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127# feng-pan
不好意思，作为入门者不太明白127楼图里的这句话“这5个地方都是大资金刻意打小单止损的地方”请问一下
1，“打小单”是什么意思？
2，怎么看出来是大资金刻意大小单？
谢谢指导

127# feng-pan

连续小额亏损后停下显然是正确的选择，否则成赌博了。

技术上感觉波浪理论结合费波拉契线在这种过山车般的走势中比较好用。前面5波向上已经完成。现在从这5波的最高点向下看, 今天的做空入场点最普通的选择应在38.2%处。今天到50.0%处反弹，明天周5. 则可考虑在 61.8%处抓反弹做多。

江湖小虾米 发表于 2010-8-20 09:16
127# feng-pan
不好意思，作为入门者不太明白127楼图里的这句话“这5个地方都是大资金刻意打小单止损的地方”请问一下
1，“打小单”是什么意思？
2，怎么看出来是大资金刻意大小单？
谢谢指导

有时候价格到了很明显的支撑/阻力位，大家就都会把止损紧贴着点位放（尤其是我这样的操作系统，止损都只有一个tick那么远），而大笔的资金就会利用这一点，故意反着市场做，让价格稍微突破支撑/阻力位，然后再弹回来。这样的结果就是我这种小单子全部被止损，而大资金作为对手盘就都把单子吃了过去。大资金这么做的好处一是可以建立更大的头寸（就跟庄家震盘吸筹是一个道理），二是可以获得更大的利润空间。  

而小资金的单子如果把止损放远了，在这种情况下虽然能避过去，但长期来看由于增大了风险-收益比例，却是无法赢利的。 所以碰到这种情况也比较无奈，大鱼要吃小鱼，小鱼也没有办法。   以后慢慢多积累一些经验可能就好一些。 导师其实警告过说昨天可能会发生这种情况，可惜我经验尚浅，还是中招了。

老渔夫 发表于 2010-8-20 09:33
127# feng-pan

连续小额亏损后停下显然是正确的选择，否则成赌博了。

技术上感觉波浪理论结合费波拉契线在这种过山车般的走势中比较好用。前面5波向上已经完成。现在从这5波的最高点向下看, 今天的做空入场点最普通的选择应在38.2%处。今天到50.0%处反弹，明天周5. 则可考虑在 61.8%处抓反弹做多。

恩，确实也看过波浪对现在的分析，前两天反弹后预期一波下跌。   所以昨天看跌势起来了就不断地想做空。  不过用波浪的操作多是做中线，止损要放很远。 公司的风险控制是每天只有20个tick的净亏损额度，到了就砍仓。所以我每笔的止损都不可能大于6个tick（通常是2-3个tick），需要再多止损的机会就不做了。

Time	Position	Entry	Target	Stop	Actual	Profit/	Reason for trade and what happened	Learning points	Other points
(GMT)		Price	Profit	Loss	Exit	(Loss)
14:30	Long	1069.25	1076	1067.75	1067.75	(75.00)	S&P broke a resistance and an uptrend was formed before US open. Longed at a retrace back to the break point, and looked for the intra-day high. Stopped out.		S&P had tested the important support level on daily chart, twice. But it looked like may need another test after US open.
14:34	Long	1068.5	1070	1067.5	1070	75.00	Price bounced up from the EMA, went for a quick long and looked for the high just been made 4mins ago. Target filled
14:45	Long	1066.25	1071	1065	1065	(62.50)	Price came back to test the support level once more. Went long to trade the bouce up. Stopped out.	Entry wasn't good enough, and it cost the trade.	Not patientient enough to wait for a better entry price this time.
14:52	Long	1064.5	1066	1064	1065.75	62.5	Got the entry point right this time. Looked for the previous bar's low first, and finally the intra-day high. Target filled		This time 'assume' the price will go all the way up to the intra-day high. Strategy was to close for profit at each resistance, and get back in after the level breaks, as long as the uptrend is NOT finished.
14:54:57	Long	1066.25	1067	1065.75	1067	37.50	Still in the process of last trade.
14:59:36	Long	1067.5	1071	1066.75(trailed to 1067.25)	1067.25	(12.50)	Still in the process of last trade.		Now that the price had broken the EMA, it singaled the trend was over. So no need to get back in any more. This strategy works better in strong trends. The price turned out to be just consolidation. Nevertheless, it's worth the effort to take the chances, considering not much to lose if wrong.
15:45	Long	1068.25	1071	1067.25	1067.25	(50.00)	Price had tested the support level once more, and a potential trangle breakout after consolidation. Went long and looked for a previous high.	With out the confirmation on hourly chart and the candlestick patten, this was not a high probability trade.	Perhaps shouldn't take the trade? Anyway, since the market was indecisive at the moument, the best case scenario would be to trade the breakout on the big support level on daily chart. Otherwise should just stay out of it.

136# feng-pan

问题：
1，已经列出了7个trade，有没有 overtrade 啊？
2，daytrade 要不要看 MACD，RSI 或者 Stochastic 等查考指标作为入场点？
3，大趋势已经确定向下，反向抓反弹应怎样确定入场点？

中间有四笔是连在一起的，只是出来又进去，跳过了一些阻力位置。（因为不太确定能弹多高，所以假设可以一直到日内高点，然后按着策略操作）。

现在看指标比较少了。不过想这样的混乱震荡，指标也都失效了。

第三个问题就不好说了。  我也没有太好的方法，尤其是像现在这样的summer market，走势都怪怪的，不好做。

138# feng-pan


下周如向下突破 1056，又该看低到1010了。

请问一下，美国星期二和星期三公布的房屋销售数据会带来什么影响呢?
会不会美国在星期一出现震荡？而公布数据后出现明确的方向呢？