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请问无基础MQL4好还是MQL5,现在流行哪个	灌水吧	Turtle.C 2023-7-26	1 278	赵安豆 2024-9-15 08:11:42
外汇K线实用技术：东郭先生之黑狼整理版	量化投资	天蓝蓝a 2013-5-17	83 13960	fantuanxiaot 2015-1-6 13:01:44
经济论坛民间QQ群欢迎外汇的师兄弟们进驻	金融实务版	new2178 2013-3-2	8 1678	new2178 2013-11-14 18:34:11
【独家发布】全球外汇研究报告	行业分析报告	Trac-King 2013-1-16	178 13292	Manstone 2013-9-28 14:22:23
购买外汇	爱问频道	kuaile87 2013-3-28	11 1708	实话实说elm 2013-8-8 09:29:50
外汇的一些基础知识	EViews专版	whtxywhtxywhtxy 2013-5-31	3 2229	chouccy 2013-7-5 14:38:20
中国央行本周净回笼资金350亿三周以来首次净回笼	金融学（理论版）	liangdong1219 2013-5-16	0 872	liangdong1219 2013-5-16 17:37:33
关于银行外汇存贷款等数据的困惑 - [悬赏 15 个论坛币]	数据交流中心	jialin0623 2013-5-7	0 1678	jialin0623 2013-5-7 12:40:14
外汇基本面分析要素总结	金融实务版	fcupid 2013-4-22	0 2119	fcupid 2013-4-22 18:39:25
外汇交易商外汇交易商外汇交易商外汇交易商	真实世界经济学(含财经时事)	zy891115 2013-4-14	1 1978	stcome 2013-4-14 19:59:47
外汇交易商外汇交易商外汇交易商外汇交易商	新手入门区	MY人生 2013-4-14	0 1773	MY人生 2013-4-14 15:38:09
外汇交易商外汇交易商外汇交易商外汇交易商	投行专版	金属制品 2013-4-14	1 1857	枫叶飘红 2013-4-14 12:59:34
砖国家将成立开发银行和外汇储备库规模千亿美元	真实世界经济学(含财经时事)	MichaelDu 2013-3-28	0 1335	MichaelDu 2013-3-28 19:42:06
外汇	论文版	995565875 2013-3-18	2 1754	995565875 2013-3-19 17:16:33

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分享外汇市场前景怎么样？外汇市场公平吗？: ksrtly 2018-4-10 16:48; 去年以来全球金融监管日益严格，欧美等发达国家做出一系列的收紧政策，然而外汇市场并不处于风暴中心，同时因其特殊性，行业的火爆程度依然不减，从今年的财博会上可见一斑。外汇市场“独善其身”并不是偶然。从2014年以来，股市暗渡陈仓伤透人心，房价长得太快上不了车，国伪金融产品也面临着清理整顿。因此外汇行业以其自身的特点和优势，成为这些资金追赶的宠儿，并且发展势头良好，18年超越比特币的发展也未尝不可。外汇行业前景广阔汇市是全世界最大、最公平、最透明的市场！尽管与一些投资市场相比，外汇市场的历史不是最久远的，但我们不能忽视它的广阔前景，如今全球外汇市场的日交易量已经超过6亿美元。而且随着个人收入不断增长，投资渠道的进一步多元化发展，以及出境便利等等条件下，外汇市场已经拥有的庞大的需求群体。外汇行业主要趋势在市场行为的引导下，很多外汇经纪商的行为决策开始以客户需求为中心，寻求更好的报价供给，更好的大规模订单执行，更好的订单完成率等。如在亚洲外汇市场备受欢迎的巨汇ggfx，使用高质数据中心及高端服务器，提供稳定高效的MT4平台交易，市场报价实时更新，99.8%的交易订单完成速度快至0.01秒，出金无延迟地及时到账。这也会成为2018年外汇市场的发展趋势之一。根据预测，全球监管收紧将是2018的重中之重，届时不合规的外汇平台都会被迫退出市场，而巨汇ggfx等拥有全球权威监管的正规外汇经纪商将会获得更多投资者的青睐与信任。; 个人分类: 外汇|0 个评论

分享外汇个人怎么开通账户？外汇交易到哪开户？: 微笑听雨声 2018-4-10 15:59; 外汇开户是所有炒外汇投资者要做的第一步，最重要的就是选择一个正规的外汇平台。外汇投资者选择交易平台就好比求职者选择行业、学生选择专业方向一样，只有选择一个正规可靠的平台开户，才能在未来的交易中收获稳定盈利。那么，外汇在哪里开户比较正规？在哪个平台开户比较好呢？根据笔者近7年的炒汇经验和选择平台的经历来说，最重要的还是选择比较大，并且已经经受市场重重考验的平台。例如巨汇ggfx、嘉盛，这两个平台都比较大牌，资历也比较老，在业内公认是比较正规的外汇交易平台。当然了，大家如果想要更多选择的话，也可以通过下面的几点来选择正规的外汇平台：第一，看平台是否受到FSA、FSP或者NFA这样的监管机构监管，若受到监管，则平台正规。具体可以参考巨汇ggfx的FSP和NFA的全球双重监管资质，监管机构权威、监管力度大，安全方面比较有保障。第二，看平台的稳定性如何，交易是否经常有滑点、延迟、掉线等异常情况，一般正规平台的稳定性都很高，交易非常流畅，这点通过平台的模拟账户就能体验出来。第三，看平台的出入金是否安全、可靠，便捷，如果一个平台总是限制投资者的盈利出金，或者以各种借口延迟出金的话，那么肯定不是正规平台。第三，看平台是否有负面消息的存在，这也就是看平台的市场口碑如何，好的平台大家自然是口口相传的，所以炒外汇想要开设正规安全的外汇账户的话，还是建议去那些知名度高、口碑好的平台。外汇最难的并不是开户，而是选择开户的平台，尤其是要避免在黑平台开户，所以大家在选择外汇平台时一定要谨慎，在正规的平台开户才能放心交易。; 个人分类: 外汇|34 次阅读|0 个评论

分享炒外汇是骗人的吗？炒外汇是不是骗局？: 微笑听雨声 2018-4-9 11:10; 大家同样在外汇市场中进行做多做空操作，结果有的人赚到了钱，有些人却亏了不少钱，而这些亏损的投资者亏钱之后首先想到的是不是自己哪里操作出现了失误，而是这个投资是不是骗人的。炒外汇是骗人的吗？外汇是正规合法的投资，当然不是骗人的。外汇凭借自身简单、灵活、透明、风险可控等优点超越股票、期货和债券等传统市场，成为全球最大、最活跃的投资交易市场。因为市场杜绝人为操控，交易非常透明；且有国际权威机构进行监管，外汇市场和外汇平台的安全性普遍高于其他同类的市场和平台，如巨汇ggfx等正规外汇平台就是受到FSP、NFA的全球监管。炒外汇为什么会亏钱？排除黑平台骗人的因素，一般来说，做任何投资有赚有亏都是正常现象，假如投资者所选择的交易平台也没问题，那么亏钱的原因多半是这几个： 1.逆势交易。趋势这种东西，谁也说不清，除了需要小心谨慎地分析，最重要的是需要顺势交易，见过身边不少亏损的人，他们最普遍的共通点就是逆势操作。 2.冒险加仓。无论是亏损情况下加仓还是盈利情况下加仓，都会增加交易亏损的风险，一不小心，甚至形成重仓操作的局面，因此也建议经验较少的新手投资者，无论是什么情况最好不要加仓。除了以上2个投资者的个人因素，还有可能引起亏损的就是交易平台的稳定性问题，如果平台稳定性很差，交易经常滑点、延迟、卡盘，同样也会造成亏损。巨汇ggfx是目前稳定性最好的外汇交易平台，买卖交易精准稳定至秒速进行，出入金最快能立即到账，交易成本也是非常低的。; 个人分类: 外汇|30 次阅读|0 个评论

