“Much of what we experience in life results from a combination of skill and luck.” — From the Introduction The trick, of course, is figuring out just how many of our successes (and failures) can be attributed to each—and how we can learn to tell the difference ahead of time . In most domains of life, skill and luck seem hopelessly entangled. Different levels of skill and varying degrees of good and bad luck are the realities that shape our lives—yet few of us are adept at accurately distinguishing between the two. Imagine what we could accomplish if we were able to tease out these two threads, examine them, and use the resulting knowledge to make better decisions. In this provocative book, Michael Mauboussin helps to untangle these intricate strands to offer the structure needed to analyze the relative importance of skill and luck. He offers concrete suggestions for making these insights work to your advantage. Once we understand the extent to which skill and luck contribute to our achievements, we can learn to deal with them in making decisions. The Success Equation helps us move toward this goal by: • Establishing a foundation so we better understand skill and luck, and can pinpoint where each is most relevant • Helping us develop the analytical tools necessary to understand skill and luck • Offering concrete suggestions about how to take these findings and put them to work Showcasing Mauboussin’s trademark wit, insight, and analytical genius, The Success Equation is a must-read for anyone seeking to make better decisions—in business and in life.
Visualizing The Triumph Of Hope Over Reality Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/05/2013 21:05 -0400 Barclays Monetary Policy Reality Renaissance The Matrix The Federal Reserve's extreme monetary policy has done nothing but repress 'safe' assets to the point of making 'risky' assets relatively cheap. This is of course not the case were you to isolate each risky or safe asset and consider its value standalone. Choosing stocks over bonds because "well, what is the alternative?" is akin to the red-pill/blue-pill choice from The Matrix and the reflationary 'normal' that we are supposed to believe in is what 'apparently' justifies a 1.7x rise (12%!) in multiples since QE4EVA was announced. During that same period, consensus earnings expectations have plunged (merely pushed out one more year for the renaissance) and global trade and growth has collapsed. However, while we have shown many divergences from reality in the past, it is the manic/depressive difference between inflation expectations and stock valuations (implicitly supported by reflation) that is the clearest example of the short-term triumph of hope over reality . The plunge in consensus 2013 earnings since August is stunning (as is the resplendent rise in 2014 expectations)... just one more year.... but that didn't matter as P/E ratios surged... on the back of QE4EVA - though 'cyclically' we appear to be nearing the Central Banker limit for short-term impacts... But this time, the inflationary pull of rising P/E ratios simply does not fit with the deflationary 'pricing' the market assigns to forward inflation expectations... In fact, inflation expectations have now faded all the way back to QE3 levels - which can mean only one thing (for fear of the dreaded deflation)... moar QE... Charts: Barclays, Bloomberg
SIGGRAPH 2007 刚开完，那些COURSE NOTES全文已开始由他们的作者陆续在网上公布了。我整理了一份siggraph 2007 course notes(online)的清单，还缺一些，如有谁能在网上找到相应的在线COURSE NOTES，请通过留言通知我一下，以便及时更新。希望我的劳动能给学习图形学的人们提供一点方便。 siggraph 2006 course notes(online) 官方发布 http://www.siggraph.org/s2006/main.php?f=conferencep=coursess=notes siggraph 2007 course notes(online) 1. Computational Photography http://www.merl.com/people/raskar/photo/ 2. Mesh Parameterization: Theory and Practice http://alice.loria.fr/php/article.php?pub=../publications/papers/2007/SigCourseParam 3. Sketch-Based Interfaces: Techniques and Applications 暂未找到 4. State of the Art in Massive Model Visualization http://www.sci.utah.edu/~abe/massive07/ 5. Introduction to Direct3D 10 http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx?FamilyID=96CD28D5-4C15-475E-A2DC-1D37F67FA6CDdisplaylang=en 6. Anyone Can Cook: Inside Ratatouille's Kitchen http://graphics.pixar.com/indexAuthorShah.html 7. Introduction to SIGGRAPH and Computer Graphics 暂未找到 8. High-Quality Rendering Using Ray Tracing