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亚洲股票资本市场每周通讯- 截至2009年7月10号
英翻中
US and European equity markets traded down last week whilst Asian markets posted mixed performances with market conditions defined by a distinct lack of direction, conviction and liquidity. （conviction，
是什么意思）美国和欧洲股市上周股价下跌，而亚洲市场呈现混乱表现,市场情况明显缺乏方向，信心和流通性。


India was the worst performing market in Asia after investor were left disappointed with the 2009/10 budget which does not adequately address the issues the market was looking for, including disinvestment leading to the
reduction of fiscal deficit and infrastructure development.  印度成为了亚洲表现最差的市场，因为投资者对2009/10年度财政预算案表示失望。此预算案没有充分解决市场寻求的问题，包括会导致减少财政赤字和基础设施发展的撤资问题。


t is clearly evident that investors remain concerned that Q2 earnings reports will point towards a slow recovery in corporate earnings and the global economy in general. Unless there is a catalyst that offers real optimism that an economic recovery is taking hold, markets are likely to stay range-bound throughout the holiday period.很显然，投资者仍在关注的是第二季度盈利报告能否指示出企业盈利和普遍范围的全球经济将缓慢复苏。市场将在整个节日期间呈窄幅震荡,除非某乐观因素促使经济复苏稳固。



Markets experienced a short-term rebound post the better-than expected Q2 results from Alcoa but any attempted rallies last week were met by selling pressure or lack of liquidity to result in any sustainable gains 股票市场在美国铝业第二季度表现高于预期后经历了一个短暂的反弹，但上周股票价格的回升因受到抛售压力或缺乏可持续获利的流动性任而受阻.
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Investor caution was also exasperated by China reporting a much higher than expected

June loan growth, adding to the rising concerns of an asset bubble caused by excessive lending. Crude oil fell below $60 a barrel for the first time since May on concerns that a slower-than-expected economic recovery as well as concerns about OPEC countries exceeding their supply quotas will drive down demand tension. 投资者因中国报告了比预期高的多的六月份贷款增长变得更为谨慎, 这加剧了投资者对因过度贷款的问题而产生的资产泡沫的担心。自五月以来原油价格首次跌破每桶60美元，因为人们担心经济复苏过于缓慢，以及石油输出组织国家的过量供应会导致需求张力下降。





Meanwhile, the IMF raised its 2010 global growth forecast to 2.5%, up from the 1.9% it forecast in April. The IMF also forecast a contraction of 1.4% in 2009, worse than an April forecast for a 1.3% decline, cautioning that a recovery will be "sluggish" and said that repairing the international banking system is a priority. With investors now firmly focused on the Q2 earnings season better-than-expected results as well as concrete evidence of a second US stimulus may be able to shift investor sentiment into more positive territory in the coming weeks 与此同时，国际货币基金组织将2010年全球经济增长预测从四月份预测的 1.9%调高至2.5％。还预测了2009年1.4％的跌幅，这比四月份的预测1.3％的要严重些。这警示了复苏是“疲软”现象。国际货币基金组织表示修复国际银行系统是一个优先考虑事项。现在，投资者紧紧关注好于预期的第二季度盈利状况，以及有明显证据表明的美国第二度经济刺激可使投资者意向在未来几周转为积极。

In the US, initial claims for unemployment fell by 52,000 to 565,000 in the week ending July 4, the lowest level since January. Continuing claims rose 159,000 to a record 6.88m in the week ending June 27, more than double the level during the same period in 2008. The US government successfully auctioned US$65bn in 3-year, 10-year and 30-year treasure notes with each auction about 2.5x covered。（啥意思） 在美国截止至7月4日这周，首次申请失业下跌52,000人至565,000人达到自一月份以来最低水平。截至6月27日，持续申请失业救济上升159，000人从而达到历史新高688万人，这比2008年的同期水平上升一倍多。美国**成功拍卖了65亿美元的3年期，10年起，及30年期的国库券，每个竞卖大约2.5倍的备兑认购。

In Europe, markets were negatively impacted by a report that economic activity in the euro area in Q1 2009 contracted by the most since records began in 1995 on plummeting investment and exports, with GDP for the 16-nation bloc shrinking 2.5% QoQ and 4.9% YoY in Q1. Elsewhere, the BoE kept the interest rate at 0.5% and decided to continue with its asset purchase scheme totalling £125bn by utilizing central bank reserve  欧洲股市受到负面影响，源于报告认为2009年第一季度欧元区经济活动跌破自1995年记录以来的投资和出口急剧下降的最低点。16个国家集团国内生产总值比上一个季度萎缩2.5％，与第一季度同比萎缩了4.9％。在其他地方，英国央行把利率维持在0.5％，并决定用央行储备继续它的总额为125亿英镑的资产购买计划，

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关键词：资本市场 PART ART unemployment Successfully performing conviction direction 欧洲股市 investor

part 2

In China, the Central Bank announced that new loans totalled Rmb1.53tn whilst FX reserves are estimated to have climbed $67.8bn in Q2 to a record $2.02tn. The Ministry of Finance failed to sell all Rmb28bn ($4.1bn) of 1-year government bonds it offered at an auction selling only Rmb27.5bn of the notes at a yield of 1.06%. China's economic growth may have accelerated to as much as 7.5% in Q2 and may expand 8% in Q3 and 9% in Q4 on surging FAI and loan growth, according to the central bank

在中国，中央银行宣布新的贷款总额为人民币1.53兆,而外汇储备总额预计第二季度会攀升67.8亿美元从而达到 2.02兆美元的纪录。财政部试图出售面值28个亿人民币（大约等同于4.1个亿美元）一年期**债券，收益率为1.06%，以拍卖方式折价发行（大约为27.5个亿人民币），这一行动以失败而告终。根据中央银行的消息,中国的经济将因固定资产投资和贷款增长加速增长，第二季度可能达到7.5％，第三季度可能达到8%,而第四季度可能达到9%。

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In Asia, the BoK raised its GDP forecasts for 2009 and 2010 predicting that the economy will shrink 1.6% in 2009, less than the 2.4% decline predicted in April. For 2010 the BoK estimates the economy will expand 3.6% compared with a previous estimate of 3.5% growth. The BoK also kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record-low 2% whilst the Philippine central bank cut its benchmark rate by 25bps to 4%, the sixth cut in seven months. Japanese machine orders unexpectedly fell for a third month, declining 3% in May from April, below consensus expectations of a 2% increase。
在亚洲，韩国央行调高了2009年和2010年国内生产总值预测，并预测经济将在2009年萎缩1.6％，这低于四月份的预测值2.4%。对于2010年，韩国银行估计经济扩张将为3.6％，而非之前的预测值3.5%。韩国央行还将基准利率维持在纪录低点2％，而菲律宾央行下调基准利率25个基点到4％，这是七个月来第六次下调基准利率。日本机械订单意外连续三个月下滑，从4月到5月份下降了3％，低于2％的增长预期。
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In ECM news, Deutsche Bank completed a US$900m combined offering for Evraz Group, a Russian steel company, consisting of a US$600m CB and US$300m of equity

根据股票资本市场的消息，德意志银行完成了对俄罗斯钢铁公司耶弗拉兹集团的9亿美元的首次公开上市和可转换债券的联合发行，其中包括6亿美元的可转换债券和3亿美元的股票。