分享外汇交易实验个人总结个人如何购外汇外汇交易如何快速入门？: ksrtly 2018-4-8 17:21; 外汇市场每天都有财富故事在上演，开始炒外汇的投资者也越来越多，不过，如果没有过硬的交易技术，即使是在最容易获利的外汇市场依然寸步难行。如果你不想花太多的时间去摸索钻研，也不知道在哪里可以拜得名师，那么可以参考一下小编整理出的快速入门指南。一、辨别趋势多空做交易必须尊重“市场先生”的脾气，所以在进场交易前，投资者应该对行情的基本趋势一个判断，最简单的方式是看指标，资产价格在其上方运行则看多，反之则看空，一但行情在走势之间做出变换，就要适时调整自己的操作思路。二、观察波动强弱每日市场走势的力度都不同，而且会因为消息面等的刺激而随时改变，如果当投资者哪天盘中发现价格出现连续的拉升或者下跌，走势出现非常大的变动，就需要格外留意市场消息面的新变化，顺着行情的趋势去做单。巨汇ggfx的MT4交易平台保持市场信息的实时更新，交易等操作均是秒速完成，方便投资者及时根据变动趋势而做出相应的操作。三、紧抓盘面异动短线交易时，投资者必须盯好盘面，在汇市的1分钟和5分钟图中，有时候会突然出现异常的波动，投资者可视之为异动走势，不管其产生的原因是什么，投资者都应该先行回避，在行情方向明朗后再选择介入。尤其是当异动出现在节假日来临之前，投资者应该尽量回避，不能因一时的冲动而招致亏损。外汇是灵活的交易市场，只要做好入门工作，投资者并不需要投入太多的精力，平时通过手机也能随时捕捉到最佳的入场时机，用极小的成本就能实现优于其他市场的收益。; 个人分类: 外汇|1 次阅读|0 个评论

分享出售贵金属在线喊单系统：中金汇盈--五大派别: 智屋喊单 2015-4-1 17:53; 出售贵金属在线喊单系统：中金汇盈--五大派别一般说来，可以按约定俗成，将技术分析主要分为如下五类：指标派；切线派；形态学派；K线派；波浪派。 1.指标派。指标派要考虑市场行为的各个方面，建立一个数学模型，给出数学上的计算公式，得到一个体现黄金市场的某个方面内在实质的数字。这个数字叫指标值。指标值的具体数值和相互间关系直接反映股市所处的状态，为我们的操作行为提供指导的方向。指标反映的东西大多是从行情报表中直接看不到的。目前，世界上用在市场上的各种名称的技术指标，数不胜数，至少在一千以上。例如，相对强弱指标(RSI)、随机指标(KD指标)、趋向指标(DMI)、平滑异同平均线(MACD)、能量潮(OBV)、心理线、乖离率等。这些都是很著名的技术指标，在股市中长盛不衰。而且，随着时间的推移，新的技术指标还在不断涌现，充实和扩大这个大家族。 2.切线派。切线派是按一定方法和原则在黄金图表上画一些直线，然后根据这些直线的情况推测黄金价格的未来趋势，这些直线就叫切线。切线的作用主要是起支撑和压力的作用。支撑线和压力线往后的延伸位置对价格的趋势起一定的制约作用。一般说来，黄金价格在从下向上抬升的过程中，一触及压力线，甚至远未触及到压力线，就会调头向下；同样，价格从上向下跌的过程中，在支撑线附近就会转头向上。另外，如果触及切线后没有转向，而是继续向上或向下，这就叫突破。突破之后，这条直线仍然有实际作用，只是名称变了。原来的支撑线变成压力线，原来的压力线将变成支撑线。切线派分析市场主要是依据切线的这个特性。切线的画法是最为重要的，画得好坏直接影响预测的结果。目前，画切线的方法有很多种，它们都是人们长期研究之后保留下来的精华。著名的有趋势线、通道线等。此外还有黄金分割线、甘氏线、角度线等。在实际应用中，人们从这些线上获益不少。 3.形态学派。形态学派是根据价格图表中，过去一段时间走过的轨迹的形态来预测黄金价格未来的趋势情况的方法。假设条件1告诉我们，市场的行为包括一切信息。价格走过的形态是市场行为的重要部分，是黄金市场对各种信息感受之后的具体表现，用价格的轨迹或者说是形态来推测黄金价格的将来是很有道理的。从价格轨迹的形态看，我们可以推测出黄金市场处在一个什么样的大的环境之中，由此对我们今后的行为给予一定的指导。著名的形态有M头、W底、头肩顶底等十几种，这些形态同样是人们智慧的结晶。 4.K线派。 K线派的研究手法是侧重若干天K线的组合情况，推测市场多空双方力量的对比，进而判断黄金市场多空双方谁占优势，是暂时的，还是决定性的。单独一天的K线的形态有十几种，若干天K线的组合种类就无法数清了。人们经过不断地总结经验，发现了-些对黄金买卖有指导意义的组合，而且，新的结果正不断地被发现，被运用。K线在东亚地区很流行，广大黄金投资人进入黄金市场后，进行技术分析时往往首先接触K线图。 5.波浪派。波浪理论起源于1978年美国人查尔斯·J·柯林斯发表的专著《波浪理论》。波浪理论的实际发明者和奠基人是艾略特，他在30年代有了波浪理论最初的想法。波浪理论把股价的上下变动和不同时期的持续上涨下降看成是波浪的上下起伏一样。波浪的起伏遵循自然界的规律，按一定之规进行，黄金的价格也就遵循波浪起伏所遵循的规律。简单地说，上升是5浪下跌是3浪。数清楚了各个浪就能准确地预见到，跌势已接近尾声，牛市既将来临，或是牛市已到了强驾之末，熊市将来到。波浪理论较之于别的技术分析流派，最大的区别就是能提前很长的时间预见至W底和M顶。别的流派往往要等到新的趋势已经确立之后才能看到。但是，波浪理论又是公认的最难掌握的技术分析方法。大浪套小浪，浪中有浪，在数浪的时候极容易发生偏差。事情过了以后，回过头来数这些浪，发现均满足波浪理论所陈述的，都能数对。一旦身处在现实，真正能够正确数浪的人是很少的。以上五类技术分析方法是从不同的方面理解和考虑黄金市场。有些有相当坚实的理论基础，有的就没有很明确的理论基础，很难说清楚为什么。它们都有一个共同的特点，那就是都是经过市场的实际战火的考验，最终没有被淘汰而被保留下来的，它们都是我们的前人的经验、智慧的精华。这五类技术分析方法尽管考虑的方式不同，目的是相同的，彼此并不排斥，在使用上相互借鉴。比如，在指标分析时，经常用到切线和形态学派中的一些结论和手法。这五类技术分析方法考虑的方式不同，这样就导致它们在操作指导时，所使用的方式不同，有的注重长线，有的就要短些；有的注重价格的相对位置，有的注重绝对位置；有的注重时间，有的注重价格。不管注重什么，最终殊途同归。只要能有收益，用什么方法是不重要的。出售贵金属黄金白银喊单系统------诚招喊单代理！直播系统是一款为金融行业定制开发的视频聊天直播喊单系统，该系统由我公司独立自主开发，并全权拥有自主知识产权。本系统专业提供股票、期货、白银、外汇、原油等金融产品的在线直播喊单营销服务。公司拥有自己的核心开发团队，研发的直播系统结合聊天室功能，图文直播功能，并结合YY视频进行同步直播喊单，性能优良，技术成熟稳定，经过了严格的市场检验，已为多家金融机构提供了服务。有意者加QQ177858334; 个人分类: 喊单系统|29 次阅读|0 个评论

分享出售贵金属在线喊单系统：--八种常见的见顶信号: 智屋喊单 2015-3-31 18:12; 出售贵金属在线喊单系统：--八种常见的见顶信号 1、MACD死叉为见顶信号：汇价在经过大幅拉升后出现横盘，形成的一个相对高点，投资者尤其是资金量较大的投资者，必须在第一卖点出货或减仓。此时判断第一卖点成立的技巧是"汇价横盘且MACD死叉"，死叉之日便是第一卖点形成之时。首先调整MACD的有关参数：将MACD的快速EMA参数设定为8，将慢速EMA参数设定为13，将DIF参数设定为9。移动平均线参数分别为5、10、30。设定好参数后，便可寻找卖点。 2、KDJ呈现两极形态即见顶：通常，大盘在长时间或者快速单边走势后，出现放量的或者极端反向走势，同时配合经典的技术佐证，如跳空星型大K线周KDJ线的K值到达85以上，是见顶的典型信号。 3、长上影线须多加小心：长上影线是一种明显的见顶信号。 4、高位十字星为风险征兆：当日K线出现十字星或长上影线的倒锤形阳线或阴线时，是卖出货币的关键。日K线出现高位十字星显示多空分歧强烈，局面或将由买方市场转为卖方市场，高位出现十字星犹如开车遇到十字路口的红灯，反映市场将发生转折，为规避风险可出货。