(CNN) -- Indonesia's top rescue official says authorities believe the missing AirAsia jet is likely at the bottom of the sea, based on radar data from the plane's last contact. "(Because) the coordinate that was given to us and the evolution from the calculation point of the flight track is at sea, our early conjecture is that the plane is in the bottom of the sea," Bambang Sulistyo, head of Indonesia's national search and rescue agency, told reporters Monday. But searchers still don't know where the plane is, he said, and may need help from other countries for help with an underwater search. The search for AirAsia Flight QZ8501 resumed on Monday, a day after the commercial jet disappeared in Indonesian airspace with 162 people aboard. Ships, planes and helicopters are looking for the missing aircraft, Indonesian authorities said. It's unclear if weather played a role in the aircraft's disappearance, but rescuers say it could be a factor that influences how quickly they find the plane. AirAsia flight goes missing Plane was on common route AirAsia pilot requested to change route Large waves and clouds hampered the search for the plane on Sunday, the agency said. By Monday morning, weather in the area appeared to be clearing up, CNN International meteorologist Tom Sater said. Authorities say they're combing a "very broad search area." AirAsia says air traffic controllers lost contact with the aircraft at 7:24 a.m. Sunday Singapore time (6:24 a.m. in Indonesia). The missing plane, flying from the Indonesian city of Surabaya to Singapore, went missing as it flew over the Java Sea between the islands of Belitung and Borneo -- a heavily traveled shipping channel with shallow waters, according to Indonesian authorities, who are leading the search and rescue operations. Before the plane lost contact with air traffic controllers, one of the pilots asked to fly at a higher altitude because of bad weather , officials said. AirAsia statement on missing airliner In addition to Indonesia's teams, several other countries have joined the hunt for the missing plane. A C-130 plane from Singapore has been participating in the search, and the country's military says it's sending two more ships to the search area. Malaysia's transportation minister said his country has deployed three vessels and three aircraft to assist in the search. And the Royal Australian Air Force said Monday that it was deploying a patrol plane to help. And Indonesia has reached out to the United Kingdom, France and the United States for help with sonar technology that may be needed for an underwater search, Sulistyo told reporters Monday. Now that a day has passed since the plane went missing, investigators should have more data to help them find it, said Peter Goelz, former managing director of the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board. "They've had a full 24 hours now to gather all of the available radar data from all of the available sources," he said. "They should be able to put that together, along with any satellite data, and have a more precise location on where to target their search." Waiting and weeping After hours of waiting in anguish for any word about the passengers aboard the missing plane, several dozen of their family members met with airport and airline officials in a closed-door briefing Monday at the airport in Surabaya. As they waited for news before the briefing, some took cell phone pictures of a flight manifest posted on a wall. The black-and-white papers showed every passenger's name and seat number, but not their fate. Others simply sat and dabbed tears from their eyes. "Our concern right now is for the relatives and the next of kin," AirAsia CEO Tony Fernandes said during a news conference in Surabaya. He confirmed that storm clouds caused the pilot to ask for a change in flight plan, but added, "We don't want to speculate whether weather was a factor. We really don't know." Once the aircraft is found, there will be a proper investigation, Fernandes said. Of the people on board the Airbus A320-200, 155 are Indonesian, three are South Korean, one is British, one is French, one is Malaysian and one is Singaporean, the airline said. Eighteen children, including one infant, are among the passengers, the carrier said. Seven of the people on board are crew members. Families of AirAsia flight passengers given support through the 'nightmare' Questions over pilots' communications Flight 8501 "was requesting deviation due to en route weather before communication with the aircraft was lost," the airline said. The flight's captain asked permission to climb to a higher altitude, the Indonesian Transportation Ministry's acting director general for air transportation affairs, Djoko Murdjatmojo, said, according to the national news agency. MH370 and AirAsia very different incidents Social media reacts to missing flight What is a black box anyway? According to flight tracking websites, almost the entire flight path of the plane was over the sea. What role did weather play? CNN aviation analyst Mary Schiavo said that if there was an onboard emergency, the pilots should have issued a mayday call or a pan-pan call. "Mayday means you're immediately in danger of losing the flight; pan-pan means that it is urgent but that you can continue the flight and request an alternate route or an alternate airport," said Schiavo, a former inspector general for the U.S. Department of Transportation. "It's disconcerting in that the standard procedures for an emergency don't seem to have been deployed," she said. But Alan Diehl, a former Air Force and NTSB accident investigator, said pilots don't always make mayday calls in an emergency. "You know that the controllers can't really help you," he told CNN. "You and your co-pilot are going to have to solve this." It's too soon to know what happened to the missing plane, he said. Details released so far show some similarities, Diehl said, with an Air Algerie flight that disintegrated and crashed in July after changing its flight path because of bad weather. But there's also a chance that the AirAsia flight didn't crash after losing contact with air traffic control, he said. The Airbus A320 is equipped with a ditching switch, Diehl said, that essentially turns the plane's fuselage into a boat. "If they got the aircraft down on the water safely," he said, "it should be floating." 