Based on the argument of growth accounting and other determinants, how would you anticipate the potential room for the future growth of China under the new normal steady state? China’s prospect for moderate growth are quite good given the track record of total factor productivity (TFP) growth over the last 20 years. A country’s growth potential is determined in large part by its ability to efficiently combine the factors of production with the highest productivity possible. Economic advancement based on superficial determinants such as increasing the quantity of the factors of production (i.e. increasing the number of physical capital devices and simply increasing the number of years in school), is not sustainable, because it does not address the performance of these factors, the deeper driver of growth. While China’s TFP has consistently lagged behind many Western countries, the growth in China’s TFP has been significant and sustained since Reform and Opening, suggesting that as long as the government continues to invest in policies that increase factor productivity, such as supportive infrastructure for physical capital, quality of education, and other efficiency-increasing investments, reasonable growth is highly probable.
Productivity is the “left over” part of differences in output after accounting for the factors of production If factors of production are not properly measured, so would be the productivity estimates Some problems in the measurement of physical and human capitals k and h Example: when failed to consider the quality of schooling, using the simple number of years would tend to reduce or underestimate the true difference between the rich and poor economies, leading to overestimated effect of productivity on income variations.
Stop Manipulating Bank Earnings With Loan-Loss Reserves, Currency Comptroller Warns Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/30/2012 13:13 -0500 Capital Markets Commercial Real Estate Comptroller of the Currency GAAP Housing Bubble Market Crash non-performing loans None Real estate Reality Readers of Zero Hedge know well that one of the most abhorred (by us) accounting gimmicks employed by banks each and every quarter over the past 3 years to boost their bottom line, is to engage in loan-loss reserve releases: a process which has absolutely no associated cash flow benefit, but merely boosts EPS for GAAP purposes. In some cases, like this quarter's absolutely farcical JPM earnings release, the abuse is beyond the pale, as the offending bank releases reserves even as it reports surging non-performing loans : two processes which in a normal world can not coexist. Yet quarter after quarter banks keep on doing this, and in fact a big part of Q3's to date EPS outperformance is courtesy of financial company "earnings", of which, in turn, loan losses amount to about 50% of the entire blended financials bottom line. Yet while we can rage and warn, nothing usually happens until there is a market crash due to the gross manipulation of reality that such an activity entails. Luckily, this time someone with more clout in the legacy establishment has now stood up to warn about the mounting dangers associated with the relentless abuse of loan-loss reserve releases: none other than the US Comptroller of the Currency. From WSJ : The U.S. could stop banks from boosting their earnings by cutting back on reserves held against future loan losses , a top bank regulator said Monday, arguing that the economy remains too rocky for financial institutions to lower their cushions. Comptroller of the Currency Thomas Curry has been warning for several months about the practice of bank-reserve releases, which occur when banks add less to their loan-loss reserves than they write off for uncollectible loans. The difference has bolstered banking profits in recent quarters. Mr. Curry repeated his criticism in a speech before a group of bank risk managers in Dallas, citing the potential for future losses in residential and commercial real estate. "I remain very concerned that too many institutions are continuing to reduce provisions solely to boost earnings," Mr. Curry said. Yet, sadly, while the US " could " intervene, it won't for the simple reason that everyone in the US is beholden to these same banks whose ongoing fake profitability is critical to the status quo, the government and everyone in it. After all the, everyone has now gone all in on the massive systemic ponzi. And the Currency Comptoller will be the last to dare to pull the plug on what is a black capital hole amounting to trillions and trillions of dollars. " We are ready to take action if and when it is needed ," he said. Regulators are concerned banks will suffer more losses from borrowers who took out home-equity loans from 2004 to 2008 , as the housing bubble grew and then burst, Mr. Curry said. Most of those loans allowed borrowers to make only interest payments for seven to 10 years. When that period ends, some borrowers are unlikely to be able to meet monthly payments that are increased to include principal. And many likely won't be able to refinance. Action is needed. Observe the billions in "profits" JPM alone has made from loan-loss reserve releases (blue bar): Alas, no action will be taken. And it is this hypocrisy that makes a total mockery of all the so-called regulators in the US. Because at least the banks are honest in their ongoing manipulation and fraud: they benefit from it, and why not: after all nobody dares to stop them. It is the regulators whose job is to put an end to this behavior. But they are afraid: for their jobs, for their legacy, for their petty egos. As long as this doesn't change, the US economy, and its capital markets, just continue happily day after day, to the most epic crash every imagined. The good news is that only that terminal event has any hope of changing all these things that we, and even the regulators now, lament. Everything else is hollow rhetoric. Average: 4.882355 Your rating: None Average: 4.9 ( 17 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 10580 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: JPM Beats On Loan Loss Reserve Release Despite Drop In Trading Revenues And NIM, Surge In Non-Performing Loans The 'Real-Thing' Biden vs Ryan VeeP Debate - Live Webcast Are 401(k) Loan Defaults Set To Resurge? Spanish Stocks Plunge Most In 12 Months As Egan-Jones Cuts Spain To CCC+ German President Demands Merkel Explain 'Why Germany Needs To Save
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