汇价大幅上升后，出现带长影线的倒锤形阴线，反映当日抛售者多，空方占优势，若当日成交量很大，更是见顶信号。 5、双头、多头形态避之则吉：当汇价不再形成新的突破，形成第二个头时，应坚决卖出，因为从第一个头到第二个头都是主力派发阶段。M字形是右峰较左峰为低乃为拉高出货形，有时右峰亦可能形成较左峰为高的诱多形再反转下跌更可怕，至于其它头形如头肩顶、三重顶、圆形顶也都一样，只要跌破颈线支撑都得赶紧了结持币，免得亏损扩大。 6、击破重要均线警惕变盘：放量后汇价跌破10日均线且不能恢复，随后5周线也被击穿，应坚决卖出。对于刚被套的人此时退出特别有利。如何确认支撑位在此显得尤为关键。一般来说，10日均线第一天破了之后第二天回拉但是站不上支撑位(如30日均线)，就是破位的确认，回拉的时候就是减仓的时机。如果汇价继续击破30日或60日均线等重要均线指标就要坚决清仓了。此外，随着汇价的下调，逐渐形成了下降通道，日、周均线出现空头排列。如果此后出现反弹，汇价上冲30或60日均线没有站稳，则应坚决卖出。 7、单日"T+0"买卖降低成本：主要是依靠汇价每日的上下波动，利用小幅价差解套。 8、二波弱势反弹出货：开低走低跌破前一波低点时，卖出(跌停价杀出)弱势货币。有实质利空时，开低走低，反弹无法越过开盘价，再反转往下跌破第一波低点时，技术指转弱，就应赶紧市价杀出，若没来得及，也得在第二波反弹再无法越过高点，又反转向下时，当机立断下卖单。出售贵金属黄金白银喊单系统------诚招喊单代理！直播系统是一款为金融行业定制开发的视频聊天直播喊单系统，该系统由我公司独立自主开发，并全权拥有自主知识产权。本系统专业提供股票、期货、白银、外汇、原油等金融产品的在线直播喊单营销服务。公司拥有自己的核心开发团队，研发的直播系统结合聊天室功能，图文直播功能，并结合YY视频进行同步直播喊单，性能优良，技术成熟稳定，经过了严格的市场检验，已为多家金融机构提供了服务。有意者加QQ177858334 电话13153100293; 个人分类: 喊单系统|42 次阅读|0 个评论

分享 2014-7-22粤贵银9995市场分析: btbcbd 2014-7-22 15:56; 2014-7-22 粤贵银 9995 市场分析市场回顾昨天的日线图：开盘价： 4130 ，收盘价： 4142 ，最高价： 4175 ，最低价： 4117 ，涨跌幅度： 12 人民币，最大利润空间： 58 人民币，收出上影线长，下影线短，实体短的纺锤形态阳线。基本面分析：昨日公布的美国 6 月芝加哥联储全国活动指数增长 0.12 ，表明美国经济涨幅大于平均的成长速度，利好美元，利空黄金白银。此外，本周我们的关注要点在于地缘政治，主要在于加沙和乌克兰方面。上周末，以色列扩大在加沙的军事行动，造成 13 名以色列士兵以及约 60 名巴勒斯坦人被杀害，这促使避险情绪升温，贵金属品种稍有上涨。虽然以巴争端早已见怪不怪，但今后贵金属行情还需关注美国务卿克里近期抵达开罗后如何促进双方停火。至于乌克兰方面，美欧以及乌克兰都将矛头指向俄罗斯，认为俄罗斯是这起恶性事件的合谋者，而俄方一直不肯承认，虽普京掌控着乌克兰形势大局，大规模战争的可能性微乎其微，从大环境来看这些军事冲突也不会造成金价的持续上升，但欧盟和美国方面对俄罗斯的制裁力度将可能加重，我们需要关注未来多方达成的协议，密切关注俄罗斯动态。与此同时， 6 月份俄方增持 50 万盎司黄金储备，总规模升至 3520 万盎司，黄金储备的上升也反应出俄方对乌克兰军事行动的精打细算，虽大局在手，但也不乏靠考虑到冲突升级，综合欧美对俄的制裁，可判断俄方经济形势并不乐观，未来金价依然会受到乌克兰局势的刺激而小幅上涨。另一方面，我们于今天上午 6 时得到消息，乌克兰分离势力领导人已将黑匣子交给马来西亚专家。领导人宣布客机坠毁地点方圆 10 千米地区休战，但马来西亚必须与国际民航组织一起分析黑匣子，对于这一消息我们必须重点关注，调查的结果若明确指出俄罗斯是肇事方，则会对贵金属价格造成很大影响。全球最大白银 ETF —— IShares Silver Trust 截至北京时间 7 月 21 日，白银净持仓量不变，保持在 10038.52 吨。全球最大黄金 ETF —— SPDR Gold Trust 截止至北京时间 7 月 22 日，持仓较上日减少 1.8 吨，当前持仓量为 803.34 吨。技术面分析：日线图， 5 日均线先后与 10 日和 20 日均线形成死叉，后价格踩在 5 日均线上获得支撑并小幅向上修正。布林带三轨走平，显示价格处于震荡区间。 MACD 阴柱较长，空头力量稍强。 4 小时图，均线交叉排列，布林带三轨稍微內缩，中轨向上，昨日和今日价格连续两次触碰中轨并获得支撑， MACD 阳柱较短。 1 小时图，均线较差排列，布林带三轨走平， MACD 呈现阴柱量缩，价格处于震荡走势。今日建议：粤贵银在上一波大涨后在黄金分割 80.9 处遇阻回调，又在 61.8 处获得大力支撑，至今仍处于 4240 和 4113 构成的震荡区间之中。短线操作依然是多空转换。策略一：价格上破 4210 ，实体收于 4210 以上做多，止损 4180 ，按照 4225-4262-4335 破位持有。策略二：价格若触碰 4210 后没有成功突破，可轻仓做空，止损 4230 ，按照 4190-4148-4120 破位持有。策略三：价格下破 4120 做空，止损 4145 ，止盈 4070 。以上仅代表个人立场和观点，仅供参考，请投资者带好止损，谨慎交易。交易有风险，操作需谨慎。今日关注： 1． 20 ： 30 美国季调后 CPI 月率 2． 21 ： 00 美国 5 月 FHFA 房价指数月率 3． 22 ： 00 美国 6 月成屋销售总数年华 4． 22 ： 00 美国 7 月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数; 0 个评论

分享提供期货，股票，现货，外盘配资: 旷世期货配资-小 2013-3-13 16:46; 旷世期货合资小朱：提供股票.期货.现货，外盘。股指期货（现货1—2倍）（1—5倍股票）本公司可扩大1-10倍资金（期货.股指）可按天结算，可包月提供无息配资可盈利分成资金雄厚，出金快捷，信誉第一，旷世是你梦想开始的地方（并诚聘居间人) 电话：15967455427 QQ:550360119; 1 次阅读|0 个评论

分享 Currency Bores - What Policymakers Really Mean When They Talk About FX: insight 2013-1-11 15:57; Currency Bores - What Policymakers Really Mean When They Talk About FX Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/10/2013 12:38 -0500 Australia Balance Sheet Recession Bond British Pound Capital Markets Central Banks China CPI Demographics Eurozone Gross Domestic Product Housing Prices Irrational Exuberance Japan Monetary Policy Norway Purchasing Power Real Interest Rates Recession Steven Englander Trade Balance Trade Deficit United Kingdom Authored by Steven Englander of Citi, It is hard to find a policymaker who hasn’t actively tried to