缘何增高银行准备金率比增高利息率要好？

我问一句，提高0.5个百分点可以回笼多少资金？

我觉得这次通胀 直接原因并非流动性泛滥 而是对于中长期低利率的预期。
这次农产品的炒作起于大蒜、绿豆这样不易变质的产品，可以说这些产品具有了类似期货标的的性质。这和07年由于猪肉供给下降价格陡升所掀起的通胀，有所不同。
较低的资金成本下 又没有好的项目（对实体经济担忧），于是资金把目标对准了这些产品以及虚拟经济。
而没选择加息 可能考虑到国内实体经济的现实情况和严峻的就业压力

12# 贺俊翔

首先对于11楼仁兄的问题，我表示我不是统计学的...确实没有仔细算过。我分析出的结果是，增加银行储备金率会拥有更好的效益。

然后对于12楼。
我表示赞同你的观点。这次通胀不同于那次的通胀。
这次通胀我认为其实本来就是应该来的，双松下必然引起一定程度的通胀，但是速度应该没有现在这么快。

这么快的原因我初步认为是这样几条：
1)经济危机使他国对中国的期望过高，对人民币升值的预期太高涨。
2)由于第一条(升值预期)，所以热钱的涌入，从另一方面通胀“被加快”

然后，我完全同意你对通胀前期对实体经济的担忧引起人们去投资别的虚拟经济等。
但是，我有一点点和你不同的看法：
1)很明显，我们的上证指数赶不上房价的上涨。
2)房价上存在的利益相应比很多行业都高。
所以，我认为当初的投资热，开发房地产企业热可能一定程度上是因为利润造成的。

我非常同意你对实体经济的担忧....说得不好听的，我国的企业很多都是问题企业，
现在国家一方面城市化，一方面调整经济结构，重组企业和淘汰企业并行，我认为是很好的，但是如果加大决心和力度就更好了。
只有让我国有一个真的好的投资环境和发展势头，我们才会更好，才会真的能完成我们的梦(替代美国)。

我是认为不能期待利率解决中国通胀问题。加息对于通胀的遏制是书本上的政策建议。决策者应该从长期战略上考虑，不能局限于价格因素。
央行通过冲销方式（准备金和央票）来抑制国内流动性增长，从而避免出现通货膨胀与资产价格泡沫。不过这样做的成本还是需要考虑的。

My understanding for your question is fairly simple:

The fact that PBOC is restrained from using interest rate tool kit instead of bank reserve ratio is because:
1.        PBOC's monetary policy is not independent from the country’s FX management. Thus, increasing benchmark interest rate will be discriminated in the current macroeconomic scenario as this regulatory move means both lending rate and deposit rate will have to be increased at the same time: while an escalating lending rate will help to absorb excess liquidity in the system and disincentive banks from lending, a rising deposit will encourage more "hot money" inflows as deposit rate in Chinese banks is normally viewed as the benchmark rate for all other investment instruments in the market. Currently, the Fed is conducting its 2nd QE which is flooding all emerging markets and China, based on its drastic economic performance, will be among the top destinations for short-term carry trade. The government is already trying very hard to keeping those hot money outside the boarder as it seeks to moderate the appreciation pace of RMB. More hot money will only increase the RMB appreciation pressure while offset the effects of monetary policy tightening and further boost assets bubble (or an equity bubble in future?).

2.        Ok, so my first point explained why we should not use interest rate as main policy tool now, while my second point will be on why use reserve ratio. That explanation will be far easier as we all understand, raising reserve ratio can be easily applied to select banks (to those who lent out too much and in the special attention list of PBOC) and can avoid all the potential negative effects from a rising interest rate.

3.        I am not sure whether this problem has something to do with your presumption about “inflation expectation”, but I suspect so as economic question normally has more than one cause (actually I wont be surprised if there are more than 10 theories trying to address the same issue, sometimes they all work out!). But anyway, I still believe the FX issue is the dominant reason behind PBOC’s move lately.


As my PC in the office has difficulty typing Chinese, so sorry I have to reply in Eg. Next time will convert back to Ch. Happy discussion.