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英文文献：Inter-and intra-annual global crop acreage response to prices and price risk-年度间和年度内全球作物面积对价格和价格风险的反应
英文文献作者：Haile, Mekbib G.,Kalkuhl, Matthias,Braun, Joachim von
英文文献摘要：
Understanding how producers make decisions to allot acreage among crops and how decisions about land use are affected by changes in prices and their volatility is fundamental for predicting the supply of staple crops and, hence, assessing the global food supply situation. The innovations of the present paper are estimates of monthly (i.e. seasonal) versus annual global acreage response models for four staple crops: wheat, soybeans, corn and rice. We focus on the impact of (expected) crop prices, oil and fertilizer prices and market risks as main determinants for farmers’ decisions on how to allocate their land. Primary emphasis is given to the magnitude and speed of the allocation process. Estimation of intra-annual acreage elasticity is crucial for expected supply and for input demand, especially in the light of the recent short-term volatility in food prices. Such aggregate estimates are also valuable to verify whether involved country-specific estimations add up to patterns that are apparent in the aggregate international data. The econometric results indicate that global crop acreage responds to crop prices and price risks, input costs as well as a time trend. Depending on respective crop, short-run elasticities are about 0.05 to 0.25; price volatility tends to reduce acreage response of some crops; comparison of the annual and the monthly acreage response elasticities suggests that acreage adjusts seasonally around the globe to new information and expectations. Given the seasonality of agriculture, time is of the essence for acreage response: The analysis indicates that acreage allocation is more sensitive to prices in northern hemisphere spring than in winter and the response varies across months.
了解生产者如何决定在作物之间分配种植面积，以及关于土地使用的决定如何受到价格变化及其波动的影响，是预测主要作物供应并因此评估全球粮食供应状况的基础。本论文的创新之处在于对四种主要作物(小麦、大豆、玉米和水稻)的月度(即季节性)全球面积响应模型与年度模型的估计。我们关注(预期的)农作物价格、石油和化肥价格以及市场风险对农民如何分配土地的决定因素的影响。主要的重点是分配过程的大小和速度。估计年度内面积弹性对预期供应和投入需求至关重要，特别是考虑到最近粮食价格的短期波动。这种综合估计数对于核查所涉国家的具体估计数加起来是否符合国际综合数据中明显的模式也很有价值。计量经济学结果表明，全球农作物种植面积与作物价格、价格风险、投入成本以及时间趋势有关。根据不同的作物，短期弹性约为0.05到0.25;价格波动会降低某些作物的面积响应;对年面积响应弹性和月面积响应弹性的比较表明，全球面积根据新的信息和预期进行季节性调整。考虑到农业的季节性，时间对于面积响应至关重要:分析表明，北半球春季的面积配置对价格的影响比冬季更敏感，且响应随月份而变化。
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