talk his currency down . The few who don’t talk, act as if they were intent on driving their currency lower. Citi's Steven Englander argues below that the ‘currency wars’ impact is collective monetary/liquidity easing. Collective easing is not neutral for currencies , the USD and JPY tend to fall when risk appetite grows while other currencies appreciate. Moreover, despite the rhetoric on intervention, we think that direct or indirect intervention is credible only in countries where domestic asset prices are undervalued and CPI/asset price inflation are not issues . In other countries, intervention can boost domestic asset prices and borrowing and create more medium-term economic and asset price risk than conventional currency overvaluation would . So the MoF/BoJ may be credible in their intervention, but countries whose economies and asset markets are performing more favorably have much more to lose from losing control of asset markets. So JPY and, eventually CHF, are likely to fall, but if the RBA or BoC were to engage in active intervention they may find themselves quickly facing unfavorable domestic asset market dynamics. Consider some conventional wisdom on currencies: 1) A weak currency buys you happiness Figure 1 shows real broad effective exchange rates as calculated by the BIS since the beginning of 2000 for selected currencies. If currency weakness were all that it takes to achieve happiness, then the US, UK wand Japan would be very happy places and, Singapore and Australia pretty miserable. This is very basic analysis but it is meant to show that currencies are not all that matters, much as currency strategists would like that to be the case. JPY has depreciated in effective terms, even before the recent bout because major Asian trading partners currency appreciation and Japan low inflation have combined to yield real depreciation. When looking at the correlation of currencies and outcomes, it is important to consider the possibility that the dominant causality is the reverse of conventional wisdom. Economies with weak fundamentals rely on a weak currency to bail themselves out. Economies with strong fundamentals do not need the crutch of a weak currency. So currency weakness may be more a symptom of underlying issues than a cure all for policy mistakes and structural rigidities. AUD is obviously a different kettle of fish. Being lucky, like being born rich, is always the best outcome. AUD, positioned offshore from China and sitting on a pile of commodities, does very well. Being lucky is not a policy option, however. Although one hears frequent complaints about AUD over-valuation, it is hard to argue that the AUD over-valuation makes Australia a less attractive location than the US or Japan. It is also pretty clear that the eurozone is a happier place with the EUR at 1.30 than when it was pushing 1.20, and was even happier when EUR was at 1.40 in early 2011. The reason is that weak currencies do not happen in isolation, and often the accompanying effects in other asset markets and economic activity far outweigh any feeling of well-being that accompanies a weaker currency. 