Regression versus correlation All readers will be aware of the notion and definition of correlation. The correlation between two variables measures the degree of linear association between them. If it is stated that y and x are correlated, it means that y and x are being treated in a completely symmetrical way. Thus, it is not implied that changes in x cause changes in y, or indeed that changes in y cause changes in x. Rather, it is simply stated that there is evidence for a linear relationship between the two variables, and that movements in the two are on average related to an extent given by the correlation coefficient. In regression, the dependent variable (y) and the independent variable(s) (xs) are treated very differently. The y variable is assumed to be random or ‘stochastic’ in some way, i.e. to have a probability distribution. The x variables are, however, assumed to have fixed (‘non-stochastic’) values in repeated samples.1 Regression as a tool is more flexible and more powerful than correlation.
The fundamental errors occur to Sichuan Province as the yearbook reports the exact same numbers on the urban employed persons and the total investment in fixed assets, which in any means and by any sense should not be be same. This might occur due to complete negligence and reckless absent-mindness among bureaucrats. Moreover, due to the extra duplicate numbers, the other numbers after that column is completely messed up. For instance, the budget revenue is a few times higher than the budget outlays, which theoretically is very nice. However, artificial adjustments for the numbers only create utopian dreams that can not stand a chance to be reality. Thirdly, the average wage among the urban employed are not correct as the numbers may indeed reflect the amount of disposable income among them, which often add other sources of income to their wages. The problem here is that there are limited ways to figure out what those numbers really mean. For the number of average wage among the urban employed, I personally offer a fix by recommending the use of the annual yearbook of sichuan province.
Look at what's been uncovered lately : Morally and financially bankrupt western governments have resorted to direct confiscation of people's bank accounts. They have used their tax services to bully political opposition groups. They have used their intelligence services to surveil their own citizens and press. They have completely destroyed any vestiges of the free market. They have insidiously pillaged people's savings through inflation. They have indebted future generations who will not be born for decades. They have manipulated the price of money, thus creating massive distortions and bubbles across ALL financial markets. The list of egregious offenses by these governments reads like a modern day version of the Declaration of Independence, in which Thomas Jefferson so eloquently lists the British King's "long train of abuses", including: He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance. He has obstructed the Administration of Justice He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments Sound familiar? We've been talking about solutions in our daily letters and premium publications for several years. And it makes a LOT of sense to consider holding precious metals overseas, establishing a bank account in a stable foreign country, shipping your retirement account abroad, etc. But if you really want to declare your own independence and take back your personal sovereignty, sometimes this means getting out of dodge. Because if history is any indicator, it's only going to get worse. This is just the beginning. History shows that desperate, insolvent nations almost INVARIABLY resort to vain attempts at despotic control-- capital controls, wage and price controls, border controls, people controls. And the worse things get, the more destructive the tactics become. It really makes a lot of sense to have a place to go. Or at least, to KNOW where you and your family would go if you ever felt urgency need to leave town. Candidly, this is much better approach than waiting around for Revolution 2.0 to begin. If you really want to help, you're going to be in a much better position to do so from overseas, with your family and savings in tact. The world is a big place, and there are a lot of great options, including Chile. It would be prudent to start thinking about these options now... because the time to start researching isn't while you're packing your suitcase. Average: 3.285715 Your rating: None Average: 3.3 ( 14 votes) Tweet - advertisements - Login or register to post comments 5176 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Ron Paul: "It's Going to Get Much, Much Worse" The Only 2011 Forecast With A Bizarro Chance Of Getting It All Correct Plaza Accord 2.0: Is It Coming? Is It Here? Guest Post: If The US Goes, Won't The Rest Of The World Be Even Worse? Guest Post: Are There Any Currencies Backed By Gold?
