[下载]IMF2008年十月世界经济展望
分析次贷对世界经济的影响，预测未来经济的增长情况。
| Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Global Economy under Stress Financial System in Crisis Deepening Housing Corrections Overstretched Commodity Markets Have Macroeconomic Policies Been Too Loose? Prospects for a Turnaround Policy Challenges for the Global Economy Appendix 1.1 Assessing and Communicating Risks to the Global Outlook References | |||
| Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives | |||
United States and Canada: Bending but Not Buckling Western Europe: Struggling with Multiple Shocks Advanced Asia: Responding to External Shocks Emerging Asia: Balancing Risks to Growth and Price Stability Latin America and the Caribbean: Navigating a More Perilous Environment Emerging Europe: Prospects for a Soft Landing Commonwealth of Independent States: Managing the Commodity Price Boom Sub-Saharan Africa: A Test of Policy Frameworks Middle East: Overheating Still A Concern References | |||
| Chapter 3. Is Inflation Back? Commodity Prices and Inflation | |||
Surging Commodity Prices: Origins and Prospects Commodity Price Shocks and Inflation Monetary Policy Responses to Commodity Price Shocks Summary and Conclusions Appendix 3.1. Recent Commodity Market Developments Appendix 3.2. Accounting for Food Price Increases, 2006–08 Appendix 3.3. Estimating Inflationary Effects of Commodity Price Shocks References | |||
| Chapter 4. Financial Stress and Economic Downturns | |||
Identifying Episodes of Financial Stress Financial Stress, Economic Slowdown, and Recession Has Financial Innovation Affected the Interplay between Financial Stress and Economic Cycles The Current Financial Crisis in Historical Context Conclusions Appendix 4.1. Data and Methodology References | |||
| Chapter 5. Fiscal Policy as a Countercyclical Tool | |||
Understanding the Fiscal Policy Debate How Has Discretionary Fiscal Policy Typically Responded? Are Fiscal Policy Reactions Different in Emerging and Advanced Economies? The Macroeconomic Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy A Simulation-Based Perspective on Fiscal Stimulus Conclusions and Policy Considerations Appendix 5.1. Data and Empirical Methods References | |||
| Chapter 6. Divergence of Current Account Balances across Emerging Economies | |||
Recent Current Account Patterns in Emerging Economies What Factors Have Contributed to Recent Current Account Patterns Sustainability of Current Account Imbalances Conclusions and Policy Implications Appendix 6.1. Variable Definitions and Data Source Appendix 6.2. Econometric Approach References | |||
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