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All.About.Market.Timing.The.Easy.Way.to.Get.Started
投资时间的好书！
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LESLIE N. MASONSON McGraw-Hill New York Chicago San Francisco Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan New Delhi San Juan Seoul Singapore Sydney Toronto
Copyright © 2004 by Leslie M. Masonson. All rights reserved. Manufactured in the United States of America. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. 0-07-143608-1 The material in this eBook also appears in the print version of this title: 0-07-141331-6 All trademarks are trademarks of their respective owners. Rather than put a trademark symbol after every occurrence of a trademarked name, we use names in an editorial fashion only, and to the benefit of the trademark owner, with no intention of infringement of the trademark. Where such designations appear in this book, they have been printed with initial caps. McGraw-Hill eBooks are available at special quantity discounts to use as premiums and sales promotions, or for use in corporate training programs. For more information, please contact George Hoare, Special Sales, at george_hoare@mcgraw-hill.com or (212) 904-4069. TERMS OF USE This is a copyrighted work and The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (“McGraw-Hill”) and its licensors reserve all rights in and to the work. Use of this work is subject to these terms. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act of 1976 and the right to store and retrieve one copy of the work, you may not decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, reproduce, modify, create derivative works based upon, transmit, distribute, disseminate, sell, publish or sublicense the work or any part of it without McGraw-Hill’s prior consent. You may use the work for your own noncommercial and personal use; any other use of the work is strictly prohibited. Your right to use the work may be terminated if you fail to comply with these terms. THE WORK IS PROVIDED “AS IS”. McGRAW-HILL AND ITS LICENSORS MAKE NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, ADEQUACY OR COMPLETENESS OF OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THE WORK, INCLUDING ANY INFORMATION THAT CAN BE ACCESSED THROUGH THE WORK VIA HYPERLINK OR OTHERWISE, AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIM ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. McGraw-Hill and its licensors do not warrant or guarantee that the functions contained in the work will meet your requirements or that its operation will be uninterrupted or error free. Neither McGraw-Hill nor its licensors shall be liable to you or anyone else for any inaccuracy, error or omission, regardless of cause, in the work or for any damages resulting therefrom. McGraw-Hill has no responsibility for the content of any information accessed through the work. Under no circumstances shall McGraw-Hill and/or its licensors be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, punitive, consequential or similar damages that result from the use of or inability to use the work, even if any of them has been advised of the possibility of such damages. This limitation of liability shall apply to any claim or cause whatsoever whether such claim or cause arises in contract, tort or otherwise. DOI: 10.1036/0071436081
C O N T E N T S Foreword ix Acknowledgments xi Introduction xiii PART 1 MARKET-TIMING BASICS Chapter 1 The Stock Market = Bull Markets + Bear Markets 3 Chapter 2 The Buy-and-Hold Myth 23 Chapter 3 Market-Timing: What You Need to Know39 Chapter 4 Ten Indicators to Determine the Market’s Health 51 Chapter 5 Specialized Mutual Funds: Index, Sector, and Leveraged Funds 75 Chapter 6 Exchange-Traded Funds 89 PART 2 MARKET-TIMING STRATEGIES Chapter 7 Calendar-Based Investing: The Best Six Months Strategy 99 vii For more information about this title, click here. Copyright 2004 by Leslie M. Masonson. Click Here for Terms of Use. Chapter 8 Combining Presidential Cycle Years with Seasonality 119 Chapter 9 Using Moving Averages 131 Chapter 10 Value Line 4 Percent Strategy 153 Chapter 11 Nasdaq Composite 6 Percent Strategy 183 PART 3 MARKET-TIMING RESOURCES Chapter 12 Market-Timing Resources: Newsletters, Web Sites, and Advisors 193 Chapter 13 Market-Timing Software 217 Epilogue 227 Bibliography and Web Sites 231 Index 235 About the Author 245
Market timing is not a fun vocation or avocation. It is tough and ugly. I know this well, because I’ve been a market timer in the trenches since 1983, both as an investor and as an advisor. Timing requires thick skin and iron resolve. Because it is not understood, market timing is almost universally scorned on Wall Street. Yet market timing is an important tool for investors. When it is used consistently over long periods of time, timing can dramatically improve returns while it reduces risk, as Leslie Masonson has demonstrated repeatedly in this book. If this book is studied by the establishment financial media, it can help to reduce a tide of misguided negative articles about timing. Too many financial writers have discovered they can easily “prove” that timing doesn’t work and can’t possibly work. However, those authors rarely specify any measurable definition of what would be necessary for a strategy to qualify as one that “works.” I’ve found that timing is 100 percent successful at reducing market risk, by periodically getting investors out of the market. Every day your assets are in a money market fund, that’s a day they are not at risk in the market. If timing keeps you on the sidelines 25 percent of the time, timing has reduced your risk by 25 percent. Results from timing almost never look like returns from a buyand- hold approach. This can be disconcerting and upsetting. But to a long-term investor, this noncorrelation amounts to a form of diversification. Why do so many people believe that timing doesn’t work? I believe the answer is twofold. First, most investors who undertake market timing are not prepared for the rigorous discipline it requires. They quickly become discouraged when they discover that timing systems are statistically “wrong” much more often than they are “right.” ix Copyright 2004 by Leslie M. Masonson. Click Here for Terms of Use. Second, market timing is misunderstood. No investing rule is more fundamental than this: Don’t invest in something unless you understand it. I think the reason timing disappoints so many investors is that they don’t understand it. Masonson’s book will help remedy that. He has put together the information and the tools that investors need to make timing work for them. He has taken a complex topic and made it accessible for real people. The biggest problem facing most investors is that they need the potential growth they can get from owning equities—while at the same time equities are quite volatile—too much so, for most people. As far as I know, there are only two solutions that make sense. One is to allocate as much as necessary of a portfolio to fixedincome funds. This brings stability, but at the cost of the long-term returns of equities. The second solution, the topic of this book, is market timing. As this book shows, mechanical market timing makes it possible for investors to achieve the returns they need at lower volatility. And that makes it easier for those investors to stay the course. Almost all my own investments are governed by market timing. Even if I could “know” that I could get a better long-term return without timing, I am just not comfortable with a buy-andhold approach. I have worked hard all my life to accumulate assets, and I’m simply not willing to passively let the market (which, in effect, is all other investors) take them away. This book is for investors who share my conservative approach, who believe, as I do, that hanging onto their money is as important as making it grow. In this excellent guide, those investors will find everything they need to determine if timing is for them—and if they have what it takes to be successful. Paul Merriman Paul Merriman is founder and president of Merriman Capital Management in Seattle, and is author of two books on investing. x FOREWORD
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