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悬赏 Maximising resource allocation effectiveness for IT security investments - [!reward_solved!] attachment 求助成功区 duduxiao 2013-9-2 2 1083 duduxiao 2015-9-8 15:35:43
Managing Information Systems Security and Privacy attach_img 管理信息系统 Toyotomi 2013-4-24 3 2551 kychan 2014-1-29 14:41:25
Information Security Governance attach_img 管理信息系统 Toyotomi 2013-4-27 3 2402 khatijah 2014-1-29 14:30:28
Electronic Postage Systems Technology, Security, Economics attach_img 管理信息系统 Toyotomi 2013-5-10 2 1257 olderp 2013-9-20 10:12:55
Certification and Security in Inter-Organizational E-Service attach_img 管理信息系统 Toyotomi 2013-5-21 2 1623 olderp 2013-9-20 09:23:31
Intelligence and Security Informatics attach_img 管理信息系统 Toyotomi 2013-4-28 2 2087 olderp 2013-9-19 08:29:06
Integration of Information for Environmental Security attach_img 管理信息系统 Toyotomi 2013-4-21 1 1278 olderp 2013-8-23 11:56:18
East Asia Forum Quarterly - $9.5的杂志 【40P】Vol.5 No.2 April-June 2013 attach_img 行业分析报告 wlz008 2013-7-3 0 967 wlz008 2013-7-3 19:09:03
求教米什金金融学问题 爱问频道 鲁财加 2013-6-24 1 1688 鲁财加 2013-6-25 11:17:52
悬赏 Why Susie owns Starbucks: The name letter effect in security selection - [!reward_solved!] attachment 求助成功区 winniechansy 2013-6-5 1 4196 bxmzone 2013-6-5 22:51:58
悬赏 a framework for social security analysis - [!reward_solved!] attachment 求助成功区 y454192645 2013-4-30 1 1127 Toyotomi 2013-4-30 17:23:30
Managing Information Risk and the Economics of Security attach_img 管理信息系统 Toyotomi 2013-4-24 0 1345 Toyotomi 2013-4-24 10:06:22
Managing Risk and Information Security Protect to Enable attachment 管理信息系统 Toyotomi 2013-4-23 0 1831 Toyotomi 2013-4-23 10:21:08
悬赏 Discount rate changes and security returns in the U.S., 1962–1991 - [!reward_solved!] attachment 求助成功区 yangnay 2013-4-20 1 887 dreamtree 2013-4-20 08:35:57
悬赏 Aggregate accounting earnings can explain most of security returns - [!reward_solved!] 求助成功区 cuijingcj 2013-4-12 1 1134 jianhongnet 2013-4-12 17:36:41
悬赏 Elsevier+Contemporary lodging security - [悬赏 50 个论坛币] 文献求助专区 husteconyy 2013-1-15 5 902 husteconyy 2013-1-29 19:27:00
悬赏 英文求助 - [!reward_solved!] attachment 求助成功区 记得要忘记1227 2013-1-22 1 771 jigesi 2013-1-22 19:12:24
悬赏 英文求助 - [!reward_solved!] attachment 求助成功区 记得要忘记1227 2013-1-22 1 826 jigesi 2013-1-22 17:59:58
social security reform in china 作者为MIT,LSE等名校教授 attachment 产业经济学 northernsnow 2007-12-3 3 3444 gqun 2012-5-10 19:25:00
[下载]U.S. social security report 2009 attachment 公共经济学 tyn 2009-5-25 5 1980 chenxieqingwu 2010-9-29 17:25:58

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分享 Part 2
accumulation 2016-12-27 19:39
Simulate two security daily returns with stochastic volatility and jumps . Allow for potential correlation of the jumps and have a parameter that can set that correlation to high or low . Calculate the correlation of the two assets and the value at risk for this portfolio . How does correlation change when jump correlation increases? How does value at risk change?
个人分类: 金融工程|0 个评论
分享 【独家发布】【2015新书】Managing online risk : apps, mobile, and social media se ...
kychan 2015-4-20 14:36
【独家发布】【2015新书】Managing online risk : apps, mobile, and social media security https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3673007-1-1.html 声明: 本资源仅供学术研究参考之用,发布者不负任何法律责任,敬请下载者支持购买正版。 提倡免费分享! 我发全部免费的,分文不收 来看看 ... 你也可关注我 https://bbs.pinggu.org/z_guanzhu.php?action=addfuid=3727866 请加入 【KYCHAN文库】 https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=collectionaction=viewctid=2819 【KYCHAN文库】 是kychan贡献上传的大量书籍, 用户免费下载 速度执行:立刻,现在,马上欢迎订阅 想要实时获取免费的书籍,请在我的头像下方点 "加关注" 哟!
个人分类: 【每日精华】|13 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 【独家发布】[Security 2-IN-1书籍]Integrated security systems design I & II
kychan 2015-4-17 18:00
【独家发布】 Integrated security systems design I II https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3668364-1-1.html ①【2007】 Integrated Security Systems Design: Concepts, Specifications, and Implementation ②【2014新书】Integrated security systems design 2nd Edition : a complete reference for building enterprise-wide digital security systems 声明: 本资源仅供学术研究参考之用,发布者不负任何法律责任,敬请下载者支持购买正版。 提倡免费分享! 我发全部免费的,分文不收 来看看 ... 你也可关注我 https://bbs.pinggu.org/z_guanzhu.php?action=addfuid=3727866 请加入 【KYCHAN文库】 https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=collectionaction=viewctid=2819 【KYCHAN文库】 是kychan贡献上传的大量书籍, 用户免费下载 速度执行:立刻,现在,马上欢迎订阅 想要实时获取免费的书籍,请在我的头像下方点 "加关注" 哟!
个人分类: 【每日精华】|17 次阅读|1 个评论
分享 'Military-Style' Raid on California Power Station
insight 2015-4-11 10:34
'Military-Style' Raid on California Power Station 'Military-Style' Raid on California Power Station Spooks U.S. When U.S. officials warn about "attacks" on electric power facilities these days, the first thing that comes to mind is probably a computer hacker trying to shut the lights off in a city with malware. But a more traditional attack on a power station in California has U.S. officials puzzled and worried about the physical security of the the electrical grid--from attackers who come in with guns blazing. Around 1:00 AM on April 16, at least one individual (possibly two) entered two different manholes at the PGE Metcalf power substation, southeast of San Jose, and cut fiber cables in the area around the substation. That knocked out some local 911 services, landline service to the substation, and cell phone service in the area, a senior U.S. intelligence official told Foreign Policy. The intruder(s) then fired more than 100 rounds from what two officials described as a high-powered rifle at several transformers in the facility. Ten transformers were damaged in one area of the facility, and three transformer banks -- or groups of transformers -- were hit in another, according to a PGE spokesman. Cooling oil then leaked from a transformer bank, causing the transformers to overheat and shut down. State regulators urged customers in the area to conserve energy over the following days, but there was no long-term damage reported at the facility and there were no major power outages. There were no injuries reported. That was the good news. The bad news is that officials don't know who the shooter(s) were, and most importantly, whether further attacks are planned. "Initially, the attack was being treated as vandalism and handled by local law enforcement," the senior intelligence official said. "However, investigators have been quoted in the press expressing opinions that there are indications that the timing of the attacks and target selection indicate a higher level of planning and sophistication." The FBI has taken over the case. There appears to have been some initial concern, or at least interest, in the fact that the shooting happened one day after the Boston Marathon bombing. But the FBI has no evidence that the attack is related to terrorism, and it appears to be an isolated incident, said Peter Lee, a spokesman for the FBI field office in San Francisco, which is leading the investigation. Lee said the FBI has "a couple of leads we're still following up on," which he wouldn't discuss in detail. There has not been any published motive or intent for the attack, the intelligence official said, and no one has claimed credit. Local investigators seemed to hit a dead end in June, so they released surveillance footage of the shooting. But that apparently produced no new information. The FBI says there have been no tips from the public about who the shooter might be and what he was doing there. The incident might have stayed a local news story, but this month, Rep. Henry Waxman, the California Democrat and ranking member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, mentioned it at a hearing on regulatory issues. "It is clear that the electric grid is not adequately protected from physical or cyber attacks," Waxman said. He called the shooting at the the San Jose facility "an unprecedented and sophisticated attack on an electric grid substation with military-style weapons. Communications were disrupted. The attack inflicted substantial damage. It took weeks to replace the damaged parts. Under slightly different conditions, there could have been serious power outages or worse." The U.S. official said the incident "did not involve a cyber attack," but that's about all investigators seem to know right now. ATT, which operates the phone network that was affected, has offered a $250,000 reward for information leading to the arrest and conviction of the perpetrator or perpetrators. "These were not amateurs taking potshots," Mark Johnson, a former vice president for transmission operations at PGE, said last month at a conference on grid security held in Philadelphia. "My personal view is that this was a dress rehearsal" for future attacks. At the very least, the attack points to an arguably overlooked physical threat to power facilities at a time when much of the U.S. intelligence community, Congress, and the electrical power industry is focused on the risk of cyber attacks. There has never been a confirmed power outage caused by a cyber attack in the United States. But the Obama administration has sought to promulgate cyber security standards that power facilities could use to minimize the risk of one. At least one senior official thinks the government is focusing too heavily on cyber attacks. Jon Wellinghoff, the chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, said last month that an attack by intruders with guns and rifles could be just as devastating as a cyber attack. A shooter "could get 200 yards away with a .22 rifle and take the whole thing out," Wellinghoff said last month at a conference sponsored by Bloomberg . His proposed defense: A metal sheet that would block the transformer from view. "If you can't see through the fence, you can't figure out where to shoot anymore," Wellinghoff said. Price tag? A "couple hundred bucks." A lot cheaper than the billions the administration has spent in the past four years beefing up cyber security of critical infrastructure in the United States and on government computer networks. "There are ways that a very few number of actors with very rudimentary equipment could take down large portions of our grid," Wellinghoff said. "I don't think we have the level of physical security we need." __________________
个人分类: war|10 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 Palestinians halt security cooperation with Israel after minister's death
912726421 2014-12-11 12:34
