GDP, employment, welfare. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
How finance affects the energy transition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Key socio-economic messages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
How to foster the global energy transformation: Key focus areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Focus Area 1. Tap into the strong synergies between energy efficiency and renewable energy.. . . . 69
Focus Area 2. Plan a power sector for which renewables provide a high share of the energy. . . . . . 70
Focus Area 3. Increase use of electricity in transport, building and industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
Focus Area 4. Foster system-wide innovation.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71
Focus Area 5. Align socio-economic structures and investment with the transition.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71
Focus Area 6. Ensure that transition costs and benefits are fairly distributed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

FIGURES
Figure 1. In under 20 years the global energy-related CO2 emissions
budget to keep warming below 2°C would be exhausted . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Figure 2. Renewable energy and energy efficiency can provide over 90%
of the reduction in energy-related CO2 emissions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Figure 3. The global share of renewable energy would need to increase to
two-thirds and TPES would need to remain flat over the period to 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Figure 4. The rising importance of electricity derived from renewable energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Figure 5. Significant improvements in energy intensity are needed and
the share of renewable energy must rise. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Figure 6. Renewable energy should be scaled up to meet power, heat and transport needs. . . . . 26
Figure 7. The declining importance of fossil fuels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Figure 8. A rapid and significant decline in energy-related CO2 emissions
is necessary in all countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Figure 9. Transforming energy demand in the transport sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
Figure 10. Infographic transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Figure 11. The increasing use of electricity in buildings and the decline of fossil fuels.. . . . . . . . . . 34
Figure 12. Infographic buildings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  . . . . 35
Figure 13. A diverse energy mix with sizable bioenergy demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Figure 14. Infographic industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Figure 15. The rising importance of solar and wind energy in the power sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Figure 16. Infographic power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  . . . . . 40
Figure 17. Investment will need to shift to renewable energy and energy efficiency. . . . . . . . . . . . .41
Figure 18. Reduced externalities far outweigh the costs of the energy transition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Figure 19. Obtaining the socio-economic footprint from a given combination of an energy
transition roadmap and a socio-economic system structure and outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Figure 20. The energy transition results in GDP growth higher than the Reference Case
between 2018 and 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Figure 21. The energy transition results in employment growth higher than
the Reference Case between 2018 and 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Figure 22. The energy transition would generate over 11 million additional energy
sector jobs by 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Figure 23. The energy transition would generate 14 million additional jobs in renewable
energy by 2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Figure 24. Components of the welfare indicator used in this analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Figure 25. The energy transition generates significant increases in global welfare. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Figure 26. Impact of the energy transition on GDP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Figure 27. Impact of the energy transition on welfare. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Figure 28. Impact of the energy transition on employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Figure 29. Crowding out of capital does affect employment, but the energy transition
still generates positive employment growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Figure 30. Planning for the energy transition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .68

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