'Very good' safety reputation As word spread of the missing plane, the airline changed the color of its logo on its website and social media accounts from red to gray. Indonesia's President Joko Widodo said his nation was "praying for the safety" of those on board. Pope Francis also prayed for the missing, according to Vatican Radio. AirAsia is a Malaysia-based airline that is popular in the region as a budget carrier. It travels to about 100 destinations, with affiliate companies in several Asian countries. The missing plane is operated by AirAsia's Indonesian affiliate, in which the Malaysian company holds a 48.9% stake, according to its website. AirAsia has a "very good" reputation for safety, CNN aviation correspondent Richard Quest said. Flight 8501's captain has a total of 20,537 flying hours, with 6,100 of them with AirAsia Indonesia on the Airbus A320, the airline said. The first officer has a total of 2,275 flying hours, AirAsia said. The plane's last scheduled maintenance was on November 16, it said. The French Foreign Ministry said the first officer is the French citizen who is on the plane. A state-run company in Indonesia that manages airports identified the first officer as Remi Emmanuel Plesel. Airbus said the plane had "accumulated approximately 23,000 flight hours in some 13,600 flights." The aircraft manufacturer said it would provide full assistance to authorities in charge of investigating the missing plane. The loss of contact with the AirAsia plane comes nearly 10 months after the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, which dropped off radar over Southeast Asia on March 8 with 239 people on board. The Malaysia Airlines plane, a Boeing 777-200ER, lost contact with air traffic control over the South China Sea between Malaysia and Vietnam. Searchers have yet to find any debris from Flight 370, which officials believe crashed in the southern Indian Ocean after veering dramatically off course. But some aviation experts don't think the search for Flight 8501 will be as grueling as the search for MH370. "We are not talking about the deep Indian Ocean here," Quest said. "We are talking about congested airspace around Southeast Asia. There will be much better radar coverage. There's certainly better air traffic control coverage."
(CNN) -- The United Kingdom will deploy hundreds of troops to Iraq in the coming year to train Iraqi and Kurdish forces -- the country's latest contribution to the fight against ISIS -- British Defense Secretary Michael Fallon told The Telegraph newspaper . The British have participated in a multinational airstrike campaign against ISIS in Iraq for months, but sending troops to train Iraqis and Kurds increases Britain's military involvement there. The United Kingdom hasn't had a significant ground troop presence in Iraq since 2011 , the same year the United States withdrew its forces following a 2003 invasion to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. British troops will begin training Iraqi and Kurdish forces in January, Fallon told the Telegraph for a story published Saturday. The number of troops hasn't been finalized, "but we are talking very low hundreds," Fallon told the Telegraph. "Our role now, apart from the airstrikes, is increasingly going to be on training," Fallon said. The British Ministry of Defense told CNN on Saturday that Fallon's comments reported by the Telegraph were accurate, and that details about he deployment still were being determined. ISIS: Sex slaves are OK The United States has hundreds of troops already in Iraq, training, advising and assisting Iraqi and Kurdish forces. In November, President Barack Obama said he was planning to send up to an additional 1,500 troops for that purpose. In October, the United States had more than 1,400 troops in Iraq, in addition to hundreds more aboard ships and in nearby countries who were helping to carry out airstrikes in Iraq. The Iraqi military and Kurdish militias have been battling ISIS, the militant group that calls itself the "Islamic State." The Sunni Muslim extremist group captured portions of Syria and Iraq this year in its bid to establish what it says is an independent Islamic nation. ISIS shoots down Iraqi helicopter, killing 2, official says ISIS fighters shot down an Iraqi army helicopter in the north-central Iraqi city of Samarra this week, killing two pilots, a military command officer told CNN on Saturday. The incident happened Friday afternoon in southern Samarra, about 80 miles (129 kilometers) north-northwest of Baghdad. The officer spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the news media. The helicopter attack came two days after a suicide truck bombing killed at least nine people, including Iraqi soldiers, outside a military base in Samarra .
