经济Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events

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Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events

文献名称	Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events
文献作者	W. Brian Arthur
作者所在单位
文献分类	已发表文献
学科一级分类	经济
学科二级分类	经济思想史
文献摘要	This paper explores the dynamics of allocation under increasing returns in a context where increasing returns arise naturally: agents choosing between technologies competing for adoption. Modern, complex technologies often display increasing returns to adoption in that the more they are adopted, the more experience is gained with them, and the more they are improved.1 When two or more increasing-return technologies 'compete' then, for a 'market' of potential adopters, insignificant events may by chance give one of them an initial advantage in adoptions. This technology may then improve more than the others, so it may appeal to a wider proportion of potential adopters. It may therefore become further adopted and further improved. Thus a technology that by chance gains an early lead in adoption may eventually 'corner the market' of potential adopters, with the other technologies becoming locked out. Of course, under different 'insignificant events' - unexpected successes in the performance of prototypes, whims of early developers, political circumstances - a different technology might achieve sufficient adoption and improvement to come to dominate. Competitions between technologies may have, multiple potential outcomes
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关键字	Competing Technologies,;Increasing Returns,;Lock-In
发表所在刊物（或来源）	The Economic Journal, Vol. 99, No. 394 (Mar., 1989), pp. 116-131
发表时间	Mar., 1989
适用研究领域	经济思想史
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