Jerusalem (CNN) -- A senior Palestinian Authority official died Wednesday after a confrontation with Israeli troops, prompting President Mahmoud Abbas to halt security coordination with Israel, according to Palestinian officials. Ziyad Abu Ein died after clashes with Israeli soldiers midday Wednesday in the Palestinian village of Turmusaya, which is northeast of the West Bank city of Ramallah, longtime chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erakat said in a statement. Abu Ein -- a minister in Abbas' Fatah party and head of the Committee to Resist the Wall and Settlements -- was there participating in nonviolent demonstrations to mark international Human Rights Day, according to Erakat's statement. There were varying reports of exactly how Abu Ein died, including what role -- if any -- Israeli authorities played in it. Pictures from various news agencies depict an Israeli soldier with his hands to Abu Ein's neck, followed by another showing him on the ground. The official Palestinian news agency WAFA, meanwhile, reported that the Palestinian official lost consciousness after he inhaled tear gas and an Israeli soldier hit him in the chest. Israelis attacked in Tel Aviv, West Bank IDF kills Palestinian in West Bank clash "The Israeli soldiers called Abu Ein by name and seemed to be focused on him," witness Kamal Abu Safaka told CNN. "There was a lot of pushing, kicking and punching by the soldiers. ... When Abu Ein tried to intercede, they hit him on the chest with a rifle butt and grabbed him by the throat and pushed him back and then threw a large amount of tear gas and stun grenades." Dr. Ahmed Bitawi, the director of the Ramallah hospital that inspected Abu Ein's body, said he died from asphyxiation after choking on vomit brought on by tear gas inhalation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a message -- via his special envoy Yitzhak Molcho -- to Palestinian Authority officials telling them that Israel will investigate the death, according to a government statement. "The Prime Minister, who has been holding security consultations throughout the day, pointed to the need to calm the situation and act responsibly," the statement said. The Israeli military said in a statement that the incident happened after its "forces halted the progress of (about 200) rioters into the civilian community of Abed-Ad using riot dispersal means." "The IDF is reviewing the circumstances of the participation of Ziyad Abu Ein and his later death," the Israeli military said, noting an Israeli pathologist will join a group of pathologists from Jordan for an examination. "... Additionally, a proposal has been made to the Palestinians to establish a joint investigation team to review the incident." Jordanian Minister of Information Mohammed Al-Momani said that two forensic doctors were sent to the West Bank "to help in determining the cause of (Abu Ein's) death" in response "to a Palestinian request." Declaring three days of mourning, Abbas slammed Abu Ein's death as an "intolerable barbaric act," according to WAFA. "What happened is a crime by all means, we cannot sit idle and silent (after) this crime," he said later on Palestinian television. "For that, this leadership is meeting now to decide what it wants, and I say honestly all options are open for discussion and for implementation. ... We don't have any other solutions." Hanan Ashrawi, an executive member of the Palestine Liberation Organization, said Abbas also froze security coordination with Israel. Jibril Rajoub, a member of Fatah's central committee, confirmed this development. A meeting of PLO representatives Wednesday night about the day's development's was "heated," Ashrawi said. One of the options discussed at the session was taking the Palestinian case to the U.N. Security Council. There will be another meeting Friday. Ashrawi is among the Palestinians outraged by the minister's death, demanding "an international and impartial investigation." "This is a deliberate and willful act of murder and criminality," she said. CNN's Greg Botelho and Samira Said contributed to this report.
5 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 关于option
hellozcy 2014-2-9 08:00
In-the-money: A call option is in-the-money when its strike price is below the current trading price of the underlying asset. A put option is in-the-money when its strike price is above the current trading price of the underlying asset. In-the-money options are generally more expensive as their premiums consist of significant intrinsic value on the top of their time value. Out of money option: An option without any intrinsic value is an out-of-the-money (OTM) option. A call option is out-of-the-money when the strike price is above the current trading price of the underlying security. Intrinsic value: option value if it expired immediately. Intrinsic call value=max(S-X,0). Intrinsic value 0, then the option is in the money. Speculative Value: Speculative Value=Option Price - Intrinsic Value
21 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 美国的经济情报收集范围有多广泛?
insight 2013-10-22 10:32
NSA Busted Conducting Industrial Espionage In France, Mexico, Brazil, China and All Around the World Submitted by George Washington on 10/21/2013 12:46 -0400 Brazil China Copenhagen Department Of Commerce France Global Economy Japan Mexico national security New York Times Newspaper Saudi Arabia SPY SWIFT Toyota Treasury Department Wall Street Journal in Share 0 U.S. Conducts Industrial Espionage Globally Le Monde has revealed that the NSA gathered more than 70 million French phone calls in a single month . France’s largest English-language newspaper – The Local – reports : Le Monde said the documents gave grounds to think the NSA targeted not only people suspected of being involved in terrorism but also high-profile individuals from the world of business or politics. *** French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault “I am deeply shocked…. It’s incredible that an allied country like the United States at this point goes as far as spying on private communications that have no strategic justification, no justification on the basis of national defence ,” he told journalists in Copenhagen. Der Spiegel notes : The NSA has been systematically eavesdropping on the Mexican government for years. *** In the space of a single year, according to the internal documents, this operation produced 260 classified reports that allowed US politicians to conduct successful talks on political issues and to plan international investments . The NSA was recently revealed to have been spying on Brazil’s largest oil company . Guardian columnist Seumas Milne correctly notes : #NSA - #GCHQ about power not security : hacked # Mexico president for political/ investment edge , leak shows, like #Brazil …. The NSA was also recently busted spying on Chinese technology company Huawei . German companies are concerned that the NSA has conducted espionage in that country. And the leaders of Latin American countries have also expressed disgust at the industrial espionage. The NSA is also spying on the biggest financial payments systems such as VISA and Swift. In a slide leaked by Edward Snowden, “economic” was one of the main justifications for spying. The top U.S. spy’s justification for such financial spying is: “We collect this information for many important reasons: for one, it could provide the United States and our allies early warning of international financial crises which could negatively impact the global economy. It also could provide insight into other countries’ economic policy or behavior which could affect global markets .” (Top financial experts say that the NSA and other intelligence agencies are also using the information to profit from this inside information . And the NSA wants to ramp up its spying on Wall Street … to “protect” it.) The Spying Has Been Going On For Decades It is true that the spying is about power, and not security. Proof here , here and here . But this has actually been going on for decades . It has long been clear that the U.S. spying program is being used for industrial espionage. The New Statesman wrote about it in 1988. Die Zeit in 1999. The New York Times reported in 1995: Each morning, they gave Mickey Kantor, the United States trade representative, and his aides inside information gathered by the Central Intelligence Agency’s Tokyo station and the electronic eavesdropping equipment of the National Security Agency, sifted by C.I.A. analysts in Washington. Mr. Kantor received descriptions of conversations among Japanese bureaucrats and auto executives from Toyota and Nissan who were pressing for a settlement, and read about the competing pressures on Japan’s Trade Minister, Ryutaro Hashimoto. When the negotiations came to a climax in Geneva, the intelligence team was in place at the Intercontinental Hotel, working alongside Mr. Kantor’s negotiators, offering assessments of how far the Japanese side could be pressed. *** Spying on allies for economic advantage is a crucial new assignment for the C.I.A. now that American foreign policy is focused on commercial interests abroad . President Clinton made economic intelligence a high priority of his Administration, specifically information to protect and defend American competitiveness, technology and financial security in a world where an economic crisis can spread across global markets in minutes. *** At the Treasury Department, the trade representative’s office and the Commerce Department, officials say they now receive a torrent of information from the C.I.A. BBC reported in 2000: A report published by the European Parliament in February alleges that Echelon twice helped US companies gain a commercial advantage over European firms . Duncan Campbell, the British intelligence expert and journalist who wrote the report, raises the prospect that hundreds of US Department of Commerce “success stories”, when US companies beat off European and Japanese commercial opposition, could be attributed to the filtering powers of Echelon. *** The European consortium Airbus lost a $6bn contract with Saudi Arabia after NSA found Airbus officials were offering kickbacks to a Saudi official. The paper said the agency “lifted all the faxes and phone-calls between Airbus, the Saudi national airline and the Saudi Government” to gain this information. *** The US firm Raytheon used information picked up from NSA snooping to secure a $1.4bn contract to supply a radar system to Brazil instead of France’s Thomson-CSF. *** Former CIA director James Woolsey , in an article in March for the Wall Street Journal, acknowledged that the US did conduct economic espionage against its European allies , though he did not specify if Echelon was involved. BONUS: Government Has Contemplated Seizing Pension Money for Over a Decade Top Economic Advisers Forecast War and Unrest Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 8 votes)
个人分类: exceptional american|22 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 Lack of Privacy Destroys the Economy
insight 2013-10-2 10:27