2) A weaker currency improves the trade balance The correlation of currencies and trade performance is also less evident than casual discussion would suggest. The long-term depreciations of USD, GBP and JPY have not done much to improve the trade balance and the Australian and Singapore balances are higher than earlier in the decade. The US improvement is somewhat illusory as much is due to the reduction in income and demand for imports because the US economy has been chronically weak since the crisis began in 2008. Arguing that competitiveness never matters is foolish. However, the view that competitiveness is all that matters seems to be accepted very uncritically, whereas in fact trade patterns respond with long and variable lags to currency moves, and in the mean-time issues such as productivity gains, savings, investment productivity growth, human capital investment, industrial structure, unionization, taxation, competitiveness and regulation seem to matter a lot more for a lot longer. To be clear, if conventionally measured competitiveness was all that mattered, the link between trade and real effective exchange rates would jump out at you. That we are not all driving Rovers made in the UK means that something other than a weak currency matters a lot. 3) The exchange rate reduces imbalances by changing relative prices in international trade... ...so it is all very painless. In fact, import and export elasticities with respect to price are low, but import elasticities with respect to income are high. If you are trying to reduce imbalances by depreciating you have to crush domestic purchasing power, as the Icelanders found out (Figure 3). ISK’s massive 2007 depreciation gave exports a modest boost but eliminated the trade deficit by reducing purchasing power in foreign currency terms so much that imports were too expensive to buy. If there is a real imbalance this is a bullet you have to bite, but becoming poor is the best way of getting rid of a trade deficit and the only way to do it in a hurry, as peripheral Europe is discovering. Although policymakers often make it seem that big, exogenous swings in exchange rates are key drivers of economic outcomes, the opposite is actually true. The reason exchange rates move so much is that they have so little immediate impact on activity, so if a capital outflow creates an imbalance between supply and demand for a currency then the currency has to move a long way to get the trade balance to cover the gap. Conversely, if the currency is being used to stabilize activity, it typically will have to move a long way to generate the desired outcome, assuming nothing else changes. 4) Why do policymakers individually like a weaker currency? Complaining about other countries’ currencies distracts from domestic policy issues that they prefer to avoid confronting. Foreign investors and foreign policymakers don’t vote, and talking about unfair competition is a lot easier than trying to stimulate domestic activity through innovation and structural policies. On the margin, the weaker currency does provide benefit to sectors that are very price sensitive (although we repeat that those effects are much more muted than thought). However, consider that most businesses and individuals go out of their way to avoid being in businesses that are highly price sensitive – in those lines you are likely to be competing against some of the poorest people in the world , and it is hard to undercut them unless you are extremely fortunate. It is far easier to sell high-end, differentiated products, whose buyers are willing to pay a premium – and that is what we aim for, but it means much less price sensitivity in demand for what we produce. 