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英文文献：Optimal control of a stochastic biological invasion-随机生物入侵的最优控制
英文文献作者：Chalak, Morteza,Pannell, David J.
英文文献摘要：
Although there have been numerous studies on the economics of weed control, relatively few of these studies have focused on natural ecosystems. The aims of this papers are: A) to identify the combination of control options that is optimal for blackberry (Rubus anglocandicans) in Australian natural ecosystems, B) to assess whether an integrated control strategy is superior to chemical-only strategies, C) to evaluate the economic net benefits of specific biologically oriented control methods (a rust and grazing by goats), D) to determine how changes in model parameters affect the optimal control strategy. To address these aims, a stochastic dynamic simulation model and a stochastic dynamic programming model are developed. The results indicate that, while an integrated strategy combining chemical and non-chemical control methods may be optimal in certain circumstances, it is not necessarily superior to a chemical-dominant strategy in all cases. Results show that in most cases a combination of herbicides and one physical control method (mowing) is optimal in the base-case scenario. However, if chemical efficacy is greater than in the base-case, the optimal strategy involves chemicals only. The results indicate that grazing goats for control of blackberry can be optimal despite its stochastic effectiveness and relatively low efficacy.
虽然已经有很多关于杂草控制的经济学研究，但相对较少的研究集中在自然生态系统。本论文的目的:1)确定控制选项的组合最优黑莓(悬钩子属植物anglocandicans)在澳大利亚的自然生态系统,B)来评估是否一个集成控制策略优于chemical-only策略,C)来评估特定生物的经济净效益导向的控制方法(铁锈和放牧山羊),D)来确定模型参数的变化如何影响最优控制策略。为了解决这些问题，本文建立了随机动态仿真模型和随机动态规划模型。研究结果表明，化学与非化学控制相结合的综合防治策略在某些情况下可能是最优的，但并不一定在所有情况下都优于化学控制策略。结果表明，在大多数情况下，在基本情况下，除草剂和一种物理防治方法(刈割)的组合是最优的。然而，如果化学效果大于基本情况，最佳策略只涉及化学。结果表明，放牧山羊对黑莓的控制效果是最佳的，但其控制效果随机且相对较低。
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