Lack of Privacy Destroys the Economy Submitted by George Washington on 10/01/2013 15:54 -0400 Barack Obama Bill Gates Cato Institute Estonia Gross Domestic Product Hong Kong national security Niall Ferguson Steve Jobs The Economist Tyler Durden in Share 1 Edward Snowden said yesterday: The success of economies in developed nations relies increasingly on their creative output, and if that success is to continue we must remember that creativity is the product of curiosity, which in turn is the product of privacy . He’s right. Anonymity and privacy increase innovation. Anyone who has ever played a musical instrument knows that you need time to experiment and try new things in the privacy of your home – or your band’s garage – in order to improve. If every practice was at Carnegie Hall in front of a big crowd, you would be too self-conscious to experiment and try something new. Same with every other field. Think of an artist painting in the middle of a major museum. Or a beginning programmer (think of a young Bill Gates or Steve Jobs) whose code is being livecast all over the Internet. Or a brilliant inventor (such as a leaner Elon Musk) whose first rough sketch is being dissected in real time. As 4Chan’s founder noted : Zuckerberg’s totally wrong on anonymity being total cowardice. Anonymity is authenticity. It allows you to share in a completely unvarnished, raw way,” Poole said, adding that the internet allows people to “reinvent themselves” as if they were moving home or starting a new job. “The cost of failure is really high when you’re contributing as yourself,” he said. Moreover, trust is key for a prosperous economy . It’s hard to trust when your government, your internet service provider and your favorite websites are all spying on you . In addition, the destruction of privacy by the NSA directly harms internet companies, Silicon Valley, California … and the entire U.S. economy (Facebook lost 11 millions users as of April mainly due to privacy concerns … and that was before the Snowden revelations) And as we noted last December: Personal freedom and liberty – and freedom from the arbitrary exercise of government power – are strongly correlated with a healthy economy, but America is descending into tyranny. Authoritarian actions by the government interfere with the free market , and thus harm prosperity. U.S. News and World Report notes : The Fraser Institute’s latest Economic Freedom of the World Annual Report is out, and the news is not good for the United States. Ranked among the five freest countries in the world from 1975 through 2002, the United States has since dropped to 18th place. The Cato institute notes : The United States has plummeted to 18th place in the ranked list, trailing such countries as Estonia, Taiwan, and Qatar. *** Actually, the decline began under President George W. Bush. For 20 years the U.S. had consistently ranked as one of the world’s three freest economies, along with Hong Kong and Singapore. By the end of the Bush presidency, we were barely in the top ten. And, as with so many disastrous legacies of the Bush era, Barack Obama took a bad thing and made it worse. But the American government has shredded the constitution, by … spying on all Americans, and otherwise attacking our freedoms . Indeed, rights won in 1215 – in the Magna Carta – are being repealed . Economic historian Niall Ferguson notes , draconian national security laws are one of the main things undermining the rule of law: We must pose the familiar question about how far our civil liberties have been eroded by the national security state – a process that in fact dates back almost a hundred years to the outbreak of the First World War and the passage of the 1914 Defence of the Realm Act. Recent debates about the protracted detention of terrorist suspects are in no way new. Somehow it’s always a choice between habeas corpus and hundreds of corpses. Of course, many of this decades’ national security measures have not been taken to keep us safe in the “post-9/11 world” … indeed, many of them started before 9/11 . And America has been in a continuous declared state of national emergency since 9/11, and we are in a literally never-ending state of perpetual war. See this , this , this and this . *** So lawlessness infringement of our liberty is destroying our prosperity. Put another way, lack of privacy kills the ability to creatively criticize bad government policy … and to demand enforcement of the rule of law. Free speech and checks and balances on the power of government officials are two of the main elements of justice in any society. And a strong rule of law is – in turn – the main determinant of GDP growth . Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge points out (edited slightly): Though often maligned (typically by those frustrated by an inability to engage in ad hominem attacks), anonymous speech has a long and storied history in the United States . Used by the likes of Mark Twain (aka Samuel Langhorne Clemens) to criticize common ignorance, and perhaps most famously by Alexander Hamilton, James Madison and John Jay (aka publius) to write the Federalist Papers, we think ourselves in good company in using one or another nom de plume. Particularly in light of an emerging trend against vocalizing public dissent in the United States, we believe in the critical importance of anonymity and its role in dissident speech. Like the Economist magazine, we also believe that keeping authorship anonymous moves the focus of discussion to the content of speech and away from the speaker – as it should be. We believe not only that you should be comfortable with anonymous speech in such an environment, but that you should be suspicious of any speech that isn’t. Average: 4.92857 Your rating: None Average: 4.9 ( 14 votes)
个人分类: exceptional american|8 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 Spy Agencies Are Doing WHAT?
insight 2013-9-24 09:51
Spy Agencies Are Doing WHAT? Submitted by George Washington on 09/23/2013 10:32 -0400 Apple FBI Global Economy Israel national security Obama Administration Obamacare President Obama SPY Steve Jobs SWIFT Wall Street Journal in Share 1 Revelations about the breathtaking scope of government spying are coming so fast that it's time for an updated roundup: The government is spying on essentially everything we do . It is not just "metadata" ... although that is enough to destroy your privacy The government has adopted a secret interpretation of the Patriot Act which allows it to pretend that " everything " is relevant ... so it spies on everyone . For example, the NSA "oversight" court believes the mere claim that terrorists use the phone system is enough to show that all phone records are relevant NSA whistleblowers say that the NSA collects all of our conversations word-for-word It's not just the NSA ... Many other agencies, like the FBI and IRS – concerned only with domestic issues - spy on Americans as well. The Drug Enforcement Administration has had direct access to ATT phone records for 25 years The information gained through spying is shared with federal, state and local agencies , and they are using that information to prosecute petty crimes such as drugs and taxes . The agencies are instructed to intentionally "launder" the information gained through spying, i.e. to pretend that they got the information in a more legitimate way ... and to hide that from defense attorneys and judges The Department of Health and Human Services will also have access to vast quantities of sensitive federal data on Americans as part of Obamacare (here's the underlying Government Accountability Office report ) The NSA not only shares our information with other American agencies, it also gives personal, sensitive unfiltered information on Americans to Israel and other foreign nations And it's not only governments. Private A id=_GPLITA_3 title="Click to Continue by Text-Enhance" href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/07/mass-spying-being-used-to-make-some-people-rich.html#" data-mce-href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/07/mass-spying-being-used-to-make-some-people-rich.html#"contractors can also view all of your data (and the government isn’t keeping track of which contractors see your data and which don’t ). And because background checks regarding some contractors are falsified, it is hard to know the types of people that might have your information. Indeed, private contractors are involved in spying on behalf of governments world-wide It's not just your computer and your phone. It is well-documented that the government may be spying on us through cars and buses, streetlights, at airports and on the street, via mobile scanners and drones, through our smart meters , and in many other ways Top counter-terror experts say that the government’s mass spying doesn't keep us safe Indeed, they say that mass spying actually hurts U.S. counter-terror efforts (more here and here ) They say we can, instead, keep everyone safe without violating the Constitution ... more cheaply and efficiently than the current system There is no real oversight by Congress , the courts , or the executive branch of government. And see this and this . Indeed, most Congress members had no idea what the NSA is doing . Even staunch defenders of the NSA - and congress members on the intelligence oversight committees - now say they've been kept in the dark A Federal judge who was on the secret spying court for 3 years says that it's a kangaroo court Even the current judges on the secret spying court now admit that they're out of the loop and powerless to exercise real oversight . When these judges raised concerns about NSA spying, the Justice Department completely ignored them A former U.S. president says that the spying program shows that we no longer have a functioning democracy The chairs of the 9/11 Commission say that NSA spying has gone way too far Top constitutional experts say that Obama and Bush are worse than Nixon ... and the Stasi East Germans While the government initially claimed that mass surveillance on Americans prevented more than 50 terror attacks, the NSA’s deputy director John Inglis walked that position back all the way to saying that – at the most – one (1) plot might have been disrupted by the bulk phone records collection alone. In other words, the NSA can't prove that stopped any terror attacks. The government greatly exaggerated an alleged recent terror plot for political purposes ( and promoted the fearmongering of serial liars ). The argument that recent terror warnings show that NSA spying is necessary is so weak that American counter-terrorism experts have slammed it as "crazy pants" You're much more likely to be killed by brain-eating amoeba , lightning or a toddler than by terrorism. Even President Obama admits that you're much less likely to be killed by terrorists than a car accident . So the government has resorted to lamer and lamer excuses to try to justify mass surveillance Experts say that the spying program is illegal , and is exactly the kind of thing which King George imposed on the American colonists ... which led to the Revolutionary War A Harvard law school professor - and director of theBerkman Center for Internet Society at Harvard University - says : "The NSA has mounted a systematic campaign against the foundations of American power: constitutional checks and balances, technological leadership, and market entrepreneurship . The NSA scandal is no longer about privacy, or a particular violation of constitutional or legislative obligations. The American body politic is suffering a severe case of auto-immune disease: our defense system is attacking other critical systems of our body ". The top counter-terrorism Czar under Clinton and Bush says that revealing NSA spying programs does not harm national security The feds are considering prosecuting the owner of a private email company - who shut down his business rather than turning over records to the NSA - for refusing to fork over the information and keep quiet. This is a little like trying to throw someone in jail because he's died and is no longer paying taxes Whistleblowers on illegal spying have no "legal" way to get the information out Spying started before 9/11 ... and various excuses have been used to spy on Americans over the years Governments and big corporations are doing everything they can to destroy anonymity Mass spying creates an easy mark for hackers . Indeed, the Pentagon now sees the collection of "big data" as a "national security threat" ... but the NSA is the biggest data collector on the planet, and thus provides a tempting mother lode of information for foreign hackers Mass surveillance by the NSA directly harms internet companies, Silicon Valley, California … and the entire U.S. economy . For example, Facebook lost 11 millions users as of April mainly due to privacy concerns (and that was before the Snowden revelations). And see these reports from Boingboing and the Guardian IT and security professionals are quite concerned about government spying Some people make a lot of money off of mass spying. But the government isn't using the spying program to stop the worst types of lawlessness The NSA spying program is