Just Two 'Recession' Indicators Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2013 12:14 -0400 David Rosenberg Gluskin Sheff Personal Income Recession Rosenberg Monday's income and spending (and implicitly 'saving') data provided plenty of fodder at the headline level for any and every opinion. We explained in great detail just how weak the data really was ( here and here ). But the following two charts suggest that any optimism of organic consumption-led exuberance is completely misplaced. Retail sales of clothing is growing at the slowest pace since 2010; but while major store sales are about to drop negative YoY for the first time in over 3 years, the utter collapse in general merchandise sales is worse that at the peak of the last recession at -5% . It seems tough to see how a nation with an economy built on 70% consumption is not in a recessionary environment. And while this alone is a dismal signal for the discretionary upside of the US economy/consumer; as Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg points out real personal income net of transfer receipts plunged at a stunning 5.8% annual rate in Q1 . The other seven times we have seen such a collapse, the economy was either in recession of just coming out of one . But apart from that, everything is fine... Retail Sales collapsing... and absent the might of the US deficit, real personal income is also collapsing... Charts: Bloomberg and Gluskin Sheff Average: 4.75 Your rating: None Average: 4.8 ( 12 votes)
Americans Aged 18-29 Have A More Favorable Response To Socialism Than To Capitalism Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/01/2012 21:33 -0400 In the prior post, we showed a presentation that looked at America from the perspective of a corporation and how it would be completely unsustainable. Luckily, there is little probability that America will ever have anything to do with S-Corp status, and far more likely end up as an agrarian Kolhoz. The reason: based on a Pew survey of America's youth, or those aged 18-29, more have a positive view response toward Socialism than they do toward Capitalism. We will leave it at that. Socialism: 49% Positive / 43% Negative: And Capitalism: 46% Positive / 47% Negative: Average: 4.2 Your rating: None Average: 4.2 ( 15 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 14196 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: America's Demographic Cliff: The Real Issue In The Coming, And All Future Presidential Elections Guest Post: Ignorance Is Bliss; So Go Back To Sleep Guest Post: The Politics Of "Consensus" Is The Politics Of Failure USA, Inc. - Part 2: If America Were A Corporation, It Would Be Broke-er What Is Capitalism?
Guest Post: Let's Talk About Facts, Not Fear Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2012 13:19 -0400 Via Simon Black of SovereignMan blog , Let’s step away from the noise for a moment and look at the big picture. This isn’t about doom and gloom, or fear, but objective facts. Undoubtedly, the Western hierarchy dominated by the United States is in a completely unsustainable situation. Across the West, national governments have obligations they simply cannot meet—both to their citizens and their creditors. In the UK , national government borrowing is already 22% higher than at this same point last year, a record year for borrowing. Meanwhile, the UK’s budget deficit for August hit a record high. In France , the new government of Francois Hollande passed a ‘historic’ and ‘austere’ budget that is still posting a deficit of 3% of GDP. That’s including a 75% tax on incomes exceeding one million euros. In Japan , the government is mulling legislation that will fund 40% of the budget with ‘deficit-financing’ bonds. In the United States , the government recently hit $16 trillion in debt about six weeks ago, after reaching the $15 trillion mark last November. It took 200 years to accumulate the first trillion in debt and 286 days to accumulate the most recent trillion. Each of these countries has a debt level that exceeds 90% of GDP– the historic point of no return . More importantly, each of these countries also has to borrow money simply to pay interest on money they’ve already borrowed. This is important because it makes the problems multiple. At the beginning of the 1780s, the French monarchy was spending around 30% of tax revenue to service its debt. Eight years later when the revolution began, they were spending 62%. The next 26-years in France were filled with internal civil war , external war with Austria and Prussia, hyperinflation, crime, social unrest, and Robespierre’s genocidal dictatorship. In the 19th century, the Ottoman Empire faced an even steeper financial decline . In just 11-years, the Ottoman central government went from spending 17% of its tax revenue on interest payments to spending over 52% of its tax revenue on interest payments. Then came default, in just eleven years. In the US, debt service is also rising. According to the Government Accountability Office’s figures, the US government was spending 9% of revenue to service the debt in 2002. Throughout most of the last decade, in fact, the US government spent roughly 9% of its tax revenue on debt service. But in 2009, the figure hit 9.75%, then 10.5% in 2010, then 11.5% in 2011. For the fiscal year that just closed on September 30, the Bureau of Public Debt reported cumulative interest expense of $375.8 