我想请问一下,当迹检验和最大特征值检验结果都显示存在3个协整关系的时候,我该怎么往下做呢,我用的Eviews做VAR模型,现在进行到JJ协整检验了,到这一步不会了。还有协整方程是不是我要导出3个方程,那我这研究三个方程都成立吗?
做的FDI,进口额,出口额和GDP,滞后阶数是3,ADF检验一阶单整平稳。
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
DGDP EX FDI IM
-10.75907 -2.967900 -4.781928 6.677670
46.72316 -5.668782 0.666989 3.700190
2.005294 8.291806 -4.654958 -4.953844
63.81088 -1.959367 6.920795 -2.783201
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(DGDP) 0.004165 0.011047 0.000165 -0.006881
D(EX) 0.030410 0.092889 0.019219 -0.004420
D(FDI) 0.025571 0.065428 0.115695 0.020745
D(IM) -0.122740 0.091748 0.052134 -0.005197
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 108.9265
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
DGDP EX FDI IM
1.000000 0.275851 0.444456 -0.620655
(0.11573) (0.08492) (0.11211)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(DGDP) -0.044809
(0.07620)
D(EX) -0.327188
(0.37261)
D(FDI) -0.275121
(0.63527)
D(IM) 1.320567
(0.46497)
2 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 124.3391
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
DGDP EX FDI IM
1.000000 0.000000 0.145684 -0.134591
(0.03068) (0.01978)
0.000000 1.000000 1.083092 -1.762053
(0.21845) (0.14083)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(DGDP) 0.471341 -0.074983
(0.29540) (0.03942)
D(EX) 4.012889 -0.616824
(0.87959) (0.11739)
D(FDI) 2.781880 -0.446789
(2.65145) (0.35385)
D(IM) 5.607315 -0.155819
(1.53567) (0.20495)
3 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 131.4957
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
DGDP EX FDI IM
1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.030759
(0.00512)
0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 -0.990114
(0.02907)
0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 -0.712718
(0.03227)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(DGDP) 0.471673 -0.073612 -0.013317
(0.29565) (0.06453) (0.04132)
D(EX) 4.051428 -0.457465 -0.172927
(0.83065) (0.18130) (0.11609)
D(FDI) 3.013882 0.512528 -0.617193
(1.99000) (0.43433) (0.27812)
D(IM) 5.711859 0.276467 0.405446
(1.31777) (0.28761) (0.18417)
请教一下方程关系看哪里的值啊,然后方程怎么得到。下面分栏1,2,3,是什么意思