unambiguously being used for industrial espionage , by spying on large foreign corporations , and the biggest financial payments systems such as VISA and Swift. Indeed, in a slide leaked by Edward Snowden, "economic" was one of the main justifications for spying The top U.S. spy's justifications for such financial spying is not very reassuring : "We collect this information for many important reasons: for one, it could provide the United States and our allies early warning of international financial crises which could negatively impact the global economy. It also could provide insight into other countries' economic policy or behavior which could affect global markets ." Top financial experts say that the NSA and other intelligence agencies are using the information to profit from this inside information The Wall Street Journal reported that the NSA spies on Americans’ credit card transactions . Many other agencies are doing the same . In fact, virtually all U.S. intelligence agencies – including the CIA and NSA – are going to spy on Americans’ finances . The A id=_GPLITA_5 title="Click to Continue by Text-Enhance" href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/07/mass-spying-being-used-to-make-some-people-rich.html#" data-mce-href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2013/07/mass-spying-being-used-to-make-some-people-rich.html#"IRS will also be spying on Americans’ shopping records, travel, social interactions, health records and files from other government investigators Polls show that the public doesn’t believe the NSA … and thinks that the government has gone way too far in the name of terrorism While leaker Edward Snowden is treated as a traitor by the fatcats and elites, he is considered a hero by the American public . Members of the Executive, Legislative and Judicial branches of government have all praised the debate on spying which Snowden's leaks started The heads of the intelligence services have repeatedly been caught lying about spying. And even liberal publications are starting to say that Obama has been intentionally lying about spying . The government claimed that most spying programs ended in 2011, when - in fact - they were expanded that year Obama says he'll rein in spying ... but his words and deeds indicate that he won't . Indeed, Obama appointed the fox to guard the chicken coop . No wonder only 11% of Americans trust Obama to actually do anything to rein in spying A huge majority of Americans wants the director of intelligence - Clapper - prosecuted for perjury . One of the chairs of the 9/11 Commission agrees While the Obama administration is spying on everyone in the country – it is at the same time the most secretive administration ever ( background ). That’s despite Obama saying he’s running the most transparent administration ever The NSA treats the American people with contempt . For example, Spiegel notes : "The authors of the draw a comparison with "1984," ... revealing the agency's current view of smartphones and their users. "Who knew in 1984 that this would be Big Brother …" the authors ask, in reference to a photo of Apple co-founder Steve Jobs. And commenting on photos of enthusiastic Apple customers and iPhone users, the NSA writes: "… and the zombies would be paying customers ? Worse, the intelligence agencies often view normal, true-blue Americans as potential terrorists (and see this ) A Congressman noted that - even if a mass surveillance program is started for good purposes - it will inevitably turn into a witch hunt There are indications that the spy agencies aren't just passively gathering information, but are actively using it in mischievous ways Surveillance can be used to frame you if someone in government happens to take a dislike to you Government spying has always focused on crushing dissent … not on keeping us safe An NSA whistleblower says that the NSA is spying on – and blackmailing – top government officials and military officers (and see this ) High-level US government officials have warned for 40 years that mass surveillance would lead to tyranny in America A top NSA whistleblower says that the only way to fix things is to fire all of the corrupt government officials who let it happen . As the polls above show, the American public is starting to wake up to that fact Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 34 votes)
个人分类: exceptional american|21 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 NSA Spying Directly Harms Internet Companies, Silicon Valley, California … And
insight 2013-8-1 10:59
NSA Spying Directly Harms Internet Companies, Silicon Valley, California … And the Entire U.S. Economy Submitted by George Washington on 07/31/2013 13:47 -0400 Apple Brazil China European Union fixed France Germany Golden Goose GOOG Google Japan Nancy Pelosi national security New York Times None Obama Administration Securities and Exchange Commission SPY Transparency Twitter United Kingdom Mass surveillance by the NSA may directly harm the bottom of line of Internet companies, Silicon Valley, California … and the entire national economy. Money News points out : The company whose shares you own may be lying to you — while Uncle Sam looks the other way. Let’s step through this. I think you will see the problem. Fact 1: U.S. financial markets are the envy of the world because we have fair disclosure requirements, accounting standards and impartial courts. This is the foundation of shareholder value. The company may lose money, but they at least told you the truth. Fact 2: We now know multiple public companies, including Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), Facebook (FB) and other, gave their user information to NSA. Forget the privacy implications for a minute. Assume for the sake of argument that everything complies with U.S. law. Even if true, the businesses may still be at risk. Fact 3: All these companies operate globally. They get revenue from China, Japan, Russia, Germany, France and everywhere else. Did those governments consent to have their citizens monitored by the NSA? I think we can safely say no. Politicians in Europe are especially outraged. Citizens are angry with the United States and losing faith in American brand names. Foreign companies are already using their non-American status as a competitive advantage. Some plan to redesign networks specifically to bypass U.S. companies. By yielding to the NSA, U.S. companies likely broke laws elsewhere. They could face penalties and lose significant revenue. Right or wrong, their decisions could well have damaged the business. Securities lawyers call this “materially adverse information” and companies are required to disclose it. But they are not. Only chief executives and a handful of technical people know when companies cooperate with the NSA. If the CEO can’t even tell his own board members he has placed the company at risk, you can bet it won’t be in the annual report. The government also gives some executives immunity documents, according to Bloomberg. Immunity is unnecessary unless someone thinks they are breaking the law. So apparently, the regulators who ostensibly protect the public are actively helping the violators. This is a new and different investment landscape. Public companies are hiding important facts that place their investors at risk. If you somehow find out, you will have no recourse because regulators gave the offender a “get out of jail free” card. The regulatory structure that theoretically protects you knowingly facilitates deception that may hurt you, and then silences any witnesses. This strikes to the very heart of the U.S. financial system. Our markets have lost any legitimate claim to “full and fair disclosure.” Every prospectus, quarterly report and news release now includes an unwritten NSA asterisk. Whenever a CEO speaks, we must assume his fingers are crossed. *** Every individual investor or money manager now has a new risk factor to consider. Every disclosure by every company is in doubt. The rule of law that gave us the most-trusted markets in the world may be just an illusion. In a subsequent article, Money News wrote : Executives at publicly traded companies are lying to shareholders and probably their own boards of directors. They are exposing your investments to real, material, hard-dollar losses and not telling you. The government that allegedly protects you, Mr. Small Investor, knows all this and actually encourages more of it. Who lies? Ah, there’s the problem. We don’t know. Some people high in the government know. The CEOs themselves and a few of their tech people know. You and I don’t get to know. We just provide the money. Since we don’t know which CEOs are government-approved liars, the prudent course is to assume all CEOs are government-approved liars. We can no longer give anyone the benefit of the doubt. If you are a money manager with a fiduciary responsibility to your investors, you are hereby on notice. A CEO may sign those Securities and Exchange Commission filings where you get corporate information with his fingers crossed. Your clients pay you to know the facts and make good decisions. You’re losing that ability. For example, consider a certain U.S. telecommunications giant with worldwide operations. It connects American businesses with customers everywhere. Fast-growing emerging markets like Brazil are very important to its future growth. Thanks to data-sharing agreements with various phone providers in Brazil, this company has deep access to local phone calls. One day someone from NSA calls up the CEO and asks to tap into that stream. He says OK, tells his engineers to do it and moves on. A few years later, Edward Snowden informs Brazilian media that U.S. intelligence is capturing these data. They tell the Brazilian public. It is not happy. Nor are its politicians, who are already on edge for entirely unrelated reasons. What would you say are this company’s prospects for future business in Brazil? Your choices are “slim” and “none.” They won’t be the only ones hurt. If the U.S. government won’t identify which American company cheated its Brazilian partners, Brazil will just blame all of them. The company can kiss those growth plans good-bye. This isn’t a fantasy. It is happening right now. The legality of cooperating with the NSA within the United States is irrelevant. Immunity letters in the United States do not protect the company from liability elsewhere. *** Shouldn’t shareholders get to know when their company’s CEO takes these risks? Shouldn’t the directors who hire the CEO have a say in the matter? Yes, they should. We now know that they don’t. The trust that forms the bedrock under U.S. financial markets is crumbling. If we cannot believe CEOs when they swear to tell the truth, if companies can hide material risks, if boards cannot know what the executives they hire are actually doing, any pretense of “fair markets” is gone. When nothing is private, people and businesses soon cease to trust each other. Without trust, modern financial markets cannot function properly. If U.S. disclosure standards are no better than those in the third world, then every domestic stock is overvalued. Our “rule of law” premium is gone. This means a change for stock valuations — and it won’t be bullish. CNN reports : Officials throughout Europe, most notably French President Francois Hollande, said that NSA spying threatens trade talks. *** For the Internet companies named in reports on NSA surveillance, their bottom line is at risk because European markets are crucial for them. It is too early assess the impact on