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英文文献：A Percolation Model of the Product Lifecycle-产品生命周期的渗透模型
英文文献作者：Koen Frenken,Gerald Silverberg,Marco Valente
英文文献摘要：
The product lifecycle model can be understood as a three-stage model of technological development associated with a particular product technology. In the explorative stage many different designs are developed, in the development stage products become standardized into a dominant design, and in the mature stage only incremental changes occur within the dominant design. Although the product lifecycle model is widely accepted and often applied in empirical research, innovation scholars have failed to develop systematic theoretical models that explain the different stages of technological development along the lifecycle. In this study, an attempt is made to contribute to product lifecycle theory by developing a theoretical model based on percolation dynamics. The model combines the concept of increasing returns to adoption with information diffusion among consumers within social networks. The main contribution of the model is that it replicates the three stages of the product lifecycle as an outcome of a single elementary process. The model also replicates the S-shaped diffusion curve and the occurrence of an industry shakeout.
产品生命周期模型可以理解为与特定产品技术相关联的技术开发的三个阶段模型。在探索阶段，许多不同的设计被开发出来，在开发阶段，产品被标准化成为主导设计，而在成熟阶段，只有在主导设计内发生增量变化。虽然产品生命周期模型已被广泛接受并经常应用于实证研究，但创新学者尚未形成系统的理论模型来解释技术发展在生命周期中的不同阶段。本研究试图通过建立一个基于渗透动力学的理论模型，为产品生命周期理论做出贡献。该模型结合了增加采用回报的概念和社交网络中消费者之间的信息扩散。该模型的主要贡献在于，它将产品生命周期的三个阶段复制为单个基本过程的结果。该模型还复制了s型扩散曲线和行业洗牌的发生。
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