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英文文献：Valuing Asset Insurance in the Presence of Poverty Traps: A Dynamic Approach-在存在贫困陷阱的情况下评估资产保险:一种动态方法
英文文献作者：Janzen, Sarah A.,Carter, Michael R.,Ikegami, Munenobu
英文文献摘要：
Ample evidence exists to suggest that nonlinear asset dynamics can give rise to an environment of poverty traps. When dynamic asset thresholds matter, risk not only affects households ex post, but it also influences ex ante behavior. In this environment some house-holds may have much to gain from a productive safety net which prevents asset levels from dipping below the Micawber threshold. Insurance is a market-based mechanism that can act as a safety net, improving the risk management strategies available to vulnerable households. In this paper we use dynamic programming methods to assess whether vulnerable households will `self-select' into an asset insurance scheme. We show that while such households opti- mally insure at low levels, insurance serves to crowd in additional investment, causing a shift in the Micawber threshold. This investment comes from the hope of reduced vulnerability that insurance offers in the future. Finally, we use our model to make predictions about the value of index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) in Marsabit district of northern Kenya. Our results suggest that the behavioral changes brought about by insurance may result in decreased poverty levels over time.
有充分的证据表明，非线性资产动力学可以导致贫困陷阱的环境。当动态资产阈值起作用时，风险不仅影响家庭事后行为，还影响家庭事前行为。在这种环境下，防止资产水平跌至米考伯门槛以下的生产性安全网，可能会让一些购房者获益良多。保险是一种以市场为基础的机制，可以作为安全网，改善弱势家庭可用的风险管理策略。在本文中，我们使用动态规划的方法来评估弱势家庭是否会“自我选择”进入资产保险计划。我们的研究表明，虽然这类家庭通常投保的水平较低，但保险会吸引更多的投资，导致米考伯门槛发生变化。这项投资来自于减少保险在未来提供的脆弱性的希望。最后，我们使用我们的模型对肯尼亚北部Marsabit区基于指数的牲畜保险(IBLI)的价值进行了预测。我们的研究结果表明，随着时间的推移，保险带来的行为变化可能会导致贫困水平的下降。
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