深化竞争中性改革助力中国经济发展：上财中国宏观经济年度报告（2019-2020）概要

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1 论文标题

Promote Competitive Neutrality to Facilitate

China’s Economic Development: Outlook,

Policy Simulations, and Reform

Implementation—A Summary of the Annual

SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2019–2020)

2 作者信息

Kevin X.D. Huang

Zixi Liu

Guoqiang Tian

3 出处

Kevin X.D. Huang, Zixi Liu, Guoqiang Tian. Promote Competitive Neutrality to Facilitate China’s Economic Development: Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2019–2020)[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2020, 15(1): 1-24.

链接
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-011-020-0001-9
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/Y2020/V15/I1/1

4 摘要

Abstract:Twenty nineteen (2019) marked another year of lethargic growth in the Chinese economy amidst escalated internal and external complexities. Internally, the country’s macroeconomic landscape was overcast continuously by fallen consumption growth, plunged growth in manufacturing investment, rapid accumulation of household debt, risen income inequality, and the overhang of local government debt. The nation’s external conditions did not fare any better, with drastically declined growth in imports and exports, continued trade tensions with the US, and weakened external demand. Based on the IAR-CMM model, which takes account of both cyclical and secular factors, the baseline real GDP growth rate is projected to be 6.0% in 2020 (5.9% using more reliable rather than the official data), with a downside risk. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted, in addition to the benchmark forecast, to reflect the influences of various internal and external uncertainties. The findings emanated from these analyses lead us to stress the importance and urgency of deepening reform to achieve competitive neutrality for China’s transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality development.

深化竞争中性改革助力中国经济发展：前景展望、政策模拟与改革落实—上海财经大学中国宏观经济形势分析与预测年度报告（2019-2020）概要

黄晓东

刘子熙

田国强

摘要：2019年，中国经济在不断升级、内外交织的错综复杂局面下稳中求进。内部来看，中国宏观经济形势仍被消费增速下滑、制造业投资增长下滑、家庭债务快速累积、收入差距扩大、地方政府债务高企等因素阴影笼罩。外部条件则同样堪忧，进出口增长急剧下跌，与美国的贸易紧张局势持续不断，且外需疲软。基于上海财经大学高等研究院中国宏观经济预测模型（IAR-CMM），综合考虑周期性和长期性因素，课题组测算，在基准情景下，2020年全年实际GDP增速约为6.0%（经校正后的GDP增速约为5.9%），但有巨大下行风险。除基准情景外，我们还做了多种情景分析和政策模拟，以反映不同的内外部不确定性对中国经济的潜在影响。基于分析结果我们强调，通过深化改革实现竞争中性对于中国向可持续、高质量发展阶段转变既有重要性也有迫切性。

5. 作者附言

本文所有的分析和模拟都是在最近这次非冠状病毒的爆发前做完并发布的 -- 而本次史无前例的疫情大流行已经使整个经济的前景严重恶化，特别是短至中期内。从更加长远的角度看，基于我们在已发布的年度报告中所分析的结果，并结合最近疫情大流行所带来的巨大负面冲击，使得我们更加一如既往地强调，通过深化改革实现竞争中性对于中国向可持续、高质量发展阶段转变既有重要性也有迫切性。

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