5) Why do policymakers collectively like weaker currencies? Of course all currencies cannot weaken at the same time, but if the fear of being beggared by thy neighbor is rampant, it provides cover for either direct currency market intervention or easy money overall, and is stimulatory. In effect, the Fed has won the currency wars because EM and G10 policymakers globally have used currency war as a cover to intervene, ease policy and augment liquidity . So when everyone fights the currency war we end up with a collective easing of monetary policy , and in some cases, even of fiscal policy. This is the global stimulus US policymakers have been advocating for a long time . The downside is that the biggest winner is the economy with: 1) the most sensitivity to monetary stimulus; 2) the greatest indifference to inflation; and 3) the least CPI sensitivity to a run-up in commodity and other liquidity-sensitive economies. In this respect advanced economies that are services heavy, financially developed and that are well-treated by capital markets may see more upside to a global liquidity run-up. 6) Should policymakers engage in currency wars? It used to be thought that the tradeoff was between currency strength and inflation. A weaker currency gave you more growth and higher inflation, and policymakers would choose the combination that did them the most good. The financial crisis has made clear that the trade-off is between a stronger currency and irrational exuberance in domestic asset markets. Now the policy choice is between a stronger than desired currency and excess stimulus to domestic asset markets. So when policymakers from Canada to Norway to Australia keep policy rates low out of concern over excess appreciation, they have to beg domestic households not to bid up housing prices or borrow too much. This is an important choice. The policy dilemma is whether to keep rates low and risk a balance sheet recession/depression down the road because domestic households did not heed the central bank advice to be prudent in taking on debt and buying assets when real interest rates were low or negative, or take the consequences of tightening and watching your currency strengthen. We have found that balance sheet recessions are not readily solved by cutting interest rates. To their credit, BIS researchers has made the case to be watchful of asset market imbalances for at least a decade, but have yet to provide a working algorithm to define such a situation, essentially leaving policymakers to know it when they see it. Compounding their dilemma is that asset price bubbles are fun while they last, and it is hard to know when domestic asset markets are so far out of line with fundamentals that the risk of a crash is real. 7) Dutch disease Everyone loves domestic manufacturing and there are high school kids who can explain why Dutch disease is terrible (although some probably think it is an STD). Essentially, Dutch Disease is a situation in which a temporary boom in one sector of the economy (i.e. commodities) leads to currency appreciation and the withering of exposed sectors that do not have a similar positive shock. RBA Governor Stevens has pointed out that arguments against