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英文文献：Does system instability harm development? A comparative empirical study of the long run-制度不稳定危害发展吗?长期的比较实证研究
英文文献作者：Martin Paldam
英文文献摘要：
The paper looks at the effect of instability of political and economic institutions, using the Polity and the Fraser indices to characterize the two dimensions of society. The indices are used to derive three measures of instability: VP and VF are the average numerical annual change in each index, and ZP is the fraction of years under anarchy. All three have a negative correlation to growth. Two main theories are considered: One is the long-run transition-link: High growth in low- and middle-income countries gives a faster transition and hereby more system instability. The second is the short-run investment link: System instability gives an uncertain and unpredictable environment that harms investment, and hence growth. The combination of the two links is a main reason why the potential high growth of less developed countries is so difficult to achieve.
摘要本文以政体与弗雷泽指数来描述社会的两个维度，探讨政治与经济制度不稳定的影响。这些指数被用来推导出三种不稳定的度量:VP和VF是每个指数中年度变化的平均数值，ZP是无政府状态下年份的分数。这三个因素都与经济增长呈负相关。本文考虑了两种主要理论:一种是长期转型关联:中低收入国家的高增长使转型速度更快，因而增加了系统的不稳定性。第二个是短期投资关联:系统不稳定带来了不确定和不可预测的环境，从而损害了投资，进而损害了增长。这两种联系的结合是欠发达国家难以实现潜在高增长的一个主要原因。
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