and Photon Mapping http://graphics.ucsd.edu/~henrik/papers/ 9. From "Shrek" to "Shrek the Third": Evolution of CG Characters in the "Shrek" Films 暂未找到 10. An Interactive Introduction to OpenGL Programming 暂未找到 11. Practical Least-Squares for Computer Graphics http://graphics.stanford.edu/~jplewis/lscourse/ 12. "Surf's Up": The Making of an Animated Documentary http://www.185vfx.com/2007/08/surfs-up-course-at-siggraph/ 13. A Gentle Introduction to Bilateral Filtering and Its Applications http://people.csail.mit.edu/sparis/siggraph07_course/ 14. Urban Design and Procedural Modeling 暂未找到 15. Example-Based Texture Synthesis http://www.cs.unc.edu/~kwatra/SIG07_TextureSynthesis/index.htm 16. Practical Global Illumination With Irradiance Caching http://moon.felk.cvut.cz/~xkrivanj/papers/2007-caching_course/index.htm 17. Spatial Augmented Reality: Merging Real and Virtual Worlds http://www.uni-weimar.de/medien/ar/SpatialAR/Siggraph07.htm 18. Résumés and Demo Reels: If Yours Don't Work, Neither Do You! 暂未找到 19. Sorting in Space: Multidimensional, Spatial, and Metric Data Structures for Computer Graphics Applications 暂未找到 20. Visualizing Quaternions 暂未找到 21. Database Techniques With Motion Capture http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~christos/TALKS/SIGGRAPH-07-tutorial/ 22. LucasArts and ILM: A Case Study in Film and Game Convergence 暂未找到 23. Geometric Modeling Based on Polygonal Meshes http://www.agg.ethz.ch/publications/course_notes 24. GPGPU: General-Purpose Computation on Graphics Hardware http://www.ninjaprox.info/index.php?q=d3d3LmdwZ3B1Lm9yZy9zMjAwNy8%3Dhl=1ed 25. Mobile 3D Ecosystem 暂未找到 26. The Morphology of Digital Creatures 暂未找到 27. Anyone Can Make Quality Animated Films! The Eight Basic Steps to Success 暂未找到 28. Advanced Real-Time Rendering in 3D Graphics and Games http://www.valvesoftware.com/publications.html 29. Crossing The Line: Moving From Film to Games (and Possibly Back) 暂未找到 30. Digital Art Techniques 暂未找到 31. Fluid Simulation http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~rbridson/fluidsimulation/ 32. Interaction Tomorrow http://www.interactiontomorrow.org/coursematerial.html 33. Strands and Hair: Modeling, Animation, and Rendering http://gamma.cs.unc.edu/SIG07_HAIR/
March Durable Goods Implode, Plunge -5.7%; CapEx Recovery Put On Indefinite Hiatus Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/24/2013 08:47 -0400 Gross Domestic Product Reality recovery So much for the great American CapEx recovery. Moments ago the Census department released the March Durable Goods report, thanks to which one can lay to rest any hope of a recovery in the US economy, with the headline number printing an absolutely abysmal -5.7%, an epic swing from the +5.7% (revised lower of course to 4.3%) in February, and confirming the recovery is dead and buried. This was the biggest miss in headline data and the biggest drop since August, and the second worst since January 2009. Although we are confident the propaganda spin is just waiting to be unleashed: after all it is possible that March weather was both too hot and too cold, thereby making the number completely irrelevant - after all it is always the inclement weather's fault when the economy does not act as predicted by some economist's DSGE model of reality and stuff. This headline number was obviously a huge miss to expectations of -3%, with the misses spreading to all sub headline categories too: Durables ex-transportation was down -1.4%, on expectations of a 0.5% rise, (previous revised from -0.5% to -1.7%). And so much for CapEx with Cap Goods nondefense ex aircraft up just 0.2% (0.3% exp) with the previous revised from -2.7% to -4.8%, while the nondefense orders shipped ex air missed expectations of a 0.8% rise, printing at 0.3%, and the February data revised from 1.9% to 1.2%. In brief, horrifying economic data however one looks at it, and proof that the great CapEx recovery never existed to begin with. So much for 3% Q1 GDP, which is about to be revised by everyone lower across the board. Finally, if this economic collapse validation doesn't send the SP limit up, nothing will. The only two charts needed to show what is really going on in terms of capex and generally spending on core capex: Orders: Shipments:
