交易纪录

这篇东西太重要了，用回中文写。

美国的早盘发生了两件重要的事情。

一是昨天的节奏运动的持续形态失效，这是自9月以来第一个失效的持续形态（没有形成更高的高点）。
二是小时图上第一次出现尺度达到一周之大的反转形态（头肩顶），见图：

唯一不确定的是颈线的判断。但如果后面价格跌破日线的SMA20，那么就可以在很大程度上肯定一次至少是次要修正开始了。周线图上还有循环周期和点位的确认，收工后整理在一起再贴出来。

771# 江湖小虾米

头肩顶基本已经形成，接下来需要进一步确认。   这个反转形态出现的时机非常重要。

不过你看图的时候头肩顶还没有形成．　当时还处在持续形态当中，按照形态来交易的话应该做多而不是做空．

这个头肩型态如果确立的话，按照测量原理，标普的修正目标至少是１１５０区域．　这个区域也是一个重要支撑位．　　

773# feng-pan
为什么说“ 这个反转形态出现的时机非常重要”？

所有的东西，技术的，消息的，时间点，都吻合的很好．　这是修正开始的高成功率判断．　

晚点会把全部的分析写出来．

Fact 1: Pattern
Resversal pattern on hourly chart
Below is the S&P emini hourly chart.(basically the same as S&P chart) A head and shoulders pattern has been formed during the last 5 trading days.
Judging by the scale, this is the first reversal pattern with a scale large enough to be a proper one. And it's quite classic.
(mind the invalidation and confirmations on the chart)


Fact 2: R/S level and time cycle
Below is the S&P weekly chart
With the resistance level and the cycles, this is another strong confirmation with the reversal pattern.


Fact 3: News
The expectation QE2 has yeild too much into price. And now the market is doubting it's original estimation. It doesn't matter now of more or less the market think the QE2 turns out to be. Only the uncertainty itself would cause some risk sell-off.

Fact 4: Timing
The market expects details of QE2 (scale and structure) to come out on the next FOMC, which is on Nov 2nd and NOV 3rd. Any thing doesn't go way better than expected is gonna cause some serious sell-into-fact behaviour.

Conclusion: Everything is ready for at least a minor correction

Personal view:
To project the correction target, simply measure the same length from the head to neckline on the pattern, and move it from the neckline to the downside. That gives the target arround 1150-1140 area. Persoanlly I think 1150 could be view as a pivot level, so it might provide some good support on the way down.
If this correction happens as expected, 1150 may not be the end, but it would very likely be the first target.
Overall, my personal view is that this should be a minor correction, and the S&P should take another attempt to take the Aprils' high afterwards.(that's what the patterns on daily chart suggests)

RIght now, everything is still at early stage, and needs more confirmation. By the end of this week, we sould have a much clearer view ahead of the FOMC, hopefully.

本来想看看能不能反扑到颈线的，但是太晚了（北京时间3点17分了），还是睡去了。今晚又学到不少东西。

今天的CME场内的评论.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nLOfj-mpvg&feature=sub

我基本毫无差别的同意他们的观点。

近几天开市就放空钩，暂无大鱼上钓。预期周4，周五应有斩获。在国内作美股真是太累，到现在还没坚持过午夜两点。
基本策略：SP 只要不向上突破1200，所有的高点都是做空的机会。小鱼小虾都是肉！

小时图的头肩顶没坚持到一天， 刚才已经失效了。