发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

Key forecasts 4
Monetary & fiscal policy
assumptions 5
Recovery: how strong, how
long? 6
Three steps to sustainability 6
Consensus beating growth? 8
Country comparisons 10
Everyone’s a winner 11
Exit, when and how? 12
Feelin’ a little loose 12
Who said inflation’s dead? 12
The gap’s closing 14
Where liquidity goes 15
Four lines of defence 16
Others will feel the pinch 19
GDP 20
Inflation 21
Industrial production &
unemployment 22
Consumption & saving 23
Investment 24
Trade 25
Exchange rates & interest
rates 26
Country profiles 27
Australia 28
China 30
Hong Kong SAR 32
India 34
Indonesia 36
Japan 38
Korea 40
Malaysia 42
New Zealand 44
Pakistan 46
Philippines 48
Singapore 50
Sri Lanka 52
Taiwan 54
Thailand 56
Vietnam 58
Disclosure appendix 62
Disclaimer 63
Contents