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Price and Time Decision Points the W. D. Gann Way
W. D. Gann was an incredible chartist and trader back in the early part ofthe 20th Century. One of the most powerful technical analysis methods he sharedin the works he left behind was the application of 'percentage movements'.
Gann believed (and has demonstrated) that important price levels could bedetermined by dividing ranges by 8 as well as 3. He then pointed out that thesedivisional price points had different levels of importance.
For example, dividing a range by 8 you would end up with percentage levelsof 12.5, 25, 37.5, 50, 62.5, 75 and 87.5. And of course there is 100%, althoughfocus is on the divisions of the complete 100% range.
First level of importance is generally considered the 50% level. Afterthat would be 33.3 and 66.66 (thirds).
These levels could be determined on a market that is correcting (movingback within the price range the divisions are derived from) in order to try anddetermine price levels that might stop the correction, or they could be addedto the end of the price range to determine levels of extension (beyond therange).
For the first example, say price moves up from a bottom at 100 and stopsat 200, then starts down again. The range equals 100 points, so the supportlevels would be 200 (the top of the range) minus 12.5 (187.50), 25 (175), 37.5(162.5) and so-forth.
For the second example using the same range as the previous example, theextended price levels would be 200 (again the top of the range) plus 12.5(212.5), 25 (225)... 50 (250) and so-forth. And of course you would do the samewith the levels calculated from thirds.
These levels act as price decision points, where the technical analyst andtrader would then have to further determine if price is likely to make bottomor top at that level. While price often forms bottoms and tops at one of theselevels, knowing which one requires more than just noticing a pause in priceaction at that level.
Thus, W. D. Gann also expressed how these percentage calculations can beapplied to TIME. For example, if the range from 100 to 200 took 28 days tocomplete, that gives a range in TIME as well.
With your range in time, best divided in quarters (25, 50, 75, 100) andthirds (33.33, 66.66) and the result added to the last day of that range, you getpoints in time where you would look to see if price is also at one of thesupport or resistance levels you calculated from price.
This is just one of the many valuable methods taught by W. D. Gann thatevery technical trader should know and put into practice.
2019年8月29日下午三点收盘后焦炭主力合约J2001分析结果供29日夜盘或明天日盘参考。
Price is currently in the SECOND 4 day cycle,of the SECOND 8 day cycle, of the SECOND 17 day cycle, of the FIRST 34 daycycle, of the 67 day cycle.
Updated FPA reveals that the dominant cyclehas a wavelength of 34.8d, or 35 bars. This is assumed to be the 40d nominalwave, which implies that all waves will be approximately the same (3% variance)as nominal. This cycle is overdue for a TROUGH (and a minor nest-of-lows). Theunderlying trend to this cycle is currently slightly DOWN, likely accelerating.Recent fulfilled projections confirm the trend is DOWN, but indicate that it isSTRONGLY DOWN. The future FLD indicates that this cycle will influence pricesto form a trough in a short while, and then rise.
The sub-dominant cycle (next wave down fromthe dominant cycle) has a wavelength of 17.3d, or 17 bars. This is assumed tobe the 20d nominal wave. This cycle is overdue for a TROUGH (and a very minornest-of-lows). This is probably the SECOND of 2 sub-waves. The underlying trendto this cycle is currently FLAT, likely turning UP. Recent fulfilledprojections however would seem to indicate that the underlying trend isSTRONGLY DOWN. The future FLD indicates that this cycle will influence pricesto rise for a short time, and then form a peak.
The pre-dominant cycle (next wave up from thedominant cycle) has a wavelength of 67.5d, or 68 bars. This is assumed to bethe 80d nominal wave. This cycle is just beginning to FALL. The underlyingtrend to this cycle is currently slightly DOWN, likely accelerating. Recentfulfilled projections however would seem to indicate that the underlying trendis STRONGLY UP. The future FLD indicates that this cycle will influence pricesto rise for a short time, and then form a peak.
ΣL is currently DOWN (strength: 1), and accelerating.
The 34.8d CYCLE component of Σ L is currentlySTRONGLY DOWN (strength: -3 cycles), and accelerating.
The 17.3d CYCLE component of Σ L is currentlyDOWN (strength: 1), but decelerating.
The 8.8d CYCLE component of Σ L is currentlyDOWN (strength: 1), and accelerating.
The 4.4d CYCLE component of Σ L is currentlySTRONGLY DOWN (strength: -2 cycles), and accelerating.
The 4.4d cycle might be the ideal tradingcycle, with an average potential of 5.2% per half-cycle. This equates to 51.8%because of leverage settings. However trading such a short cycle is notrecommended. The 17.3d cycle is therefore recommended with an average potentialof 8.6% per half-cycle. This equates to 86.0% because of leverage settings.
The last phasing analysis was 1 bar ago. Inthat time price has FALLEN by 29.5 to 1857.50.
FLD PATTERN PROGRESSION:
Sequence Ref #0 is expected to reach a LOWERtarget of 1824.27(24.89 diff) 2 bars LATER, on 2019/8/29
Sequence Ref #1 is expected to reach a HIGHERtarget of 2037.17(25.51 diff) 2 bars EARLIER, on 2019/9/13
DETAILED FLD PATTERN/PRICE CORRELATION:
Price did not move DOWN as it was expected toby the FIRST sequence (ref #0) of the previous pattern and so has got no closerto the target of 1824.27. The closest price has gotten to this target so far is1831.00 (0.4% short), 1 bar ago. This target is only expected to be achieved in0 bars, but it MIGHT be necessary to consider this target as having beenachieved with a shortfall.
The SECOND sequence (ref #1) of the previouspattern could have started, in which case: Price has got no closer to thetarget of 2037.17. The closest price has gotten to this target so far is1895.00 (7.0% short), 1 bar ago. This target is only expected to be achieved in15 bars.
CURRENT FLD PATTERN PROJECTION:
Price is currently moving DOWN (last close1857.5), with the FLD pattern indicating an impending UPWARD move, because: Itis possible that the first sequence of the FLD pattern has already beenfulfilled, by the low of 1831 on 2019/8/28 which would indicate that thesecond, UPWARD sequence of the pattern is now in progress.
The first FLD pattern sequence (ref #0)projects a price movement DOWN to a target of 1824.27 by about 2019/8/29.
The second FLD pattern sequence (ref #1)projects a price movement UP to a target of 2037.17 by about 2019/9/5. Thismove would imply a 3-tier cascade of price crosses over the 8 day to 34 dayFLDs (est: 2019/8/31 & level: 1913.11) . This price move breaks above the 8day, and the 4 day, and the 17 day VTL implying that the price trough of 1831on 2019/8/28 is the expected trough of the 34 day cycle.
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