shifting resources out of other tradable goods sectors into the resource sector weaken considerably, if there is no expectation that prices or production will collapse,. There may also be a case for fiscal consolidation or establishing a SWF to damp current demand and spread the benefits of the boom more evenly over a period of years, but artificially keeping domestic rates low so that there is a both an internally and externally driven boom is a questionable policy response. From a policy perspective, the question is not which is the best policy under a reasonable baseline, but which policy mistake will be easier to fix if it turns out to go wrong. Despite the focus on the exchange rate, the risk that excess domestic asset price appreciation carries may be the harder to fix – an overvalued exchange can respond within a matter of days to changed circumstances, as we discovered in late 2008. If asset prices and are overvalued and households and businesses have taken out loans that they cannot pay back, it takes a lot longer to get prices and balance sheets back to equilibrium. 8) Why not intervene? There is a Gresham’s Law with respect to intervention, It goes something like this – bad currencies will always end up in reserve portfolios. The reason a currency depreciates is that investors are unwilling to hold it. Absent intervention, it depreciates to the point that local assets become so cheap that investors see value or further limited downside. Typically when we are looking at depreciation of major currencies, that downside is so far below current values that when competitor countries see the depreciation, they intervene to support the weakening currency. Whether intervention is needed in theory depends on whether the depreciation restores perceptions of value sooner than it causes panic among competitors. Empirically the competitiveness panic button is hit well before the valuation induces buying. (I am not mentioning trade adjustment because if that occurred sufficiently quickly, there would be no need for intervention.) So, when reserves are accumulated because of competitive pressure forces countries to buy the USD or EUR, by definition the country is accumulating the currency that no one else wanted. Diversification is an illusion because when you buy a loser currency against your own on Monday, and turn around and try and sell it on Tuesday against a more attractive currency, the loser currency remains in excess supply, and that excess supply exerts downward pressure until we get the panic or (less likely) valuation buttons hit. At the end of the day, the weak currency has to find a price at which public or private investors are willing to hold it reserve manager buying+diversification selling doesn’t remove this excess supply. Almost all the reduction in the USD share in reserve manager portfolios has come because the USD has dropped in value, not because reserve managers have been able to discretely sell USD out of reserve portfolios into private hands. 9) What about verbal intervention? In theory, sterilized intervention may work because it is a concrete indication of policymaker intentions. In current non-crisis conditions, verbal intervention and references to exchange rates in policy statements have temporary currency effects but these seem to fade quickly. The fear among traders is mainly that they trigger stops, rather than signal major risk. However, similar to QE, such verbal interventions have limited impact, but they also have essentially zero cost so they are likely to continue even if the impact fades. 