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作者：克劳斯·亚当迈克尔·伍德福德
摘要:
我们对具有住房部门的增强型新凯恩斯主义模型的最优货币政策进行了分析表征。在私营部门对未来住房价格和通货膨胀具有理性预期的情况下，可以在不考虑住房价格变化的情况下确定最优货币政策的特征：对涉及通货膨胀且产出差距仅是最优的“目标标准”的承诺，就像没有住房部门的标准模型一样。当决策者关注私营部门预期与合理预期的背离，并试图选择对这种可能背离有力的政策时，最佳目标标准还必须取决于房价。在有经验的现实情况下，如果住房得到补贴，而垄断力量导致产出无法达到最佳水平，那么稳健的最佳目标标准就要求中央银行“倚赖”房价：在房价意外上涨之后，政策应采用这种立场预计将超出通货膨胀和产出缺口的正常目标，并且类似地旨在在房价意外下跌的情况下超过这些目标。稳健的最佳目标标准不需要政策区分房价的“基本”运动和“非基本”运动。政策应该采取一种预计会低于通货膨胀和产出缺口的正常目标的立场，并且类似地旨在在房价意外下跌的情况下超过这些目标。稳健的最佳目标标准不需要政策区分房价的“基本”运动和“非基本”运动。政策应该采取一种预计会低于通货膨胀和产出缺口的正常目标的立场，并且类似地旨在在房价意外下跌的情况下超过这些目标。稳健的最佳目标标准不需要政策区分房价的“基本”运动和“非基本”运动。
AbstractWe analytically characterize optimal monetary policy for an augmented New Keynesian model with a housing sector. In a setting where the private sector has rational expectations about future housing prices and inflation, optimal monetary policy can be characterized without making reference to housing price developments: commitment to a ‘target criterion’ that refers to inflation and the output gap only is optimal, as in the standard model without a housing sector. When the policymaker is concerned with potential departures of private sector expectations from rational ones and seeks to choose a policy that is robust against such possible departures, then the optimal target criterion must also depend on housing prices. In the empirically realistic case where housing is subsidized and where monopoly power causes output to fall short of its optimal level, the robustly optimal target criterion requires the central bank to ‘lean against’ housing prices: following unexpected housing price increases, policy should adopt a stance that is projected to undershoot its normal targets for inflation and the output gap, and similarly aim to overshoot those targets in the case of unexpected declines in housing prices. The robustly optimal target criterion does not require that policy distinguish between ‘fundamental’ and ‘non-fundamental’ movements in housing prices.
依靠房价作为稳健的最佳货币政策.pdf
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