Wall Street Isn't Fixed: TBTF Is Alive And More Dangerous Than Ever Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2014 18:33 -0400 AIG BAC Bank of America Bank of America Bank Run Bear Stearns CDS Citigroup Discount Window Fail fixed Fractional Reserve Banking Free Money Gambling LBO Lehman Main Street Meltdown Merrill Merrill Lynch Momentum Chasing Moral Hazard Morgan Stanley None TARP Too Big To Fail in Share 2 Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, Practically since the day Lehman went down in September 2008 Washington has been conducting a monumental farce. It has beenpretending to up-root the causesof the thundering financial crisis which struck that month and toenact measures insuring that it would never happen again. In fact, however,official policy has done just the opposite. The Fed’s massive money printing campaignhas perpetuated and drastically enlargedthe Wall Street casino, making the pre-crisis gamblers in CDOs, CDSand other derivatives appear like pikers compared to the present momentum chasing madness. In a nutshell, the Fed’s prolonged regime of ZIRP and wealth effects based “puts” under risk assets has destroyed two-way markets. The market’s natural mechanism of risk containment and stabilization—-short sellers—has been driven from the casino. Accordingly, carry-trade speculators engorged with free money funding have taken the market to lunatic heights, while leaving it vulnerable to aviolentcollapse upon an unexpecteddrop because the market’s naturalbraking mechanism—shortsellers taking profits—-has been eviscerated. At the same time,the giant regulatory diversion known as Dodd-Frank has actually permitted theTBTF banks to geteven bigger and more dangerous. Indeed, JPM and BAC were taken to their present unmanageable size by regulators—ostensibly fighting the last outbreak of TBTF—who imposed or acquiesced to the shotgun mergers of late 2008. So now these sameregulators, who have spent four years stumbling around in the Dodd-Frank puzzle palace confecting thousands of pages of indecipherable regulations, slam their wards for not having sufficiently robust “living wills”. C’mon! This is just another Washington double-shuffle. The very idea that $2 trillion global bankingbehemoths like JPMorgan or Bankof America couldbe entrusted to write-upstandby plans fortheir ownorderly and antiseptic bankruptcy is not onlyjust plain stupid; italso drips with political cynicism and cowardice. If they are too big to fail, they are too big to exist. Period. Indeed, it is utterly amazing that adult legislators and regulators could even take the idea of a “living will” seriously—-let alone believe that they could possibly thwart the recurrence of another outbreak of so-called “financial contagion”. Yet so thick is the beltway cynicism and so complete is the K-Street domination of policy-making thata trite bureaucratic gimmick like the “living will” has become a major component of so-called macro-prudential policy. So there is nothing to do except go back to the fundamentals. First and foremost, the September 2008 meltdown was not a main street banking problem; it was a crisis confined to the canyons of Wall Street, owing to the fact that the gambling houses domiciled there had massively bloated their balance sheets with toxic assets and risky derivatives trades, and then funded these balance sheets leveraged at 30:1 with huge amounts of “hot money” in the form of repo and unsecured wholesale loans. As I demonstrated in the Great Deformation, the “bank run” was almostentirely in the Wall Street wholesale market. By contrast, therewas neverany danger ofretail runs at the corner branch bank offices, and the overwhelming majority of the7,000 main street banks did not own the kind oftoxic securitized assets that were roilingWall Street. In fact, the wholesale market runs in the canyons of Wall Street were actually a positive, economically therapeutic event.They had already taken out three of the recklessgambling houses—- Bear Stearns, Lehman and Merrill Lynch—-andwere fixingto finish off the remainder, that is, Goldman and Morgan Stanley. Had the market been allowed to finish off the work of the economic gods in late September 2008, the TBTF problem would have been substantially alleviated. Today there might have existed a half dozen “sons of Goldman” in the form of MA, trading, investment banking and asset management boutiques—run by chastened veterans who lost their lunch during the 2008 Wall Street cleansing. The excuse for Washington’s massive intervention against the free market in the form of TARP and the Fed’s monumental flood of liquidity, of course, is that the US economy was about to be annihilated by something called financial “contagion”. But that is a specious urban legend invented by the crony capitalists who controlled the Treasury and the money-printers who had fueled the housing and credit bubble at the Fed. As I have also shown, for example,AIG’s dozens of insurance subsidiaries were money good and would have been protected in bankruptcy by insurance regulators and capital maintenance rules, while settlement ofthe holding company’s fraudulent CDS insurance would have beenparceled out pennies on the dollar by a Chapter 11 judge to the dozen giant global banks who had stupidly attempted to turn toxic CDOs into AAA credits. Likewise, FDIC could have liquidated Citigroup’s regulated bank, while allowing the gamblers who bought thestock, bonds and other obligations of the holding company to face their just deserts. In short, TBTF became a “problem” to be ostensibly remediedwith bureaucratic malarkey like living wills primarily because Washington made it a problem—- by means ofits panicked bailouts ofWall Street in the fall of 2008. Indeed, the true solution to TBTF is always and everywhere toallow the free market to cleanse its own excesses and imbalances and toimpose financial discipline and demiseupon outbreaks ofreckless gambling and leverage when they occur. Unfortunately, even if Washington were to refrain from ad hoc bailouts, the free market cure would be perennially compromised by the giant moral hazard posed by deposit insurance and