them, but the stakes are clearly huge. For example, Facebook has about 261 million active monthly European users, compared with about 195 million in the U.S. and Canada, and 22% of Apple’s net income came from Europe in the first quarter of 2013. *** In June 2011, Microsoft admitted that the United States could bypass EU privacy regulations to get vast amounts of cloud data from their European customers. Six months later, BAE Systems, based in the United Kingdom, stopped using the company’s cloud services because of this issue. *** The NSA scandal has brought tensions over spying to a boil. German prosecutors may open a criminal investigation into NSA spying. On July 3, Germany’s interior minister said that people should stop using companies like Google and Facebook if they fear the U.S. is intercepting their data. On July 4, the European Parliament condemned spying on Europeans and ordered an investigation into mass surveillance. The same day, Neelie Kroes, the EU’s chief telecom and Internet official, warned of “multi-billion euro consequences for American companies” because of U.S. spying in the cloud. *** Transparency is an important first step. Its absence only exacerbates a trust deficit that companies already had in Europe. And trust is crucial. Google’s chief legal officer recognized this on June 19 when he said, “Our business depends on the trust of our users,” during a Web chat about the NSA scandal. Some companies have been aggressive in trying to disclose more, and others have not. But unless the U.S. government loosens strictures and allows greater disclosure, all U.S. companies are likely to suffer the backlash. *** The Obama administration needs to recognize and mitigate the serious economic risks of spying while trying to rebuild its credibility on Internet freedom. The July 9 hearing of the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board is a start, but much more is needed. More disclosure about the surveillance programs, more oversight, better laws, and a process to work with allied governments to increase privacy protections would be a start. The European customers of Internet companies are not all al Qaeda or criminals, but that is essentially how U.S. surveillance efforts treat them. If this isn’t fixed, this may be the beginning of a very costly battle pitting U.S. surveillance against European business, trade, and human rights. The Atlantic notes : Most communications flow over the Internet and a very large percentage of key Internet infrastructure is in the United States. Thus, foreigners’ communications are much more likely to pass through U.S. facilities even when no U.S. person is a party to a particular message. Think about a foreigner using Gmail, or Facebook, or Twitter — billions of these communications originate elsewhere in the world but pass through, and are stored on, servers located in the U.S. *** Foreigners … comprise a growing majority of any global company’s customers . *** From the perspective of many foreign individuals and governments, global Internet companies headquartered in the U.S. are a security and privacy risk. And that means foreign governments offended by U.S. snooping are already looking for ways to make sure their citizens’ data never reaches the U.S. without privacy concessions. We can see the beginnings of this effort in the statement by the vice president of the European Commission, Viviane Reding, who called in her June 20 op-ed in the New York Times for new EU data protection rules to “ensure that E.U. citizens’ data are transferred to non-European law enforcement authorities only in situations that are well defined, exceptional and subject to judicial review.” While we cheer these limits on government access, the spying scandal also puts the U.S. government and American companies at a disadvantage in ongoing discussions with the EU about upcoming changes to its law enforcement and consumer-privacy-focused data directives, negotiations critical to the Internet industry’s ongoing operations in Europe. Even more troubling, some European activists are calling for data-storage rules to thwart the U.S. government’s surveillance advantage. The best way to keep the American government from snooping is to have foreigners’ data stored locally so that local governments – and not U.S. spy agencies — get to say when and how that data may be used. And that means nations will force U.S.-based Internet giants like Google, Facebook, and Twitter, to store their user data in-country, or will redirect users to domestic businesses that are not so easily bent to the American government’s wishes. So the first unintended consequence of mass NSA surveillance may be to diminish the power and profitability of the U.S. Internet economy. America invented the Internet , and our Internet companies are dominant around the world. The U.S. government, in its rush to spy on everybody, may end up killing our most productive golden goose. San Diego Union-Tribune writes : California and its businesses have a problem. It’s called the National Security Agency. *** The problem for California is not that the feds are collecting all of our communications. It is that the feds are (totally unapologetically) doing the same to foreigners, especially in communications with the U.S. California depends for its livelihood on people overseas — as customers, trade partners, as sources of talent. Our leading industries — shipping, tourism, technology, and entertainment — could not survive, much less prosper, without the trust and goodwill of foreigners . We are home to two of the world’s busiest container ports, and we are a leading exporter of engineering, architectural, design, financial, insurance, legal, and educational services. All of our signature companies — Apple, Google, Facebook, Oracle, Intel, Hewlett-Packard, Chevron, Disney — rely on sales and growth overseas. And our families and workplaces are full of foreigners; more than one in four of us were born abroad, and more than 50 countries have diaspora populations in California of more than 10,000. *** News that our government is collecting our foreign friends’ phone records, emails, video chats, online conversations, photos, and even stored data, tarnishes the California and American brands. *** Will tourists balk at visiting us because they fear U.S. monitoring? Will overseas business owners think twice about trading with us because they fear that their communications might be intercepted and used for commercial gain by American competitors? Most chilling of all: Will foreigners stop using the products and services of California technology and media companies — Facebook, Google, Skype, and Apple among them — that have been accomplices (they say unwillingly) to the federal surveillance? The answer to that last question: Yes. It’s already happening. Asian governments and businesses are now moving their employees and systems off Google’s Gmail and other U.S.-based systems, according to Asian news reports. German prosecutors are investigating some of the American surveillance. The issue is becoming a stumbling block in negotiations with the European Union over a new trade agreement. Technology experts are warning of a big loss of foreign business. John Dvorak, the PCMag.com columnist, wrote recently, “Our companies have billions and billions of dollars in overseas sales and none of the American companies can guarantee security from American spies. Does anyone but me think this is a problem for commerce?” *** It doesn’t help when our own U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein is backing the surveillance without acknowledgment of the huge potential costs to her state. It’s time for her and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who has been nearly as tone-deaf on this issue, to be forcefully reminded that protecting California industry, and the culture of openness and trust that is so vital to it, is at least as important as protecting massive government data-mining. Such reminders should take the force not merely of public statements but of law. California has a robust history of going its own way — on vehicle standards, energy efficiency, immigration, marijuana. Now is the time for another departure — this one on the privacy of communications. *** We need laws, perhaps even a state constitutional amendment, to make plain that California considers the personal data and communications of all people, be they American or foreign, to be private and worthy of protection. And see this . The bigger picture is that a country’s economic health is correlated with a strong rule of law more than any other factor . Yet America has rapidly fallen into a state of lawlessness , where fundamental rights – such as protection against mass spying by the government – have been jettisoned . The government is spying on just about everything we do . Even the government’s attempted denials of this fact confirm it . BONUS: Cheat-Sheet On Spying Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 18 votes)
个人分类: exceptional american|23 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 A Short History Of Currency Swaps (And Why Asset Confiscation Is Inevitable)
insight 2013-5-6 15:46
A Short History Of Currency Swaps (And Why Asset Confiscation Is Inevitable) Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/05/2013 14:55 -0400 Belgium Ben Bernanke Central Banks Creditors default EuroDollar European Central Bank Eurozone Federal Reserve Foreign Central Banks France Germany Guest Post Hungary Investment Grade Italy Lehman Mark To Market Monetary Base national security Purchasing Power Reserve Currency Sovereign Debt Sovereign Risk Sovereign Risk Sovereigns Trade Deficit World Trade Submitted by Martin Sibileau of A View From The Trenches blog , I want to offer today an historical perspective on the favorite liquidity injection tool: Currency swaps. These coordinated interventions are not a solution to the crashes, but their cause, within a game of chicken and egg. But I’ve just given you the conclusion. I need to back it now… To read this article in pdf format, click here: May 5 2013 With equity valuations no longer levitating but in a different, 4th dimension altogether, and credit spreads compressing... Which fiduciary portfolio manager can still afford to hedge? Any price to hedge seems expensive and with no demand, the price of protection falls almost daily. The CDX NA IG20 index (i.e. the investment grade credit default swap index series 20, tracking the credit risk of 125 North American investment grade companies in the credit default swap market) closed the week at 70-71bps. The index was at this level back in the spring of 2005. By the summer of 2007, any credit portfolio manager that would have wanted to cautiously hedge with this index would have seen a further compression of 75% in spreads, completely wiping him/her out. It is in situations like these, when the crash comes, that the proverbial run for liquidity forces central banks to coordinate liquidity injections. However, something tells me that this time, the trick won’t work. In anticipation to the next and perhaps final attempt, I want to offer today an historical perspective on the favorite liquidity injection tool: Currency swaps. These coordinated interventions are not a solution to the crashes, but their cause, within a game of chicken and egg. But I’ve just given you the conclusion. I need to back it now… How it all began Let me clarify: By currency swaps, I refer to a transaction carried out between two central banks. This means that currency swaps cannot be