Yen Surges As Japan's Deputy PM Says Excessive Yen Gain "Corrected" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/08/2013 20:23 -0400 Bond Green Shoots Japan Nikkei Yen The circus continues. For this evening's entertainment, the countrty Deputy PM Taro Aso explains the "excessive JPY gain has been corrected," upon which USDJPY instantly strengthens 40 pips reversing all the post-US0-close JPY weakness. Of course, the market reaction was evidently enough for him to swallow his words and 'retract' his comments mere moments later. At the same time, the BOJ declares: *BOJ MEMBERS AGREED JAPAN'S ECONOMY STOPPED WEAKENING While their optimism is welcome, facts (as they often do) stand tall in the face of their rhetoric as Japan's Macro index and manufacturing new orders (to name just two recent data points) do not even show second-derivative green shoots. And for the third and final act of this evening's early debacle, 30Y JGB yields have slammed 9bps higher (as JGB Futures prices look set for another halt). The Bottom is in? The Bottom is in? What happens when Aso opens his mouth... ruining the 100 target the world had for 2am... (maybe push it back to 3 or 4am)... and it looks like we are set for another JGB Futures halt as long-dated Japanese bond yields are blowing higher once again... and 20Y even more volatile... and just to add to the fun - SGX entire futures exchange down.... Mini JGB's and Nikkei 225 yet to open on SGX... Average: 4.9 Your rating: None Average: 4.9 ( 10 votes) Tweet - advertisements - Login or register to post comments 10547 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Rajoy Summarizes Overnight (And Recurring) Sentiment: "There Are No Green Shoots, There Is No Spring" 17 Macro Surprises For 2013 Chris Martenson Interviews Mike Shedlock, Discusses Deflation, The Fed, Gold And Other Subjects VIXterminating, Voluelmess Ramp Left To The US Stock Market For Second Day In A Row Japan Megaquake And Tsunami - Gold Mixed As Yen Surges Against All Currencies
Presenting The Fundamental Flaw In The Fed's Thinking Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/20/2012 15:15 -0400 This one simple chart below shows what is possibly the biggest and most fundamental flaw in Bernanke's approach to spurring the economy, which to him, of course, means rising prices of risky assets, aka the stock market. The chart above shows the return of two simple things: the return of 4.25% 30 Year Bond issued November 2010... and the SP. As is vividly shown on the chart, the return of the long-bond is nearly three times greater than that of the broader equity market in 18 short months! And therein, ladies and gentlemen, lies the rub. Recall that Bernanke said something substantively as follows: "When our policy response lowers interest rates on govt bonds, it induces market participants to take more risk. Someone selling their govt bond to us may go out and buy a corp bond, thereby lowering spreads. A bank selling their govt bond to us may go out and make a loan..." There is one problem with this logic: it is dead wrong. Because instead of forcing investors to rush out of the bond market, which potentially has much more upside embedded (the 30 Year is yielding 2.7% right now: this means the actual price of the 30 Year can continue going up and up and up), investors, even those "sophisticated" ones at banks, hedge funds, and prop desks who can trade CDS, IR Swaps, variance swaps, swaptions, and things the retail investor has never heard of, are doing something else, and something much simpler, entirely. They are simply front-running the Fed! The Fed's entire policy of boosting the economy is a failure for many reasons, but the primary purpose embedded therein - to lift stock markets, will forever be subordinated (to use the parlance of our times) to just frontrunning the Fed, which simply means buy whatever the Fed is buy, and sell whatever (if anything) it is selling. In simpler format: Frontrun what the Fed has publicly telegraphed to be doing ... Profit And as long as the Fed continues on the course of LSAP, either unsterilized or sterilized ala Twist, this will continue, and the Fed will continue failing upward. Sadly, this also means that at the end the Fed has only one option: to go Japanese and start buying not only REITs and ETFs, but ultimately individual stocks. At that point the best purchase, however will not be the stock market, but wheelbarrows.
标签: Course经管大学堂：名校名师名课
京公网安备 11010802022788号
论坛法律顾问：王进律师
知识产权保护声明
免责及隐私声明
