第一次的结果:
Null Hypothesis: RESID_B has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=7)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.006147 0.2743
Test critical values: 1% level -2.653401
5% level -1.953858
10% level -1.609571
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(RESID_B)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/10/10 Time: 19:42
Sample (adjusted): 1982 2008
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
RESID_B(-1) -0.143240 0.142365 -1.006147 0.3248
D(RESID_B(-1)) -0.432671 0.195250 -2.215980 0.0369
D(RESID_B(-2)) -0.432156 0.171238 -2.523720 0.0190
D(RESID_B(-3)) -0.503142 0.160303 -3.138701 0.0046
R-squared 0.454390 Mean dependent var -515.5667
Adjusted R-squared 0.383223 S.D. dependent var 21807.11
S.E. of regression 17126.24 Akaike info criterion 22.47056
Sum squared resid 6.75E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.66254
Log likelihood -299.3526 Durbin-Watson stat 1.953005
第二次的结果:
Null Hypothesis: RESID_B has a unit root
Exogenous: None
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=7)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.067368 0.0034
Test critical values: 1% level -2.644302
5% level -1.952473
10% level -1.610211
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(RESID_B)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 07/10/10 Time: 20:23
Sample (adjusted): 1979 2008
Included observations: 30 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
RESID_B(-1) -0.492944 0.160706 -3.067368 0.0046
R-squared 0.244897 Mean dependent var 182.1733
Adjusted R-squared 0.244897 S.D. dependent var 19778.21
S.E. of regression 17186.60 Akaike info criterion 22.37441
Sum squared resid 8.57E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.42112
Log likelihood -334.6162 Durbin-Watson stat 2.387599