older than the central banks that extend them. On the other hand, foreign exchange swaps between corporations may date back to the late Middle Ages, when trade began to resurface in the Italian cities and the Hansastdte . Having said this, I believe that currency swaps were born in 1922, during the International Monetary Conference that took place in Geneva. This conference marked the beginning of the Gold Exchange Standard, with the goal of stabilizing exchange rates (in terms of gold) back to the pre-World War I. According to Prof. Giovanni B. Pittaluga (Univ. di Genova), there were two key resolutions from the conference, which opened the door to currency swaps. Resolution No. 9 proposed that central banks “… centralise and coordinate the demand for gold, and so avoid those wide fluctuations in the purchasing power of gold which might otherwise result from the simultaneous and competitive efforts of a number of countries to secure metallic reserves… ” Resolution No. 9 also spelled how the cooperation among central banks would work, which “…should embody some means of economizing the use of gold maintaining reserves in the form of foreign balance, such, for example, as the gold exchange standard or an international clearing system… ” In Resolution No. 11, we learn that: “…The convention will thus be based on a gold exchange standard.” (…) “ …A participating country, in addition to any gold reserve held at home, may maintain in any other participating country reserves of approved assets in the form of bank balances, bills, short-term Securities, or other suitable liquid assets …. when progress permits, certain of the participating countries will establish a free market in gold and thus become gold centers ”. Lastly, gold or foreign exchange would back no less than 40% of the monetary base of central banks. With this agreement, the stage was set to manipulate liquidity in a coordinated way to a degree the world had never witnessed before. The reserve multiplier, composed by gold and foreign exchange could be “managed” and through an international clearing system, it could be managed globally. How adjustments worked under the Gold Standard Before 1922, adjustments within the Gold Standard involved the free movement of gold. In the figure below, I show what an adjustment would have looked like, as the United States underwent a balance of trade deficit, for instance: Gold would have left the United States, reducing the asset side of the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. Matching this movement, the monetary base (i.e. US dollars) would have fallen too. The gold would have eventually entered the balance sheet of the Banque of France, which would have issue a corresponding marginal amount of French Francs. It is worth noting that the interest rate, in gold, would have increased in the United States, providing a stabilizing/balancing mechanism, to repatriate the gold that originally left, thanks to arbitraging opportunities. As Brendan Brown (Head of Economic Research at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities International) explained ( here ), with free determination of interest rates and even considerable price fluctuations, agents in this system had the legitimate expectation that key relative prices would return to a “perpetual” level. This expectation provided “…the negative real interest rate which Bernanke so desperately tries to create today with hyped inflation expectations…” There is an excellent work on the mechanics of this adjustment published by Mary Tone Rodgers and Berry K. Wilson, with regards to the Panic of 1907 (see here ). The authors sustain that the gold flows that ensued from Europe into the United States provided the liquidity necessary to mitigate the panic, without the need of intervention. This success in reducing systemic risk was due to the existence of US corporate bonds (mainly from railroads) with coupon and principal payable in gold, in bearer or registered form (at the option of the holder) that facilitated transferability, tradable jointly in the US and European exchanges, and within a payment system operating largely out of reach from banksters outside of the bank clearinghouse systems. The official story is that the system was saved by a $25MM JPM-led pool of liquidity injected to the call loan market. How adjustments worked under the Gold Exchange Standard During the 1920s and particularly with the stock imbalances resulting from World War I, the search for sustainable financing of reparation payments began. Complicating things, the beginning of this decade saw thehyper inflationaryprocesses in Germany and Hungary. By 1924, England and the United States rolled out the Dawes Plan and between 1926 and 1928, the so called Poincaré Stabilization Plan in France. The former got Charles G. Dawes the Nobel Prize Peace, in 1925. As the figure below shows, against a stable stock of gold, fiat currency would be loaned between central banks. In the case of a swap for the Banque de France, US dollars would be available/loaned, which were supposedly backed by gold. The reserve multiplier vs. gold expanded, of course: With these transactions central banks would now be able to influence monetary (i.e. paper) interest rates. The balancing mechanism provided by gold interest rate differentials had been lost. As we saw under the Gold Standard before, an outflow of US dollars would have caused US dollar rates to rise, impacting on the purchasing power of Americans. Now, the reserve multiplier versus gold expanded and the purchasing power of the nation that provided the financing was left untouched. The US dollar would depreciate ( on the margin and ceteris paribus ) against the countriesbenefitingfrom these swaps. Inflation was exported therefore from the issuing nation (USA) to the receiving nations (Europe). The party lasted until 1931, when the collapse of the KreditAnstalt triggered a unanimous wave of deflation. How the perspective changed as the US became a debtor nation Fast forward to 1965, two decades after World War II, and currency swaps are no longer seen as a tool to temporarily “stabilize” the financing of flows, like balance of trade deficits or war reparation payments, but stocks of debt. By 1965, central bankers are already worried with the creation of reserve assets, just like they are today; with the creation of collate ral (see this great post by Zerohedge on the latter). Indeed, 48 years ago, the Group of Ten presented what was called the Ossola Report , after Rinaldo Ossola , chairman of the study group involved in its preparation and also vice-chairman of the Bank of Italy. This report was specifically concerned with the creation of reserve assets. At least back then, gold was still considered to be one of them. In an amazing confession (although the document was initially restricted), the Ossola Group explicitly declared that the problem “… arises from the considered expectation that the future flow of gold into reserves cannot be prudently relied upon to meet all needs for an expansion of reserves associated with a growing volume of world trade and payments and that the contribution of dollar holdings to the growth of reserves seems unlikely to continue as in the past…” Currency swaps were once again considered part of the solution. Under the so called “currency assets”, the swaps were included by the Ossola Group, as a useful tool for the creation of alternative reserves. Three months, during a Hearing before the Subcommittee on National Security and International Operations, William McChesney Martin, Jr., at that time Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, acknowledged a much greater role to currency swaps, in maintaining the role of the US dollar as the global reserve currency. In McChesney Martin’s words: “…Under the swap agreements, both the System (i.e. Federal Reserve System) and its partners make drawings only for the purpose of counteracting the effects on exchange markets and reserve positions of temporary or transitional fluctuations in payments flows. About half of the drawings ever made by the System, and most of the drawings made by foreign central banks, have been repaid within three months; nearly 90 per cent of the recent drawings made by the System and 100 per cent of the drawings made by foreign central banks have been repaid within six months. In any event, no drawing is permitted to remain outstanding for more than twelve months. This policy ensures that drawings will be made, either by the System or by a foreign central, bank, only for temporary purposes and not for the purpose of financing a persistent payments deficit. In all swap arrangements both parties are fully protected from the danger of exchange-rate fluctuations. If a foreign central bank draws dollars, its obligation to repay dollars would not be altered if in the meantime its currency were devalued. Moreover, the drawings are exchanges of currencies rather than credits. For instance, if, say, the National Bank of Belgium draws dollars, the System receives the equivalent in Belgian francs; and since the National Bank of Belgium has to make repayment in dollars, the System is at all times protected from any possibility of loss. Obviously, the same protection is given to foreign central banks whenever the System draws a foreign currency. The interest rates for drawings are identical for both parties. Hence, until one party disburses the currency drawn, there is no net interest burden for either party. Amounts drawn and actually disbursed incur an interest cost, needless to say; the interest charge is generally close to the U.S. Treasury bill rate…” My graph below should help visualize the mechanism: Essentially, with these currency swaps, foreign central banks that during the war had shifted their gold to the USA, became middlemen of a product that was a first-degree derivative of the US dollar, and a second-degree derivative of gold. On September 24th 1965, someone called this Ponzi scheme out. In an article published by Le Monde, Jacques Rueff publicly responded to this nonsense, under the hilarious title “ Des plans d’irrigation pendant le déluge ” (i.e. Irrigation plans during the flood). He minced no words and wrote: “… C’est un euphénisme inacceptable et une scandaleuse hyprocrisie que de qualifier de création de “liquidités internationales” les multiples operations, tells que (currency) swaps…” “C’est commetre une fraude de meme nature que de présenter comme la consequence d’une insuffiscance générale de liquidités l’insufficance des moyens dont disposent les Etats-Unis et l’Anglaterre pour le réglement de leur déficit exterieur” My translation: “…It is an unacceptable euphemism and an outrageous hypocrisy to qualify as creation of “international liquidity” multiple transactions, like (currency) swaps…”…“…In the same fashion, it is a fraud to present as the consequence of a general lack of liquidity, the lack of means available to the USA and England to settle their external deficits …” Comparing the USA and England to underdeveloped countries, Rueff added that these also lack external resources, but those that are needed cannot be provided to them but by credit operations, rather than the superstition of a monetary invention disguised as necessary and in the general interest of the public (i.e. rest of the world). With impressive prediction, Rueff warned that the problem would present itself in all its greatness, the day these two countries decide to recover their financial independence by reimbursing with their dangerous liabilities (i.e. currencies). That day, said Rueff, international coordination would be necessary and legitimate. But such coordination would not revolve around the creation of alternative instruments of reserve, demanded by a starving-for-liquidity world. That day would be a day of liquidation, where debtors and creditors would be equally interested and would share the common responsibility of the lightness with which they jointly accepted the monetary difficulties that are present ….Sadly, Rueff’s call could not sound more familiar to the observer in 2013… How adjustments work today, without currency swaps Until the end of the Gold Exchange Standard, even if the reserve multiplier suppressed the value of gold (like today), gold was still the ultimate reserve and had in itself no counterparty risk. After August 15th, 1971, when Nixon issued the Executive Order 11615 (watch announcement here ), the ultimate reserve was simply cash (i.e. US dollars) or its counterpart, US Treasuries. And unlike gold, these reserve assets could be created or destroyed ex-nihilo. When they are re-hypothecated, leverage grows unlimited and when their value falls, valuations dive unstoppable. Because (and unlike in 1907) the transmission channel for these reserves today is the banking system, when they become scarce, counterparty risk morphs into systemic risk. When Rueff discussed currency swaps, he had imbalances in mind. In the 21st century, we no longer have time to worry about these superfluous things. Balance of trade deficits? Current account deficits? Fiscal deficits? In the 21st century, we cannot afford to see the big picture. We can only see the “here and now”. Therefore, when we talk about currency swaps, the only thing we have in mind is counterparty risk within the financial system. The thermometer that measures such risk is the Eurodollar swap basis, shown below (source: Bloomberg). As the US dollar became the carry currency, the cost of accessing to it became the cornerstone of value for the rest of the asset spectrum, widely known as “risk”. In the chat below, we can see two big gaps in the Eurodollar swap basis. The one in 2008 corresponds to the Lehman event. The one in 2011 corresponds to the banking crisis in the Eurozone that was contained with a reduction in the cost of USDEUR swaps and with the Long-Term Refinancing Operations done by the European Central Bank. In both events, the financial system was in danger and banks were forced to delever. How would the adjustment process have worked, had there not been currency swaps to extend? In the figure below, I explain the adjustment process, in the absence of a currency swap. As we see in step 1, given the default risk of sovereign debt held by Eurozone banks, capital leaves the Eurozone, appreciating the US dollar. We see loan loss reserves increase (bringing the aggregate value of assets and equity down). As these banks have liabilities in US dollars and take deposits in Euros, this mismatch and the devaluation of the Euro deteriorates their risk profile Eurozone banks are forced to sell US dollar loans, shown on step 2. As they sell them below par, the banks have to book losses. The non-Eurozone banks that purchase these loans cannot book immediate gains. We live in a fiat currency world, and banks simply let their loans amortize; there’s no mark to market. With these purchases, capital re-enters the Eurozone, depreciating the US dollar. In the end, there is no credit crunch. As long as this process is left to the market to work itself out smoothly, borrowers don’t suffer, because ownership of the loans is simply transferred. This is neutral to sovereign risk, but going forward, if the sovereigns don’t improve their risk profile, lending capacity will be constrained. In the end, an adjustment takes place in (a) the foreign exchange market, (b) the value of the bank capital of Eurozone banks, and (c) the amount of capital being transferred from outside the Eurozone into the Eurozone. How adjustments work today, with currency swaps Let’s now proceed to examine the adjustment –or better said, lack thereof- in the presence of currency swaps. The adjustment is delayed. In the figure below, we can see that the Fed intervenes indirectly, lending to Eurozone banks through the ECB. Capital does not leave the US. Dollars are printed instead and the US dollar depreciates. On November 30th, of 2011, upon the Fed’s announcement at 8am, the Euro gained two cents vs. the US dollar. As no capital is transferred, no further savings are required to sustain the Eurozone and the misallocation of resources continues, because no loans are sold. This is bullish of sovereign risk. The Fed becomes a creditor of the Eurozone. If systemic risk deteriorates in the Eurozone, the Fed is forced to first keep reducing the cost of the swaps and later to roll them indefinitely, as long as there is a European Central Bank as a counterparty for the Fed , to avoid an increase in interest rates in the US dollar funding market. But if the Euro zone broke up, there would not be any “safe” counterparty –at least in the short term- for the Fed to lend US dollars to. In the presence of a European central bank, the swaps would be bullish for gold. In the absence of one, the difficulty in establishing swap lines would temporarily be very bearish for gold (and the rest of the asset spectrum). Final words Over almost a century, we have witnessed the slow and progressive destruction of the best global mechanism available to cooperate in the creation and allocation of resources. This process began with the loss of the ability to address flow imbalances (i.e. savings, trade). After the World Wars, it became clear that we had also lost the ability to address stock imbalances, and by 1971 we ensured that any price flexibility left to reset the system in the face of an adjustment would be wiped out too. This occurred in two steps: First at a global level, with the irredeemability of gold: The world could no longer devalue. Second, at a local and inter-temporal level, with zero interest rates: Countries can no longer produce consumption adjustments. From this moment, adjustments can only make way through a growing series of global systemic risk events with increasingly relevant consequences. Swaps, as a tool, will no longer be able to face the upcoming challenges. When this fact finally sets in, governments will be forced to resort directly to basic asset confiscation. Average: 4.78261 Your rating: None Average: 4.8 ( 23 votes)
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分享 The Main Driver of GDP Growth: A Strong Rule of Law
insight 2012-11-18 11:04
The Main Driver of GDP Growth: A Strong Rule of Law Submitted by George Washington on 07/30/2012 15:39 -0500 China Corruption Gambling Germany Global Economy Gross Domestic Product Hong Kong LIBOR national security Niall Ferguson Transparency United Kingdom World Bank Economist Woody Brock says that a nation's GDP growth is based mainly on whether or not it follows the rule of law. Economist and investment adviser John Mauldin notes : I had dinner with Dr. Woody Brock this evening in Rockport. We were discussing this issue and he mentioned that he had done a study based on analysis by an institution that looks at all sorts of “fuzzy” data, like how easy it is to start a business in a country, corporate taxes and business structures, levels of free trade and free markets, and the legal system. It turned out that the trait that was most positively correlated with GDP growth was strength of the rule of law . It is also one of the major factors thatNiall Ferguson cites in his book Civilization as a reason for the ascendency of the West in the last 500 years, and a factor that helps explain why China is rising again as it emerges from chaos. One of the very real problems we face is the growing feeling that the system is rigged against regular people in favor of “the bankers” or the 1%. And if we are honest with ourselves, we have to admit there is reason for that feeling. Things like LIBOR are structured with a very real potential for manipulation. When the facts come out, there is just one more reason not to trust the system. And if there is no trust, there is no system . Dr. Brock is not alone. Economists have thoroughly documented that failure to enforce the rule of law leads to a loss of trust ... which destroys economies. This is true whether it is in the West, in Nigeria or any other country. We're Number ... What? Economic historian Niall Ferguson notes : The World Economic Forum’s annual Global Competitiveness Index and, in particular, the Executive Opinion Survey on which it’s partly based ... includes 15 measures of the rule of law, ranging from the protection of private property rights to the policing of corruption and the control of organised crime. It’s an astonishing yet scarcely acknowledged fact that on no fewer than 15 out of 15, the United States now fares markedly worse than Hong Kong . In the Heritage Foundation’s Freedom Index, too, the U.S. ranks 21st in the world in terms of freedom from corruption, a considerable distance behind Hong Kong and Singapore . Perhaps the most compelling evidence of all comes from the World Bank’s Indicators on World Governance, which suggest that, since 1996, the United States has suffered a decline in the quality of its governance in three different dimensions: government effectiveness, regulatory quality and the control of corruption . Compared with Germany or Hong Kong, the U.S. is manifestly slipping behind . Indeed - as we've extensively documented - the rule of law is now as weak in the U.S. and UK as many countries which we would consider "rogue nations". See this , this , this , this , this , this , this , this , this , this and this . This is a sudden change. As famed Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto notes : In a few short decades the West undercut 150 years of legal reforms that made the global economy possible. How Did We Slip So Fast? Of course, the repeal of the basic laws which enforced the rule of law among financial players is a part of the problem. Virtually everyone - other than those currently working for the big banks or on their payroll - is calling for reinstatement of the separation between banks and speculative gambling. Free market libertarians - like everyone else - are demanding prosecution of criminal fraud using basic fraud laws. Yet the government has made it official policy not to prosecute fraud . People have lost trust in the system, because government corruption is as widespread as Wall Street corruption ... and those in power in D.C. have the same sociopathic traits as those they supposedly regulate on Wall Street. And as Professor Ferguson notes , draconian national security laws are one of the main things undermining the rule of law: We must pose the familiar question about how far our civil liberties have been eroded by the national security state – a process that in fact dates back almost a hundred years to the outbreak of the First World War and the passage of the 1914 Defence of the Realm Act. Recent debates about the protracted detention of terrorist suspects are in no way new. Somehow it’s always a choice between habeas corpus and hundreds of corpses. Of course, many of this decades' national security measures have not been taken to keep us safe in the "post-9/11 world": many of them started before 9/11 . And America has been in a continuous declared state of national emergency since 9/11, and we are in a literally never-ending state of perpetual war. See this , this , this and this . In fact, government has blown terrorism fears way out of proportion for political purposes, and "national security" powers have been used in many ways to exempt big Wall Street players from the rule of law rather than to do anything to protect us. Is it any wonder that we're still in an economic crisis? Average: 4.55 Your rating: None Average: 4.6 ( 20 votes) Tweet George Washington's blog Login or register to post comments 7499 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Niall Ferguson On China's Gold And The "Tremendous Flux In International Order" Niall "Hit The Road Barack" Ferguson Responds To The "Liberal Blogosphere" The Hoarding Continues: China Purchases A Record 100 Tons Of Gold In April From Hong Kong The Two Year Anniversary Of "China's Ghost Cities" Epic Keynesian Fail Guest Post: It's A Matter Of Trust - Part 1