10) Why can’t all CBs follow the SNB lead... ...and draw a credible line in the sand? The answers: 1) it helps a lot if you are facing a risk of deflation so unsterilized intervention does not have the usual inflation risk downside; 2) it helps a lot if the euro zone pulls back from the brink and you are able to unload the bulk of your euro reserves. Had the euro zone crisis intensified, the SNB would have been holding an increasing share of Swiss GDP in a currency that was at risk of falling apart, and the credibility of the intervention would have been in question. Being lucky continues to be important. 11) Why can’t all Finance Ministries follow the MoF lead... ...and push their currencies lower by threatening dire consequences to their central banks if they don’t cooperate? The answers: 1) Deeply embedded deflation again helps reduce the fears that the currency move and promised interventions will produce negative inflation consequences of intervention; 2) Unless you are a G4 country, the CB balance sheet expansion may be accompanied by damage to bond markets from inflation fears. 3) It also helps if your economy has been hollowed out by structural rigidities and demographics Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 1 vote) Tweet Login or register to post comments 3447 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Richard Koo's Latest: "Europe And US Have Learned Nothing From Japan's Lessons And Will Repeat Its Mistakes" Richard Koo's "The World In Balance Sheet Recession" Revised, And The Japanese Electricity Shortfall Quandary Guest Post: The End Of Swiss And Japanese Deflation All Hail Richard Koo's Glorious Keynesian Revolution Why European Bank Stocks May Have At Least 40% More Downside; 个人分类: fx|27 次阅读|0 个评论

分享 FBS外汇：利空不断，欧元再创新低: 热度 1 FBS_forex 2012-5-30 10:25; 基本面分析技术上超卖，基本面信息的不协调，演绎了几个交易日的震荡走势，希腊问题引发的欧债危机令非美货币跌跌不休，没有永远的底部，只有跌破的支撑。西班牙Bankia银行及加泰罗尼亚自治地区的资金困境令市场对西班牙ZF的偿债能力产生疑问，10年期西班牙国债较可比德债收益率差突破500个基点，创出欧元问世以来的新高，同时西班牙10年期国债收益率升至6.5%左右，不断逼近7%的生死警戒线。此前寻求国际援助的希腊、爱尔兰及葡萄牙都是在国债收益率突破7%以后，无法继续在国债市场上实现自我融资，而不得不求助，因而西班牙国债收益率的攀升令人心惊胆战。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)日本利率及外汇研究部门主管Tohru Sasaki表示："由于西班牙在欧元区经济中占据很大的比例，如果该国国债较可比德债收益率差进一步走宽，将对市场产生巨大的负面影响。由于西班牙国债遭遇抛售，引发了市场的风险规避情绪，美元因此表现强劲。" 巴克莱(Barclays)驻东京首席外汇策略师Masafumi Yamamoto表示："尽管对于希腊问题的悲观情绪有所消退，但是市场愈发担心西班牙，市场正在观察西班牙基准国债收益率会否触及7%。" 西太平洋银行(Westpac Banking Corp.)策略师Imre Speizer表示："欧洲的经济正在恶化，有充分理由认为欧元短线或将反弹，但是，在一周或一段时间后，我仍认为欧元将进一步大幅走低。"该行资深货币策略师Sean Callow称，"基于欧元区经济的恶化速度，欧元/美元可能会跌至1.20或1.21水平左右。" 欧元区危机不断延伸，风险担忧情绪令非美货币继续承压下行，其中欧元昨日再创新低1.2462. 技术分析 EURUSD 欧元昨日亚太盘下方1.2510处短暂获得支撑后展开反弹，但至纽约盘开盘前上方始终无力突破1.2573的隔夜尾盘阻力位置，此位置触及前期下降趋势线边缘，在基本面的不利因素引导下续创新低1.2462，今日上方关注1.2520附近的阻力，破败后有望进一步测试1.2420附近的低点支撑，预计今日波幅1.2425-1.2530. GBPUSD 英镑昨日亚太盘小幅回落，下方1.5653短暂支撑后展开反弹，但欧盘开盘后再度遇阻1.5672的隔夜高点后延续下跌，至纽约盘进一步扩大跌幅，最低触及1.5607，下方面临1.5600的整数位关口测试，突破后有望进一步测试1.5580的关键支撑，预计今日波幅1.5575-1.5655 AUDUSD 澳元跟随股市变动反复性较强，昨日欧盘开盘前受到股市提振略有反弹，但上方局限于0.9896的高点位置，欧洲股市转为下跌后澳元冲高回落，底部的小幅反弹有再度停顿的迹象，今日上方继续关注0.9850附近的阻力，汇价保持在其下方有望进一步测试0.9750,0.9700附近的支撑，预计今日波幅0.9855-0.9700; 36 次阅读|1 个评论

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