the Fed’s cheap money discount window. Owing to these policyinstitutions, which systematically encourage excessive gambling by their beneficiaries, US banksare inherent wards of the state—including the easily abused privilege of fractional reserve banking conferred byregulatory charters. The right thing to do would be to abolish these sources of moral hazard and tell the K-Street financial lobbies to fold up theirplush tents because their employers are now all expected to sink or swim on the free market. Needless to say, the chances that Washington would permit the Wall Street gambling houses to bereturned to the unfettered free market that they profess to defend—are somewhere between slim and none. Accordingly, a second best solution is warranted, and it could readily be done.And it would be far more effective than the lunacy of living wills and all the other bureaucraticmumbo-jumbo that has come out of Dodd-Frank. First, Washington shouldre-enacta strict version of Glass- Steagall. Only “narrow banks” which take deposits and make consumer and business loans would have access to the Fed’s discount window. By contrast, propriety trading, underwriting, merchant banking, asset management and all the rest of the financial services sectors would be banned at regulated banks and sent back to the free market where they belong. Secondly, a ceiling on regulated bank size would be established —perhaps measured at 1% of GDP or $200 billion in terms of asset scale.There are no demonstrated economies of scale in deposit and loan banking above that size, anyway. Stated differently, banks wishing to indulge in the moral hazard of deposit insurance and accessing the Fed’s discount window would not have to prove they were not “too big to fail” or that they had a viable “living will”. Instead, a TBTF law would do it for them in the form of a statutory cap on the size of regulated banks. To be sure, Wall Street would scream that such a regime would interfere with the ability of small business and American consumers to get cheap loans.But in a national economy that has gone through a rolling 30-year LBO resulting in $60 trillion of credit market debt outstanding and which sportsleverage ratios against income in all sectors that are off the historical charts—that complaint has no merit. Making debt more expensive and permitting it to beeconomically priced on the free market is, in fact, just what is needed to eventually cure the nation’s debt-ridden economic malaise.
Time For Bernanke To Retract His Sworn Testimony To Congress Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/03/2012 20:44 -0500 Ben Bernanke Gross Domestic Product JPMorgan Chase Testimony Three months ago, as part of our ongoing explanation of what happens next to the Fed's balance sheet (which is now established as official canon in advance of the December 12th FOMC, when Bernanke will effectively announce QE4 consisting of $40 billion in MBS and $45 billion in unsterilized TSY purchases as we predicted the day QE3 was announced ), we said that "the Fed will continue increasing its 10 Yr equivalents by roughly 12% (of the total market) per year, for at least the next 3 years, at which point it will own 60% of the entire Treasury market. It means that the Fed will monetize all gross long-term issuance every year for the next 3 years ." Most looked at the bold sentence without it registering just what it means. Perhaps, now that the "serious" media has finally taken on the topic of applying a calculator to the one driver of all marginal risk demand, it will register a little better. In a Bloomberg story titled, appropriately enough " Treasury Scarcity to Grow as Fed Buys 90% of New Bonds " we read that "the Fed, in its efforts to boost growth, will add about $45 billion of Treasuries a month to the $40 billion in mortgage debt it’s purchasing, effectively absorbing about 90 percent of net new dollar-denominated fixed-income assets, according to JPMorgan Chase Co ." Actually that's incorrect and it is more like 100%. What is however 100% correct is what the bolded means in plain language: it is now accepted that the Fed will outright monetize all gross US issuance. Let us repeat this sentence for those who just had flashbacks to Adam Fergusson's " When money dies ." The Fed is now monetizing practically all net new debt. So what did the Chairman say about this absolutely certain eventuality back in 2009 to Congress... Our only question: was the Chairman simply lying of lying under oath? And finally, because it appears it takes the MSM between 3 and 36 months to catch up to Zero Hedge, there is another relevant question that we posed 3 months ago: Another way of visualizing this is how many assets as a percentage of US GDP the Fed will hold on its books. Currently, this number is 18%. By the end of 2013, the Fed's historical flow operations will be accountable for 24% of US GDP . Why is this important? Simple: when the time comes for the Fed to unwind its balance sheet, if ever, the reverse Flow process will be responsible for deducting at least 24% of US GDP at the time when said tightening happens. If ever. Hence no unwind. We are confident to state this, just as we were confident with our other forecast from three months ago : What is scariest, is that as of this moment, all of this is priced in. Any incremental gains in the stock market will have to come from additional easing over and above what Bernanke just announced. What Bernanke implicitly, and in one week explicitly, has announced is that it now takes $85 billion in monthly Flow injection from the Fed just to keep the market from collapsing . Oh, yes, and the market still has to surpass the highs seen the day after QEternity was announced. Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 43 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 16440 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: What Mitt Romney Also Said: A Glimpse Of The Endgame? The Fed's Balance At The End Of 2013: $4 Trillion Spot The Foreign Demand For US Treasurys Under Obama Guest Post: Why I Don't Vote The Bernanke Put is a Lie
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