billion on income of $2.45 trillion. This is a rate of 15.3% . See the trend? But it’s not just debt burdens that are problematic. ‘Rich’ countries in the West are also rapidly debasing their currencies, spawning tomes of regulatory impediments, restricting the freedoms of their citizens, aggressively expanding the powers of the state, and engaging in absurd military folly from Libya to the South China Sea. Once again, this is not the first time history has seen such conditions . In our own lifetimes, we’ve seen the collapse of the Soviet Empire, the tragi-comical hyperinflation in Zimbabwe, and the unraveling of Argentina’s millennial crisis. Plus we can study what happened when empires from the past collapsed. The conditions are nearly identical. Is our civilization so different that we are immune to the consequences? Probably not. And the cycle that has befallen so many great powers before us– decline, collapse, turmoil, and reset– will likely happen in our time too . But it’s not the end of the world. Not by a long shot. It’s a complete reshuffling of the deck . A brand new game with brand new rules. And the old way of doing things (like printing money backed by nothing) will be resigned to history’s waste bin. One of the things that we see frequently in history is that this transition occurs gradually, then very rapidly. Think about the Soviet Union, which you may recall. One day, they were the greatest threat to the planet. The next day, the wall came down. It happened so quickly. It’s like what Hemingway said about bankruptcy– it happens slowly at first, then all at once. Unfortunately we don’t know where we are along this path . And we won’t know until we’re over the cliff on the way down. Everything will feel normal until then. Argentina’s millennial crisis is a great example of this. Argentines woke up in December 2001 and everything still felt normal. Within a few weeks, they had defaulted on their debt, the currency collapsed, and people were out in the streets doing battle with the police. But since we don’t know precisely when things may happen, it’s a sharp idea to take responsible action that makes sense no matter what , even if all of the world’s problems are miraculously solved. Things like: - Owning gold and silver (and storing it abroad) - Acquiring agricultural property overseas. - Holding savings in a strong, stable foreign bank - Looking at healthy economies for top quality investment and business opportunities - Improving tax efficiency and asset protection with proper foreign structures - Developing relationships with like-minded people - Learning valuable skills - Traveling a bit and exploring potential relocation options - Increasing your digital privacy - Considering dual residency and nationality options All of these steps make sense no matter what happens . Yet, should the thesis hold, and we indeed find ourselves on the precipice, then you and your family will be in the best possible position. And that too is a fact. Average: 3.72414 Your rating: None Average: 3.7 ( 29 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 19318 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Sicily Is San Bernardino: With First Italian Region On Verge Of Default, Montius Pilate Washes His Hands Guest Post: US Citizens Pay Attention To This The Spain Curve Inversion In All Its Gravitational Glory Guest Post: Why You Always Want Physical Everything Guest Post: Five Things I’ve Learned On The Ground In Portugal
US Treasury Admits It Conducted A Circular Ponzi Scheme For Years Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/17/2012 09:29 -0400 Nationalization Tim Geithner While one may wonder about the implications of the just announced "accelerated windown" of the GSEs, predicated in no small part by the surge in animosity between Tim Geithner and the FHFA's Ed DeMarco, there is one aspect of the announcement that is completely and utterly unambigious: as part of its justification to demand faster liquidation of Fannie and Freddie's "investment portfolio" Tim Geithner gave the following argument : This will help achieve several important objectives, including... Ending the circular practice of the Treasury advancing funds to the GSEs simply to pay dividends back to Treasury In other words not some fringe blog, not some "partisan" media outlet, not some morally conflicted whistleblowing former employee seeking immunity, but the US Trasury itself just admitted it had been engaged in circular check kiting scheme, which essentially has all the components of a Ponzi scheme in it, ever since the nationalization (about which there is no now doubt and which means the GSE's $6 trillion in debt is now fully on the Treasury's balance sheet) of Fannie and Freddie in 2008. Transfer one more conspiracy theory into the conspiracy fact bin. Average: 4.875 Your rating: None Average: 4.9 ( 24 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 8503 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Crony Socialism Strikes Back: Geithner Retaliates Against DeMarco; Accelerates Wind Down Of GSE Treasury Backing Geithner To DeMarco: "I Do Not Believe Is The Best Decision For The Country" Bank Of America Has Lost Money Trading On Only Three Days In 2012 Guest Post: TBTF Banks Laughing All The Way Home Thanks To HARP Presenting The Shocking Source Of US Treasury Demand In The Past Year
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