发帖
雷达卡
英文文献：Investment and Disinvestment in Irrigation Technology – An Experimental Analysis of Farmers’ Decision Behavior –-灌溉技术投资与反投资——农民决策行为的实验分析
英文文献作者：Ihli, Hanna Julia,Maart, Syster Christin,Musshoff, Oliver
英文文献摘要：
In agriculture, long-term decisions are usually made in an environment which is almost completely dynamic. For example, uncertainty arises from weather and climatic conditions. (Dis)investment in irrigation technology on farms has become more prominent over the past decade. The use of irrigation has become crucial in many parts of the world as an adaptation strategy to climate change. The purpose of this study is to test whether the Real Options Approach can help to explain why farmers often choose to postpone (dis)investments that appear to be immediately profitable. We combine investment and disinvestment decisions in one experiment using a “within-subject” design and carrying out a comparative analysis between the Net Present Value approach and the Real Options Approach in order to ascertain which of the methods provides a better prediction of the investment and disinvestment behavior of farmers. In our study, we consider a simple optimal stopping (dis)investment problem in which farmers can invest in as well as abandon irrigation technology. Our results show that both theories do not explain the observed (dis)investment behavior exactly. However, some evidence was found that the Real Options Approach provides a better prediction of the (dis)investment behavior of farmers than the Net Present Value approach. Moreover, we find that farmers learn from repeated investment decision-making and consider the value of waiting over time, whereas in disinvestment situations, farmers exaggerate the option to delay. We also find that farmers demonstrate different (dis)investment behavior depending on the order in which they were faced with the investment and disinvestment treatments.
在农业领域，长期决策通常是在一个几乎完全动态的环境中做出的。例如，不确定性来自天气和气候条件。在过去十年中，对农场灌溉技术的投资变得更加突出。作为适应气候变化的策略，灌溉的使用在世界许多地区已经变得至关重要。本研究的目的是测试实物期权方法是否有助于解释为什么农民经常选择推迟那些看起来马上就能获利的投资。我们把投资和收回投资决策在一个实验中使用“试”的设计和实施之间的比较分析净现值方法和实物期权方法以确定的方法提供了一个更好的预测投资和农民的减持行为。在我们的研究中，我们考虑了一个简单的最优停止(dis)投资问题，农民可以投资灌溉技术，也可以放弃灌溉技术。我们的结果表明，这两种理论都不能准确地解释所观察到的(dis)投资行为。然而，一些证据发现实物期权方法比净现值方法能更好地预测农民的投资行为。此外，我们发现农民从重复的投资决策中学习并考虑了等待时间的价值，而在减少投资的情况下，农民夸大了延迟的选择。我们还发现，农户面对投资和反投资处理的顺序不同，表现出不同的投资行为。
京公网安备 11010802022788号
