见图片
观测值的预测分布如下式:
怎么样才能求出观测值在t=8和t=9时的预测值?求高人给予帮助?
参数的估计代码本人已编出,如下:
model {
for (i in 1:n){
Y~dnorm(s,tauC)
s<-theta[1]/(1+theta[2]*exp(-theta[3]*t))}
theta[1]~dnorm(mu[1],tau[1])
theta[2]~dnorm(mu[2],tau[2])
theta[3]~dnorm(mu[3],tau[3])
tauC~dgamma(0.01,0.01)
sigmaC<-1/sqrt(tauC)
for (k in 1:3) {
mu[k]~dnorm(0,0.000001)
tau[k]~dgamma(0.01,0.01)}
}
#Data
list(n=7,t=c(1,2,3,4,5,6,7),Y=c(2,5,10,20,30,40,44))
#Init
list(theta=c(1,1,1),mu=c(1,1,1),tau=c(1,1,1),tauC=1)