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分享 US Totalitarian State Wins After All: Obama Reinstates NDAA Military Detention P
insight 2012-9-19 20:56
US Totalitarian State Wins After All: Obama Reinstates NDAA Military Detention Provision Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/18/2012 13:23 -0400 Barack Obama FBI First Amendment Freedom of Information Act Middle East national intelligence national security New York City New York Times Obama Administration President Obama White House Just over a week ago, we wrote of the challenge to Obama's NDAA totalitarian bill. Hope remained that Chris Hedges' view of the indefinite detention as "unforgivable, unconstitutional, and exceedingly dangerous" would bolster judgment. However, as Russia Today reports , a lone appeals judge bowed down to the Obama administration late Monday and reauthorized the White House's ability to indefinitely detain American citizens without charge or due process . On Monday, the US Justice Department asked for an emergency stay on the previous Chris Hedges'-driven order, and hours later US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit Judge Raymond Lohier agreed to intervene and place a hold on the injunction. The stay will remain in effect until at least September 28, when a three-judge appeals court panel is expected to begin addressing the issue. It would appear the total fascist takeover of Amerika is drawing nearer by the day. Some background : What is ironic, is that in the ongoing absolute farce that is the theatrical presidential debate, there hasn't been one word uttered discussing precisely the kind of creeping totalitarian control, and Orwellian loss of constitutional rights, that the biparty-supported NDAA would have demanded out of the US republic. Why? Chris Hedges said it best: The oddest part of this legislation is that the FBI, the CIA, the director of national intelligence, the Pentagon and the attorney general didn’t support it . FBI Director Robert Mueller said he feared the bill would actually impede the bureau’s ability to investigate terrorism because it would be harder to win cooperation from suspects held by the military. “The possibility looms that we will lose opportunities to obtain cooperation from the persons in the past that we’ve been fairly successful in gaining,” he told Congress. But it passed anyway. And I suspect it passed because the corporations, seeing the unrest in the streets, knowing that things are about to get much worse, worrying that the Occupy movement will expand, do not trust the police to protect them. They want to be able to call in the Army. And now they can . Via RT, Obama wins right to indefinitely detain Americans under NDAA : A lone appeals judge bowed down to the Obama administration late Monday and reauthorized the White House’s ability to indefinitely detain American citizens without charge or due process. Last week, a federal judge ruled that an temporary injunction on section 1021 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012 must be made permanent, essentially barring the White House from ever enforcing a clause in the NDAA that can let them put any US citizen behind bars indefinitely over mere allegations of terrorist associations. On Monday, the US Justice Department asked for an emergency stay on that order, and hours later US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit Judge Raymond Lohier agreed to intervene and place a hold on the injunction. The stay will remain in effect until at least September 28 , when a three-judge appeals court panel is expected to begin addressing the issue On December 31, 2011, US President Barack Obama signed the NDAA into law, even though he insisted on accompanying that authorization with a statement explaining his hesitance to essentially eliminate habeas corpus for the American people. “The fact that I support this bill as a whole does not mean I agree with everything in it,” President Obama wrote. “ In particular, I have signed this bill despite having serious reservations with certain provisions that regulate the detention, interrogation, and prosecution of suspected terrorists .” A lawsuit against the administration was filed shortly thereafter on behalf of Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Chris Hedges and others, and Judge Forrest agreed with them in district court last week after months of debate. With the stay issued on Monday night, however, that justice’s decision has been destroyed. With only Judge Lohier’s single ruling on Monday, the federal government has been once again granted the go ahead to imprison any person "who was part of or substantially supported al-Qaeda, the Taliban or associated forces that are engaged in hostilities against the United States or its coalition partners" until a poorly defined deadline described as merely “the end of the hostilities.” The ruling comes despite Judge Forrest's earlier decision that the NDAA fails to “pass constitutional muster” and that the legislation contained elements that had a "chilling impact on First Amendment rights” Because alleged terrorists are so broadly defined as to include anyone with simple associations with enemy forces, some members of the press have feared that simply speaking with adversaries of the state can land them behind bars. "First Amendment rights are guaranteed by the Constitution and cannot be legislated away," Judge Forrest wrote last week. " This Court rejects the Government's suggestion that American citizens can be placed in military detention indefinitely, for acts they could not predict might subject them to detention ." Bruce Afran, a co-counsel representing the plaintiffs in the case Hedges v Obama, said Monday that he suspects the White House has been relentless in this case because they are already employing the NDAA to imprison Americans, or plan to shortly. “A Department of Homeland Security bulletin was issued Friday claiming that the riots are likely to come to the US and saying that DHS is looking for the Islamic leaders of these likely riots,” Afran told Hedges for a blogpost published this week. “It is my view that this is why the government wants to reopen the NDAA — so it has a tool to round up would-be Islamic protesters before they can launch any protest, violent or otherwise. Right now there are no legal tools to arrest would-be protesters. The NDAA would give the government such power. Since the request to vacate the injunction only comes about on the day of the riots, and following the DHS bulletin, it seems to me that the two are connected . The government wants to reopen the NDAA injunction so that they can use it to block protests.” Within only hours of Afran’s statement being made public, demonstrators in New York City waged a day of protests in order to commemorate the one-year anniversary of the Occupy Wall Street movement. Although it is not believed that the NDAA was used to justify any arrests, more than 180 political protesters were detained by the NYPD over the course of the day’s actions. One week earlier, the results of a Freedom of Information Act request filed by the American Civil Liberties Union confirmed that the FBI has been monitoring Occupy protests in at least one instance, but the bureau would not give further details, citing that decision is "in the interest of national defense or foreign policy." Josh Gerstein, a reporter with Politico, reported on the stay late Monday and acknowledged that both Forrest and Lohier were appointed to the court by President Obama . As Chris Hedges said so well last week as he sued Barack Obama: This demented “war on terror” is as undefined and vague as such a conflict is in any totalitarian state. Dissent is increasingly equated in this country with treason. Enemies supposedly lurk in every organization that does not chant the patriotic mantras provided to it by the state. And this bill feeds a mounting state paranoia. It expands our permanent war to every spot on the globe. It erases fundamental constitutional liberties. It means we can no longer use the word “democracy” to describe our political system. The supine and gutless Democratic Party, which would have feigned outrage if George W. Bush had put this into law, appears willing, once again, to grant Obama a pass. But I won’t. What he has done is unforgivable, unconstitutional and exceedingly dangerous. The threat and reach of al-Qaida—which I spent a year covering for The New York Times in Europe and the Middle East—are marginal, despite the attacks of 9/11. The terrorist group poses no existential threat to the nation. It has been so disrupted and broken that it can barely function. Osama bin Laden was gunned down by commandos and his body dumped into the sea. Even the Pentagon says the organization is crippled. So why, a decade after the start of the so-called war on terror, do these draconian measures need to be implemented? Why do U.S. citizens now need to be specifically singled out for military detention and denial of due process when under the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force the president can apparently find the legal cover to serve as judge, jury and executioner to assassinate U.S. citizens, as he did in the killing of the cleric Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen? Why is this bill necessary when the government routinely ignores our Fifth Amendment rights—“No person shall be deprived of life without due process of law”—as well as our First Amendment right of free speech? How much more power do they need to fight “terrorism”? Fear is the psychological weapon of choice for totalitarian systems of power. Make the people afraid. Get them to surrender their rights in the name of national security. And then finish off the few who aren’t afraid enough. If this law is not revoked we will be no different from any sordid military dictatorship. Its implementation will be a huge leap forward for the corporate oligarchs who plan to continue to plunder the nation and use state and military security to cow the population into submission . Average: 4.97778 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 45 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 22164 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: US Totalitarianism Loses Major Battle As Judge Permanently Blocks NDAA's Military Detention Provision Are People Being Thrown In Psychiatric Wards For Their Political Views? Guest Post: Former Marine Arrested For Patriotic Posts On Facebook U.S. Government Planned Indefinite Detention of Citizens and Other "Post-9/11 Realities" LONG BEFORE 9/11 Is Nigel Farage Bailing Out The EU One Fine At A Time?
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