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英文文献：Improving land-use modelling within CGE to assess forest-based mitigation potential and costs-改进CGE内的土地使用模型，以评估以森林为基础的缓解潜力和成本
英文文献作者：Michetti, Melania,Parrado, Ramiro
英文文献摘要：
We present a computable general equilibrium model properly modified to analyse the potential role of the European forestry sector within climate mitigation. Improvements on database and modelling frameworks allow accounting for land heterogeneity across and within regions and for land transfers between agriculture, grazing, and forestry. The forestry sector has been modified to track carbon mitigation potential from both intensive and extensive forest margins, which have been calibrated according to a forest sectoral model. Two sets of climate policies are simulated. In a first scenario, Europe is assumed to commit unilaterally to reduce CO2 emissions of 20% and 30%, by 2020. In a second scenario, in addition to the emissions quotas, progressively higher forest-sequestration subsidies are paid to European firms to foster the implementation of forestry practices. Results show that including forest carbon in the compliance strategy decreases European policy costs and carbon price, although public spending is redirected towards the financing of the forest sequestration subsidy. Comparing public spending and savings in policy costs a net positive balance is reported for all the European regions. Significant reductions in carbon leakage or pressure on food security and deforestation outside Europe are not acknowledged.
我们提出了一个可计算的一般平衡模型，该模型经过适当修改，以分析欧洲林业部门在气候缓解方面的潜在作用。数据库和模型框架的改进可以考虑到区域间和区域内的土地异质性，以及农业、放牧和林业之间的土地转让。对林业部门进行了修改，以跟踪密集和大面积森林边际的碳减排潜力，并根据森林部门模型对其进行了校准。模拟了两套气候政策。在第一种情况下，欧洲被假定单方面承诺到2020年减少20%和30%的二氧化碳排放。在第二种情况下，除了排放配额之外，还向欧洲公司逐步支付较高的森林封存补贴，以促进林业做法的执行。结果表明，在遵守战略中纳入森林碳降低了欧洲的政策成本和碳价格，尽管公共支出会转向为森林固碳补贴融资。比较公共支出和政策成本的节省，所有欧洲地区的净余额都为正。碳泄漏的显著减少、粮食安全的压力以及欧洲以外的森林砍伐都没有得到承认。
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